Opinion: Ethiopia won't disintegrate

Many people think that Ethiopia will disintegrate as a result of the ongoing Tigray conflict, I think this will never happen for the following reasons:
1) Somalia is a perfect example of what could happen to Ethiopia in the worst case scenario for them, some areas Ethiopia may declare independence without being recognized like Somaliland did. The Rest of the country would have some kind of weak provisional government but the international community will never recognize border changes as a result of a war. Those times are over and ended in the 1990s with the collapse of the Soviet union
2) Ethiopia still has some kind of functioning government, the TPLF isn't as stupid ad the somali rebel movement who started to destroy their own country after they defeated Siad Barre. Tplf had experience with ruling a country, if they take Addis they will probably find a solution to keep Ethiopia together.
3) the only faction Ethiopia that genuinely wants independence is the somali region. Somalis in Ethiopia don't want to rule others, they just want to mind their own business. On the other hand amharas, tigray and oromos want to take all of Ethiopia and rule it. This means they will try to avoid separatism. If we look at somalia's case the USC, SNM and to some extent the SSDF had zero interest in ruling the whole of Somalia, they wanted their qabil to be powerful but they never had a plan to keep somalia under their rule.
 
I agree, tplf knows their region is not a viable state. Oromia has the size & numbers to have huge political influence in the country with legitimate elections, so secession isn’t the smartest move. After hundreds of years they are closer than ever to wielding true power in Ethiopia. They can eventually get their way if they are patient a little longer.

the best way for Somali region to get independence is through development, improve education of its people and grow economy & give voice to every Somali resident. Eventually they will be heard. Hard to be heard when your region & people are dirt poor. Let them be self sufficient from Addis first. Somalia should build roads to the region to every city and loosen their dependence on Addis.
 
coutries desintegrate when 100 million people are jobless and hungry
When I say Ethiopia won't disintegrate I mean that they won't cease to exist as an officially recognized country. They Will probably have huge problems but on paper Ethiopia will still be united just like Somalia is
 
When I say Ethiopia won't disintegrate I mean that they won't cease to exist as an officially recognized country. They Will probably have huge problems but on paper Ethiopia will still be united just like Somalia is
somalia is far from united, there are many regional governments and somaliland is an autonomous state, somalia has a federal government only in name and recognition but there is no such thing in function

somali receives huge amounts of remittances from the diaspor that supports the economy, its not the case in ethiopia, the rely more on exports and access to financial markets

also ethiopia has been sanctioned by the US and there probably will be more as the civil war rages. the collapse of the economy will be inevitable and it pretty bad in a very poor country

not to mention ethiopia has countless ethnic minorities who have their own regions, and autonomy will look more attractive when the federal government is failing
 

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The TPLF now learned the existance of a powerful federal government is itself a long term threat.

Similiar to how its in the interest of PL/JL for there to be an independent Hirshabelle KG etc it is in the interest of Tigray to have the feds power dissected into the different regions which individually are not capable threats.

Amhara will lose everything after this war.
 
@Som if the Ethiopian national military collapses do you think the UN will or even should impose a total arms embargo on Ethiopia the same way we have been embargoed for the last 29 years
 
@Removed the Ethiopian federal government should only properly control Addis Ababa and Dire Dawa since only those two places are chartered cities that are independent of any regional state. Every regional state in Ethiopia should have Puntland style confederal maximum autonomy
 

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the best way for Somali region to get independence is through development, improve education of its people and grow economy & give voice to every Somali resident. Eventually they will be heard. Hard to be heard when your region & people are dirt poor. Let them be self sufficient from Addis first. Somalia should build roads to the region to every city and loosen their dependence on Addis.

Did south Sudan or Eritrea get their independence by doing all this, Ofc not :mjlol::pachah1:

The only way to achieve total independence is to fight hard and earn it. Nothing else will ever work
 
Did south Sudan or Eritrea get their independence by doing all this, Ofc not :mjlol::pachah1:

The only way to achieve total independence is to fight hard and earn it. Nothing else will ever work
Every case is unique. Somalia nor Somali galbeed will have the military power to challenge Ethiopia and it's allies militarily for many decades to come, they won't have the momentum Eritrea had. You have to be realistic about this. An Al Shabab style insurgency will never work, you would need to march to Addis and overthrow the government, and thats not gonna happen any time soon.

Have you noticed how civilized the UK/Scotland secession talk is? Uk not threatening to invade. When your people are economically strong you have more political power and autonomy. Plus once you have good economy in 15-20yrs or so you can sustain a potential conflict. The era of multi decade guerrilla insurgencies are over, what Eritrea did is not possible anymore imo

and South Sudan is quite different, there was the Muslim vs Christian trope and a lot of international sympathy, also due to the huge casualties in that conflict. Ethiopia is bad but no where close that.
 
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Every state is viable. Luxembourg is a viable state, so is Belgium. The viability of a state has nothing to do with its size and population.
 
True, not because they're better than us, but because the west won't allow it, whereas the west destroyed Somalia.

You have to ask yourself why America is *****ing so much now while they were quiet as combined amhara/oromo and soldiers were massacring somalis from galbeed to mogadisho.


Ethiopia would disintegrate in less than a day if they were left to themselves.
 
True, not because they're better than us, but because the west won't allow it, whereas the west destroyed Somalia.

You have to ask yourself why America is *****ing so much now while they were quiet as combined amhara/oromo and soldiers were massacring somalis from galbeed to mogadisho.


Ethiopia would disintegrate in less than a day if they were left to themselves.
At no point in history has the west done anything but hinder and destroy Somalis and Muslims at large.

Anyone who thinks they will get anything else out of them is delusional.

In fact their entire issue with Abiy was his change in policy towards Somalia. It is the tripartite agreement they are panicked about.

They dont care about genocide like you mentioned nor do they care about the dam which they supported throughout its construction under their puppets TPLF.
 
At no point in history has the west done anything but hinder and destroy Somalis and Muslims at large.

Anyone who thinks they will get anything else out of them is delusional.

In fact their entire issue with Abiy was his change in policy towards Somalia. It is the tripartite agreement they are panicked about.

They dont care about genocide like you mentioned nor do they care about the dam which they supported throughout its construction under their puppets TPLF.
They don't care about genocide when it's somalis/muslims suffering. Remember how they gave south sudan a country, during that time, Ethiopia was doing worse things in somali galbeed and the west never even discussed it.

Ethiopia is a christian nation, and no matter how bad it gets, America will not allow it to break apart, and it most certainly will not allow muslim somalis taking a huge chunk of the country and gaining independence.

It's a shame.
 
They don't care about genocide when it's somalis/muslims suffering. Remember how they gave south sudan a country, during that time, Ethiopia was doing worse things in somali galbeed and the west never even discussed it.

Ethiopia is a christian nation, and no matter how bad it gets, America will not allow it to break apart, and it most certainly will not allow muslim somalis taking a huge chunk of the country and gaining independence.

It's a shame.
Thats why it is ideal for the declining western empire to lose here especially and everywhere else.
 
Thats why it is ideal for the declining western empire to lose here especially and everywhere else.
how can they lose? it is impossible.
who do you think is arming laangaab tigrays? are we meant to believe the same tigrays who got chased out to the mountains are now threatening to take adis ababa?


abiye goes, federalism survives, another oromo becomes PM and the same old gumaysi continues for us Somalis. anyone who is familiar with Ethiopia will tell you that's the only outcome.
 
how can they lose? it is impossible.
who do you think is arming laangaab tigrays? are we meant to believe the same tigrays who got chased out to the mountains are now threatening to take adis ababa?


abiye goes, federalism survives, another oromo becomes PM and the same old gumaysi continues for us Somalis. anyone who is familiar with Ethiopia will tell you that's the only outcome.
It is not impossible and they have been losing in many places as of late. They are attempting to remove leaders but all they have had really lately is the media pressure.

Check out how it went for them in Venezuela recently.


The Yankee Plot to Overthrow Nicolás Maduro and Steal Venezuela’s Oil​


 
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