Map of control in Somalia (Updated Nov 2025) How cooked are we?

[3LetterzMM]

Blame HSM. He preferred to engage in nepotism and clan musical chairs over proper state and army building. 4.5 also stalled a lot of progress since it allows a lot of corruption.

Oh I blame him he’s half the reason why things are so shitty right now

 

[Barkhadle1520]

Aight u win haji but still 2012 was a long time ago you’d think the govt would have a better grip on their land by now.

They were literally doing nothing for the past 13 years, with all the free aid money flowing in unchecked this stalemate made a lot of millionaires, HSM was just another abti wearing macwis before fgs

Whats funny is now that its been confirmed that foreign aid/troops will pull out by 2027, they're going mad and trying to push random tax policies that all failed, they had a decade to prepare for whats coming in the next 2 years, it will be brutal if theres no a rapid change

 

[The Oponian Guild]

Ponteland is struggling against ISIS and also have internal schism between LK and MJ and have problem with Khatumo state.

Puntland is lucky it didn't fell into chaos already

I’m guessing you fell down the stairs recently?

 

[Ultra Opinionated]

It's Ironic either side could've won years ago if they stop being corrupt or insane.

2008 was peak GWOT, there’s no way a group like AS was going to be tolerated. They were basically what ISIS was in 2014.

 

[Barkhadle1520]

2008 was peak GWOT, there’s no way a group like AS was going to be tolerated. They were basically what ISIS was in 2014.

Nah Shabaab still had massive support in 2008 until Bakara market went kaboom

 

[tyrannicalmanager]

2008 was peak GWOT, there’s no way a group like AS was going to be tolerated. They were basically what ISIS was in 2014.

They nearly won 2009 though.

 

[Ultra Opinionated]

Nah Shabaab still had massive support in 2008 until Bakara market went kaboom

They nearly won 2009 though.

Let’s say they win. What happens next is just a repeat of 2006. Likely with official American intervention.

AS were never getting an emirate, that’s a fact.

 

[Mohamedamiin120]

They were literally doing nothing for the past 13 years, with all the free aid money flowing in unchecked this stalemate made a lot of millionaires, HSM was just another abti wearing macwis before fgs

Whats funny is now that its been confirmed that foreign aid/troops will pull out by 2027, they're going mad and trying to push random tax policies that all failed, they had a decade to prepare for whats coming in the next 2 years, it will be brutal if theres no a rapid change

Before his political career he actually was an ikhwani, no joke

He was a member of Al-Islah, the Muslim Brotherhood's branch organization in Somalia. They were anti-violent though and this caused a split in the party when Ethiopia invaded (HSM was apart of the pro-peace faction, which obviously caused him to drift to Xamar in the upcoming civil war)

 

[reer]

Somali men from the age 45-70 of this generation can’t govern or run shit. The ones below that age back home have unsuitable education levels and most diaspora will never come back or are culturally detached from the motherland. The cause of rut is partly cultural (tribal impulsivity) and also external proxy wars against the Somali resistance psyche and physical violence against Somali nationalists.

AS is actually better at providing a semblance of security and structure between sub clans in the places they control in comparison to some areas run by tribal forces. This is the sad reality as to why some Qabils in the South work with them. They’re just not smart enough to run an entire country. AS will 100 worse than Taliban governance if they take over the country.

i disagree sxb. ruling konfuria will be totally different to before. nowadays somalia is part of the global vilalge and the population has exploded. theyll have to do big recruitment in law enforcement so theyll be ideologically more open out of pure necessity.

 

[Riftvalley]

i disagree sxb. ruling konfuria will be totally different to before. nowadays somalia is part of the global vilalge and the population has exploded. theyll have to do big recruitment in law enforcement so theyll be ideologically more open out of pure necessity.

They haven’t built a single sustainable hospital or large scale economic project despite collecting more lacag from Somalis than most Somali admins. If they were to take power, they would get isolated, hit with sanctions and would have little clue how to generate enough revenue to counter the eventual loss of aid money and possibly human/economic movement into Somalia. It would also become harder for the diaspora to invest and visit the motherland. It wouldn’t matter if they were “ideologically open”.

 

[Ultra Opinionated]

They haven’t built a single sustainable hospital or large scale economic project despite collecting more lacag from Somalis than most Somali admins. If they were to take power, they would get isolated, hit with sanctions and would have little clue how to generate enough revenue to counter the eventual loss of aid money and possibly human/economic movement into Somalia. It would also become harder for the diaspora to invest and visit the motherland. It wouldn’t matter if they were “ideologically open”.

They would try to hold trading hostage by threatening to unleash piracy again. They would put an ideological/religious spin on it, with some spiel about Gaza, but it would be an extortion racket, like everything else they do.

They are less anti-education than the Taliban, but other than that they would be rather similar in terms of governance. Only real difference is that AS are Shaafi’s and TB are Hanafis.

For infrastructure they have built some things like schools and hospitals but yes Somalia would basically become a black hole under them.

 

[Riftvalley]

They would try to hold trading hostage by threatening to unleash piracy again. They would put an ideological/religious spin on it, with some spiel about Gaza, but it would be an extortion racket, like everything else they do.

They are less anti-education than the Taliban, but other than that they would be rather similar in terms of governance. Only real difference is that AS are Shaafi’s and TB are Hanafis.

Also, Talibs made deals with India, Russia etc. even then they are massively struggling due to a lack of knowhow and political/economic isolation. AS would seek to antagonise Ethiopia and Kenya if they ever took over Muqdisho. They would have bigger issues with healthcare than the talibs. I am pretty sure India, Kenya, Ethiopia, Turkey, would all limit Somalis travelling for urgent medical care. They don’t have an internal healthcare agency solution judging by the fact the areas they have controlled for 20 years are in dire healthcare situation.

 

[Ultra Opinionated]

Also, Talibs made deals with India, Russia etc. even then they are massively struggling due to a lack of knowhow and political/economic isolation. AS would seek to antagonise Ethiopia and Kenya if they ever took over Muqdisho. They would have bigger issues with healthcare than the talibs. I am pretty sure India, Kenya, Ethiopia, Turkey, would all limit Somalis travelling for urgent medical care. They don’t have an internal healthcare agency solution judging by the fact the areas they have controlled for 20 years are in dire healthcare situation.

No doubt. Main issue is sharia law and ties to AQ, two things neither AS nor the Taliban can give up on.
They would have to let in NGOs in order to fix health and food issues, which again would never happen

 

[Barkhadle1520]

Let’s say they win. What happens next is just a repeat of 2006. Likely with official American intervention.

AS were never getting an emirate, that’s a fact.

Allah allam what the geopolitical situation in the world will be you never know maybe when that happens the US will be fully focused on Venezuela

But if Shabaab take over Xamar and depose the FGS, SL and PL are sure to get their ticket out of this mess with full international support, Reer waqoyi in any case are going to benefit from the stalemate ending one way or the other, its just more incline towards Shabaab winning so far

 

[Barkhadle1520]

They would try to hold trading hostage by threatening to unleash piracy again. They would put an ideological/religious spin on it, with some spiel about Gaza, but it would be an extortion racket, like everything else they do.

They are less anti-education than the Taliban, but other than that they would be rather similar in terms of governance. Only real difference is that AS are Shaafi’s and TB are Hanafis.

For infrastructure they have built some things like schools and hospitals but yes Somalia would basically become a black hole under them.

Piracy is a thing of the past there has been only one Pirate attack this whole year, and Shabaab are against piracy just like the ICU

 

[Barkhadle1520]

Before his political career he actually was an ikhwani, no joke

He was a member of Al-Islah, the Muslim Brotherhood's branch organization in Somalia. They were anti-violent though and this caused a split in the party when Ethiopia invaded (HSM was apart of the pro-peace faction, which obviously caused him to drift to Xamar in the upcoming civil war)

These "non violent" Sufi organizations have always been shady, even as Ethiopia was about to invade some of them were against the Itihad and ICU defending the country

 

[Barkhadle1520]

They haven’t built a single sustainable hospital or large scale economic project despite collecting more lacag from Somalis than most Somali admins. If they were to take power, they would get isolated, hit with sanctions and would have little clue how to generate enough revenue to counter the eventual loss of aid money and possibly human/economic movement into Somalia. It would also become harder for the diaspora to invest and visit the motherland. It wouldn’t matter if they were “ideologically open”.

They will probably unban the Charcoal trade and other illicit shady trades to get tax revenue, they will also try putting a tax on big companies like Hormuud which will get them a good amount of money

 

[Barkhadle1520]

No doubt. Main issue is sharia law and ties to AQ, two things neither AS nor the Taliban can give up on.
They would have to let in NGOs in order to fix health and food issues, which again would never happen

FGS also claims to rule by Sharia, but their justice system is still artificial

 

[Mohamedamiin120]

These "non violent" Sufi organizations have always been shady, even as Ethiopia was about to invade some of them were against the Itihad and ICU defending the country

Al-Islah and the Ikhwan to which it belongs is a Salafi organization, Al-Islah was formed in 1981 and was immediately banned on the same ground that the Ikhwan was banned- they operated underground as an illegal movement until the fall of the Somali Democratic Republic in '91

Also Al-Islah was apart of the ICU government, they had a split during the Ethiopian invasion but the majority stayed with the ARS, Shabaab, ASWJ, etc. Infact due to this the Ikhwan actually congratulated Sh. Shariif Ahmed when he became president. https://ikhwan.site/p-222191

 

[Barkhadle1520]

Al-Islah and the Ikhwan to which it belongs is a Salafi organization, Al-Islah was formed in 1981 and was immediately banned on the same ground that the Ikhwan was banned- they operated underground as an illegal movement until the fall of the Somali Democratic Republic in '91

Also Al-Islah was apart of the ICU government, they had a split during the Ethiopian invasion but the majority stayed with the ARS, Shabaab, ASWJ, etc. Infact due to this the Ikhwan actually congratulated Sh. Shariif Ahmed when he became president. https://ikhwan.site/p-222191

My bad, was just a wild assumption based on a previous reading