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Major Update on Oil deal

Aren't you forgetting something

Aad iyo aad I think this deal is very promising, I searched a lot and I couldn't find a deal as good as this in the whole continent
You’re lying. This is the worst deal on the continent, probably the worst in the world. What deal did you actually research? Name one oil agreement that has worse terms than this. That’s an incredibly bad-faith statement. It’s either you haven’t read the agreement at all, or you’re getting paid to say that.

You’re seriously claiming the fiscal terms in Article 4 are better than other African countries? What about the change of law provisions? The most-favored investment clause? You really think this deal is better than others in Africa? substantiate your claim. Show me which country oil agreement you researched and bring up if the terms that you compared in their respective agreements to come to the conclusion that ours is the best in Africa.
 
Name one oil agreement that has better terms than this
Man, you are engaging in bad faith. Every single one is. With respect you made a claim that after you researched you couldn’t find a better agreement. What agreement are you claiming is worse?

I don’t understand why you dodged questions that are directly challenging your false claims
 
This deal went through. Some of you need to get that through your head. Wont be thrown by any other candidate. Since they'll all get bribed
 
I haven't anything major from Turkey regarding the deal so far so its all from FGS perspective. Barkhadle already gave his take on this before.

This has been on my mind for a while.

At first glance 90% recovery cost seems very bad but when you realize that it means they will earn back their investment in less than 5 years it starts to sound better

:silanyosmile:

Assuming the cost per block would be around 2B$
View attachment 363356

And that the exploration (which is at 75% as of now) would end by the end of this year, the planning would take until 2027 and the development and drilling would take until the first few years of the next decade (approx. 2031)

This means that we would owe TPAO 2B$ x 3 blocks = 6B$

If each block generates at least 550M$/a year, 3 generate 1.5b$ a year and TPAO takes 90% (1.35B$) that would mean it would only take us a record time of 5 years or less for TPAO to earn back their $6 billion at that rate.

View attachment 363359

But that's not all, if I recall correctly we still get 10% during these few years, which is approx. 150M$ a year for max. 5 years.

150M$ is a huge number for Somalia. Correct me if I'm wrong but the FGS in all its history has never put that much money on the table for any projects. To put it into perspective, 100M$ could build around 5 modern and fully equipped hospitals throughout the country. With a 100M$ they could also build about 475 primary schools fully equipped with textbooks for all students. These are the two sectors holding our HDI back and that seriously need attention.

I'm not very sure about this, but I also think there are laws to share oil revenues between the several federal states. So if the Federal Gov keeps 50M, that still leaves 15M$ for each state (Jubaland, Hirshabelle, Galmudug, Puntland)


Also I don't know if it's a coincidence, but the dates when they start building the new Mogadishu airport and economic zone could match the first barrel drilled ?

Considering everything Turkey has built for Somalia, this isn't a bad deal. I'll admit the part where they say that Somalis can't oversee the operation is a bit sketchy but the Somalis mad at the contract because any disagreement would be disputed at a UN court in Turkey is just dumb, Turkey also had to go to the US when they had a disagreement about the F35s. The fact that they wont hire any Somalis also makes sense, good luck finding a significant Somali workforce trained for this. We also have to consider the fact that we are currently seen as a poor and highly unstable state nobody wants to risk investing in.

With all this into account, the contract would obviously not be fully in our favor.

If this deal goes well it will attract even bigger foreign investments to tap into oil, gas and other natural resources. Pretty sure Shell and two other american companies are watching from the sidelines and waiting for their turn. I saw somewhere that the Americans reserved 7 offshore blocks.

I know some of you will call me biased but I'm looking at this from a neutral perspective, I'm not even very fond of the FGS nor Turkey. To summarize, I see more pros than cons in the recent Turkish oil deal.

Am I the only one to see it like this ? What do you guys think ?
:farmajoyaab:
 
I haven't anything major from Turkey regarding the deal so far so its all from FGS perspective. Barkhadle already gave his take on this before.
I was wrong on some of the calculation but 5 years is accurate imo

If we assume its mid-sized rigs (50-60,000 barrels a day) and the current prices are 60$ per barrel then TPAO would make 1.1bn $ a year per rig, but it depends tbh anything can happen, in 2022 due to the ukraine war prices were between 80-110$ per barrel thats nearly double, Saudi arabia was making huge bank, this is why I say some kind of big war like that would benefit Somalia if it started producing oil

Algeria was making 20 billion from oil in 2021, they made 60 billion in 2022, Saudi was making 215 billion in 2021 and they made 330 billion in 2022, you never know what might happen

If capital expenditure is at 2 billion on TPAO's side, it would take around 5-6 years to make recovery at current prices
 
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