Lets Talk Economic. Discussion

[DR OSMAN]

I have always been un-decided about the cycle of the economy, which may effect what policy to support.

I know you need a strong demand driven market such as customers and I know customers need jobs, I know a middle class is needed or why else produce goods/services and trade in the market if the customers are poor or non existent. I know the customers need to be large not minimal(1%) or else consumption will be low and therefore market growth low.

What baffles me is when a market is non-existent or emerging like the 3rd world, why would a company create jobs if that local market has low consumers to begin with? and the catch 22 is those emerging markets can't develop without investment to create jobs. Will those markets need to tap into foreign markets and suck on that and is that wise to be dependent on foreign markets who can dictate your dependent?

Please answer me that dilemma im suffering in economic understanding as all I see is catch 22 there is no consumers in poor markets and the market can't grow without creating jobs, who u going to create the job for when the consumers are non-existent? How did other markets in the world overcome this dilemma without relying on foreign markets?

Please don't say 'oil' production either becuz that has to be tied to foreign stock market as national fund and supporting foreign businesses while your locals remain idle locally.

 

[DR OSMAN]

In Somali lingo. Suuq faqri ah oo jeebkooda maran yahay waxa la dhaha wuxu uu bahan yahay shaqo lakinse shaqada hadi aad uu samaysid yaa suuq ku noqonayo, waba faqri? it's a catch 22 problem or riddle, can any economists or enthusiast answer this dilemma without saying oil or export to rich markets. I know u can export to foreign markets and then spend locally to market develop, but that also means your foreign dependent not locally dependent.

Or do u need to start out foreign dependent on markets and slowly build local markets indirectly thru foreign dollars and pray ur local market develops stronger over time and supercedes your foreign dependence?

 

[DR OSMAN]

Maybe as Somalis we can go to rural cities in the west and the see the most successful who is slowly growing or has shown tremendous growth and see what the right policy is, since our urban areas are suffering similar challenges to what a rural area in the west face. As noone solving the riddle here to create a somali solution, so we need to look outwards as usual.

Puntland must lead the way, the south will catch up in 20 years as is the rule.

 

[Reformed J]

Your silo case study framework won't produce any useful solutions when you ignore the reality of a globalized world where the economic conditions of every country are intertwined. Somalia's economy will always be in a net deficit. It has little to no natural resources to prop up industry along with a exponentially growing population. It survives alone with on foreign remittances.

With east/southeast Asia getting richer my hope is we can siphon the manufacturing of goods. With a strategic placement in b/w Europe and Asia Pacific, and close to the raw resources coming from DRC it'd make logistical sense. We just need to invest in education, security and tax breaks for corporations.

 

[DR OSMAN]

Your silo case study framework won't produce any useful solutions when you ignore the reality of a globalized world where the economic conditions of every country are intertwined. Somalia's economy will always be in a net deficit. It has little to no natural resources to prop up industry along with a exponentially growing population. It survives alone with on foreign remittances.

With east/southeast Asia getting richer my hope is we can siphon the manufacturing of goods. With a strategic placement in b/w Europe and Asia Pacific, and close to the raw resources coming from DRC it'd make logistical sense. We just need to invest in education, security and tax breaks for corporations.

So your proposing that we tie ourselves to foreign markets or rely on natural resources? natural resource problem is you only get a small share of the global pie as your not the only player, in-fact most natural resources are carefully controlled by companies or consortiums like opec to ensure no global shock to players in prices reducing by controlling producers and output, plus u need to find a country to supply.

As for targetting foreign markets also means dependence and can be cut out and other partners replace you at a whim if a conflict arises like happened to siyad and russia it can also happen in all trade, why join a global market where u have to fight for scraps and don't focus in-wards.

I dont know of an in-ward policy and why I asked for people to solve the economic riddle rather then dismiss it cause it cant be solved as the strongest economic posture in any country should be inside their country not outside. As for education we know ppl need education but that doesn't mean they become consumers, they will still be broke and their market has no customer to create jobs for.

 

[DR OSMAN]

@Reformed J we have somali diaspora worldwide, surely we can create a yearly summit and bring them all together to provide intel to somalis and the govt about their homeland and economic models, especially 'rural' areas if it's a developed country since that relates more to our urban situation or urban areas if it's developing market.

 

[Reformed J]

So your proposing that we tie ourselves to foreign markets or rely on natural resources? natural resource problem is you only get a small share of the global pie as your not the only player, in-fact most natural resources are carefully controlled by companies or consortiums like opec to ensure no global shock to players in prices reducing by controlling producers and output, plus u need to find a country to supply.

As for targetting foreign markets also means dependence and can be cut out and other partners replace you at a whim if a conflict arises like happened to siyad and russia it can also happen in all trade, why join a global market where u have to fight for scraps and don't focus in-wards.

I dont know of an in-ward policy and why I asked for people to solve the economic riddle rather then dismiss it cause it cant be solved as the strongest economic posture in any country should be inside their country not outside. As for education we know ppl need education but that doesn't mean they become consumers, they will still be broke and their market has no customer to create jobs for.

You're already dependent on foreign countries handouts and you're participating in the global trade by important things but nobody wants to buy your stuff. Dependency on foreign demand as a net exporter >>> current situation of dependency on foreign supply, currency depreciation, inflation, outflow of money, loss of internal industry as a net importer. Is there any country that isn't tied to foreign markets? Maybe 1950s holdover North Korea and that's it. Barren countries like Saudi Arabia and Mongolia are highly dependent (>80%) on the global demand of fossil fuels. God has forsaken us in that department. Our only hope is tourism (ehh) or becoming the global sweatshop.

 

[DR OSMAN]

You're already dependent on foreign countries handouts and you're participating in the global trade by important things but nobody wants to buy your stuff. Dependency on foreign demand as a net exporter >>> current situation of dependency on foreign supply, currency depreciation, inflation, outflow of money, loss of internal industry as a net importer. Is there any country that isn't tied to foreign markets? Maybe 1950s holdover North Korea and that's it. Barren countries like Saudi Arabia and Mongolia are highly dependent (>80%) on the global demand of fossil fuels. God has forsaken us in that department. Our only hope is tourism (ehh) or becoming the global sweatshop.

This idea u promote as a net exporter means u send out goods or services more than u depend on global market for your economic activity, that means u have much more to lose if those partners replace you like russia did to siyad and led to his crumble.

They will study your GDP share and laugh and say 90% of your GDP is foreign markets and they can replace you and if your local market is undeveloped or is smaller share to GDP, your govt and market both crumble. I wouldn't promote a policy on net exports, the more u export and the higher it is in your GDP share only gives the trading partners the upper hand.

Somalia needs strong internal market if it wants to be independent and not subject to trade threats and not all trade partners are equal, if ur market needs the world more thru exports then they need you, you have the short end of the stick and they can replace u with new trade partner.

 

[Hilmaam]

This idea u promote as a net exporter means u send out goods or services more than u depend on global market for your economic activity, that means u have much more to lose if those partners replace you like russia did to siyad and led to his crumble.

They will study your GDP share and laugh and say 90% of your GDP is foreign markets and they can replace you and if your local market is undeveloped or is smaller share to GDP, your govt and market both crumble. I wouldn't promote a policy on net exports, the more u export and the higher it is in your GDP share only gives the foreign the upper hand.

it’s good to be independent I agree why we need to invest heavily in farming , fresh water. Feeding ourselves to me is first step to building civilization.
We can’t do basics right like have a fed population, currency and normal tax code. Business can only be done by certain clans and everyone else is being robbed every few miles by clans , FMS, and terrorist. Somali is barely a country it’s in life support kept alive by aid and money us from diaspora send

 

[Hilmaam]

impossible to be country with people like this in power. Somalis always brag about being Muslim and shariah nation but are most corrupt thieves on planet every year when it comes to ranking they should be ashamed to say they are Muslim

 

[Hilmaam]

The one thing we are good at is livestock and even that is miserable with year after year of drought and when we do have rain its floods and causes outbreak of diseases. Cherry on top is when Mideast puts in place export bans on livestock every other decade . People born and building civilizations in somalia fighting against nature. Somalis to me average IQ people but land we live on is a crazy place, the ethiopian highland should have been must have territory for our future

 

[Reformed J]

This idea u promote as a net exporter means u send out goods or services more than u depend on global market for your economic activity, that means u have much more to lose if those partners replace you like russia did to siyad and led to his crumble.

They will study your GDP share and laugh and say 90% of your GDP is foreign markets and they can replace you and if your local market is undeveloped or is smaller share to GDP, your govt and market both crumble. I wouldn't promote a policy on net exports, the more u export and the higher it is in your GDP share only gives the trading partners the upper hand.

Somalia needs strong internal market if it wants to be independent and not subject to trade threats and not all trade partners are equal, if ur market needs the world more thru exports then they need you, you have the short end of the stick and they can replace u with new trade partner.

Somalia was still a charity case receiving sadaqah even during Kacaan. The partnership was simply donator and miskeen beneficiary. Instead of the west it was the Soviets/Eastern bloc-free infrastructure, weapons and food; North Koreans-free infrastructure; Arab league-Iraq free oil. We weren't giving anything to the Soviets besides pushing their idealized world of commies vision, then Afweyne acted out and they decided to cutoff their disobedient leeching kid.

Ironically imports of goods and services was 90.9% of Somalia's GDP as of 2022.

World Bank Open Data

Free and open access to global development data

data.worldbank.org

I didn't say to abandon your domestic economy, just the primacy should be elsewhere, that's the reality of a barren land with nothing to offer. Take the money any where you want once you get it into the country. The current domestic economy is basically using donations from relatives living in the west to pay for services and imported goods at exuberant prices. Investments into better roads, ports, energy will bring prices down a bit but the bulk of the work will have to be done by foreign investment.

 

[DR OSMAN]

Somalia was still a charity case receiving sadaqah even during Kacaan. The partnership was simply donator and miskeen beneficiary. Instead of the west it was the Soviets/Eastern bloc-free infrastructure, weapons and food; North Koreans-free infrastructure; Arab league-Iraq free oil. We weren't giving anything to the Soviets besides pushing their idealized world of commies vision, then Afweyne acted out and they decided to cutoff their disobedient leeching kid.

Ironically imports of goods and services was 90.9% of Somalia's GDP as of 2022.

World Bank Open Data

Free and open access to global development data

data.worldbank.org

I didn't say to abandon your domestic economy, just the primacy should be elsewhere, that's the reality of a barren land with nothing to offer. Take the money any where you want once you get it into the country. The current domestic economy is basically using donations from relatives living in the west to pay for services and imported goods at exuberant prices. Investments into better roads, ports, energy will bring prices down a bit but the bulk of the work will have to be done by foreign investment.

I think u missed the point foreign or domestic investors will argue their is no local market to service becuz their all broke and the govt says the market cant develop without jobs. Even if u build all infrastructure, address health, and education, the ppl wallet is still broke and the wallet if it dont exist then govt cant convince domestic or foreign investors to invest to create jobs becuz as their no local market to service.

 

[Reformed J]

I think u missed the point foreign or domestic investors will argue their is no local market to service even if u build all infrastructure, address health, and education.

Goods would be sent overseas initially, Somalis would be paid for labour.

Anyways AI automated manufacturing will make this all obsolete, its so over.

 

[DR OSMAN]

Goods would be sent overseas initially, Somalis would be paid for labour.

Anyways AI automated manufacturing will make this all obsolete, its so over.

So the economic riddle isn't answered on how to create a strong local market, just export to foreign developed market and leech like siyad leeched on USSR weaponry. Gee this nation never changes with its outward outlook, all their hope is what others have. I cant stand among my peer with pride wallahi when the whole nation is looking outside from tahrib to economic trade or investment or charity or aid. Its a TRUSTEESHIP and the ppl are like apes in a zoo

 

[DR OSMAN]

@Reformed J heard local rumours about that somali runner in china. Apparently she only went to the race as a way to tahrib but didn't know asian countries don't have UNHCR offices for refugees. Its sad but she wanted to tahrib

 

[DR OSMAN]

@Reformed J even our govt leaders have homes overseas or passports. Even Farmajo is chilling out in Qatar, ina salad in egypt, sharif in uganda. The whole population wants to tahrib or look at what others have, even shababi were caught sneaking into america thru latin america. The gaalo they were preaching against.

 

[GemState]

You're already dependent on foreign countries handouts and you're participating in the global trade by important things but nobody wants to buy your stuff. Dependency on foreign demand as a net exporter >>> current situation of dependency on foreign supply, currency depreciation, inflation, outflow of money, loss of internal industry as a net importer. Is there any country that isn't tied to foreign markets? Maybe 1950s holdover North Korea and that's it. Barren countries like Saudi Arabia and Mongolia are highly dependent (>80%) on the global demand of fossil fuels. God has forsaken us in that department. Our only hope is tourism (ehh) or becoming the global sweatshop.

Somalia should pool enough resources and infrastructure to power an economy for 1-200k of our brightest from around the world. Would quickly outpace any city in the Horn in 4-5 years in HDI.

Should be picking winners and losers tbh, it's a myth that the masses can be uplifted, but you can create some kind of bourgeoisie that can act as a vanguard for further development.

But clan probably makes coordinating on this impossible

 

[DR OSMAN]

Somalia should pool enough resources and infrastructure to power an economy for 1-200k of our brightest from around the world. Would quickly outpace any city in the Horn in 4-5 years in HDI.

Should be picking winners and losers tbh, it's a myth that the masses can be uplifted, but you can create some kind of bourgeoisie that can act as a vanguard for further development.

But clan probably makes coordinating on this impossible

Do you see catch 22 economic riddle? I think I solved the riddle with logic. If u set up the physical(roads, water, sanitation, sewage, drainage, roads, energy, airports, ports) and social infrastructure(health, schools) they will be 'attractive' and our markets ready to be tapped into by investors becuz everything they require is available.

To set up physical-social infrastructure needs an effective state and a effective state needs a cultural revolution or the leaders will decay-rot any system developed. But the riddle still determines u need to leech on foreign markets first and hope internal market develops and over-takes foreign market dependence. The local market is stuck in a riddle they have no wallets but to create wallets they need jobs and for jobs to be created their market needs wallets.

Anytime u hear somalis in public talking about good governance/institutions always stand up and say u need a cultural revolution or our leaders will rot-decay any and all state building attempts.

 

[DR OSMAN]

impossible to be country with people like this in power. Somalis always brag about being Muslim and shariah nation but are most corrupt thieves on planet every year when it comes to ranking they should be ashamed to say they are Muslim

View attachment 287389

Most muslims are socially muslim or public side muslim, they don't show any real measurable evidence in this world of how islam benefited them or the world, their only muslim in name only around other people. As u noted they fill prisons, corrupt, fleeing islamic countries, wars, corruption, how is that a real muslim? their only muslim in name only. They have all the symptoms of the devil and satan but say YOU are satan.

They tend to have anger-depression-anxiety-competing with others anything but being private about their faith and being with god and only showing the public their 'good example' in life not trying to prove their islam or compete with ppl loooooool. Its sad cuz when their die all their life was spent focusing on other humans and society and being muslim in name only. When u die its going to be private affair between them n god, so their public facing islam wont save them.