Everyone is getting their knickers in a knot over the recent MoU between the SNM “government” based in Hargeisa and Abiy Ahmed. But can the Ethiopian army complete a full takeover of the northern provinces if there is a possible armed conflict between Somalia and Ethiopia?
Many people cite the recent Tigray conflict for the supposed prowess of the Ethiopian army, but let us not forget that there were numerous factors involved then and will definitely not be the same with an invasion of our beautiful homeland by the mountain dwellers west of us.
First of, Abiy Ahmed is banking on the fact that he can steamroll past the federal government in securing his illegal land grab and establishing control, we know see that this won’t happen with the recent condemnation, rumored purchase of arms, request for Turkish and Egyptian naval presence in the disputed area and to ramp Somali naval training aswell as his plea to the youth to defend their country it seems neither side will back down.
Second, during the Tigray war the TPLF were fighting a two front war, although heavily armed there was no way they would win against both Eritrea and Ethiopia, the fact of the matter is we will be facing a limited Ethiopian military in numbers as them moving massive columns of personnel and equipment to the border would presumably lead to a build up of weapons on our side, hopefully in the eyes of Somali nationalists such as myself both, civilian, clan, and government.
The essential question: Is the Ethiopian hardware and personnel capable of taking on Somalia without assistance or are they too weak.
Let’s not forget that Somalia has two forms of armed groups, those that belong to the regional, federal and local police/?paramilitary and the vast expanse of clan and local militias. Then of course you have shabab, while virtually all of the said groups are based in the south and north east as well as SSC. This brings us to our first dilemma, how would all of these fighters and hardware get to the battlefield most likely in Awdal or other parts of SL? Would SL actively put up a fight against us or through another route DDS. For this I ask @SPMLegend and @Thegoodshepherd, another dilemma would be, will regional forces be involved in the capacity local and federal forces would be and would the country unite and put aside internal rivalry’s and other trivialities to work together.
What would be the reality of the conflict and what would be its effects on the civilian population and on our country both in the present and future.
Many people cite the recent Tigray conflict for the supposed prowess of the Ethiopian army, but let us not forget that there were numerous factors involved then and will definitely not be the same with an invasion of our beautiful homeland by the mountain dwellers west of us.
First of, Abiy Ahmed is banking on the fact that he can steamroll past the federal government in securing his illegal land grab and establishing control, we know see that this won’t happen with the recent condemnation, rumored purchase of arms, request for Turkish and Egyptian naval presence in the disputed area and to ramp Somali naval training aswell as his plea to the youth to defend their country it seems neither side will back down.
Second, during the Tigray war the TPLF were fighting a two front war, although heavily armed there was no way they would win against both Eritrea and Ethiopia, the fact of the matter is we will be facing a limited Ethiopian military in numbers as them moving massive columns of personnel and equipment to the border would presumably lead to a build up of weapons on our side, hopefully in the eyes of Somali nationalists such as myself both, civilian, clan, and government.
The essential question: Is the Ethiopian hardware and personnel capable of taking on Somalia without assistance or are they too weak.
Let’s not forget that Somalia has two forms of armed groups, those that belong to the regional, federal and local police/?paramilitary and the vast expanse of clan and local militias. Then of course you have shabab, while virtually all of the said groups are based in the south and north east as well as SSC. This brings us to our first dilemma, how would all of these fighters and hardware get to the battlefield most likely in Awdal or other parts of SL? Would SL actively put up a fight against us or through another route DDS. For this I ask @SPMLegend and @Thegoodshepherd, another dilemma would be, will regional forces be involved in the capacity local and federal forces would be and would the country unite and put aside internal rivalry’s and other trivialities to work together.
What would be the reality of the conflict and what would be its effects on the civilian population and on our country both in the present and future.
