Is the Ethiopian military competent enough for an invasion. The Somali military competent enough to handle them.

[Bazed]

Would Ethiopian forces even distinguish between somalis with or against them. Cause it'll only take one battalion to commit a crime to cause a uproar among those that would support them.

I don't know.

What I do know is this is a fucking mess and if it escalates more we'll be sent back to 1991. We were just getting back on our feet, it's a real shame honestly.

 

[Yazi]

There will be no war. Ethiopia occupied Mogadishu for 2 years. ICU back than was stronger than all current FMS + SNA. Let's be real no Somali dares to stand up to Ethiopian army.

 

[hayran]

>Is the Ethiopian military competent enough for an invasion.
no

>The Somali military competent enough to handle them.
no

the only ethiopians that have martial tradition are tigray and eritreans. oromo would still be oppressed miskeens if tigray didnt cede political power to them.

we would get clapped initially but they won't be able to hold the occupation. they have much more to lose than we do and too much shit on their own plate

 

[Riftvalley]

There will be no war. Ethiopia occupied Mogadishu for 2 years. ICU back than was stronger than all current FMS + SNA. Let's be real no Somali dares to stand up to Ethiopian army.

The Ethiopians still had to leave due to guerilla warfare by ICU and Somali clans. The same will happen this time, but the war might spill into the Somali region this time around. The Issa will most likely take up arms. There will be mass rioting and violence in the Oromo/Somali regions. Ethiopians killing Somalis in Awdal in the age of social media is going to be a disaster for them given the impact of the Gaza war on the global Muslim psyche. Somalis around the world will pour millions to fund the war. Sheikhs will declare a Jihad from across the world.

I think the USA an others will encourage Abiy to not go ahead with his crazy plan. Remember this a country fighting an insurgency against the Amhara, and with severe economic problems.Egyptians and Djibouti will be reinforcing this message.

Ethiopia can invade Somali regions but She has no way of holding territory in the long term.

 

[hayran]

Ethiopians killing Somalis in Awdal in the age of social media is going to be a disaster for them given the impact of the Gaza war on the global Muslim psyche. Somalis around the world will pour millions to fund the war. Sheikhs will declare a Jihad from across the world.

that wont happen. no one cares about somalis that much bro. the last thing we should expect is global sympathy

ethiopia good somalia bad and such

 

[Aseer]

The Ethiopians still had to leave due to guerilla warfare by ICU and Somali clans. The same will happen this time, but the war might spill into the Somali region this time around. The Issa will most likely take up arms. There will be mass rioting and violence in the Oromo/Somali regions. Ethiopians killing Somalis in Awdal in the age of social media is going to be a disaster for them given the impact of the Gaza war on the global Muslim psyche. Somalis around the world will pour millions to fund the war. Sheikhs will declare a Jihad from across the world.

I think the USA an others will encourage Abiy to not go ahead with his crazy plan. Remember this a country fighting an insurgency against the Amhara, and with severe economic problems.Egyptians and Djibouti will be reinforcing this message.

Ethiopia can invade Somali regions but She has no way of holding territory in the long term.

We wont be getting international support, We will always be the "bad guys" we might as well accept it, as long as they get funding from all diaspora somalis we would do fine.

 

[Pastoralist]

Let's be real no Somali dares to stand up to Ethiopian army.

you sound like you watch your own wife get fucked and watch.

 

[Yazi]

The Ethiopians still had to leave due to guerilla warfare by ICU and Somali clans. The same will happen this time, but the war might spill into the Somali region this time around. The Issa will most likely take up arms. There will be mass rioting and violence in the Oromo/Somali regions. Ethiopians killing Somalis in Awdal in the age of social media is going to be a disaster for them given the impact of the Gaza war on the global Muslim psyche. Somalis around the world will pour millions to fund the war. Sheikhs will declare a Jihad from across the world.

I think the USA an others will encourage Abiy to not go ahead with his crazy plan. Remember this a country fighting an insurgency against the Amhara, and with severe economic problems.Egyptians and Djibouti will be reinforcing this message.

Ethiopia can invade Somali regions but She has no way of holding territory in the long term.

Highly unlikely. It wasn't ICU who drove Ethiopia out of Mogadishu but AS. Their tekniko were simply no match for Ethiopian tanks and rocket launchers. Highly doubt Reer Awdal would put up the same kind of fierce resistance showed by ICU - Al Shabaab during Ethiopian invasion. Besides their vast majority lives in DDSI of which Ethiopia controls. They can't maintain a war of attrition or guerrilla warfare without support, they're surrounded by enemies. This is the worst case scenario and still Ethiopia would come on top.

Most likely scenario is moving the new naval base to another location, most likely Buulxaar, Saaxil region.

 

[Riftvalley]

that wont happen. no one cares about somalis that much bro. the last thing we should expect is global sympathy

ethiopia good somalia bad and such

You’re missing the point and making this about “care”. I never mentioned the word sympathy. I never said anything about the West caring about Somalis. What I am saying that, in the eyes of the West, the last thing they want is a stable region being destabilised and a new wave of refugees. You just have to look at how all the press statements are urging caution.

Djibouti doesn’t care about Somalis;however, a war could have devastating consequences for their trade and security because it will happen on their border. Simple point to understand, no?

 

[Yusuf Abdi Ali Rashid]

Awdal is mountainous genius

barely

 

[Riftvalley]

Highly unlikely. It wasn't ICU who drove Ethiopia out of Mogadishu but AS. Their tekniko were simply no match for Ethiopian tanks and rocket launchers. Highly doubt Reer Awdal would put up the same kind of fierce resistance showed by ICU - Al Shabaab during Ethiopian invasion. Besides their vast majority lives in DDSI of which Ethiopia controls. They can't maintain a war of attrition or guerrilla warfare without support, they're surrounded by enemies. This is the worst case scenario and still Ethiopia would come on top.

Most likely scenario is moving the new naval base to another location, most likely Buulxaar, Saaxil region.

Hawiye clans resisted Ethiopia heavily it wasn’t just AS. AS grew strong Because they were the most organised out of the opposition.

yes,I agree with you- if they move it close to Habar Awal region-it might play out differently.

 

[Abdisamad]

All the niggaz saying Ethiopia would steamroll us are fat lazy Faraxs eating buscut and drinking milk on their mom's couch..

 

[Yazi]

Hawiye clans resisted Ethiopia heavily it wasn’t just AS. AS grew strong Because they were the most organised out of the opposition.

yes,I agree with you- if they move it close to Habar Awal region-it might play out differently.

I know. Back then Xizbul Shabaab was led by Aden Xaashi Ceyrow, a Habar Gidir. All Hawiye under ICU fought back especially the Abgaal & Murusade. But still Sheikh Sharif who lead the ICU lost the battle of Mogadishu and most of his allies fled Mogadishu and joined AS. A smaller joined the TFG government

 

[GemState]

You guys are completely off. If Ethiopia decided to wage a war of expansion, wallah within 2 years Somalis would be in Arat Kilo.

In 2006 forget Somalis, there was plenty of Hawiye siding with the Ethiopia+TFG. A war of annexation is far, far more permenant/blatant, every Somali would be arming themselves and would be fought in Galbeed first before the ENDF even crossed into Somalia. Foriegn countires would have their weapons flooding into our ports too.

You guys are underestimating Somalis hugely. Ethiopia has a lot more reason to fear us than vice versa. Somalia is a porcupine of a nation, similar to Afghanistan.

 

[Yazi]

You guys are completely off. If Ethiopia decided to wage a war of expansion, wallah within 2 years Somalis would be in Arat Kilo.

In 2006 forget Somalis, there was plenty of Hawiye siding with the Ethiopia+TFG. A war of annexation is far, far more permenant/blatant, every Somali would be arming themselves and would be fought in Galbeed first before the ENDF even crossed into Somalia. Foriegn countires would have their weapons flooding into our ports too.

You guys are underestimating Somalis hugely. Ethiopia has a lot more reason to fear us than vice versa. Somalia is a porcupine of a nation, similar to Afghanistan.

Yeah some Hawiye particularly the HG from Mudug, the MJ with AY and some Rahanweyn supported the TFG who green light the Ethiopian invasion and constituted the backbone of TFG in Baidoa. In Somaliland you forget the most important player, the Isaaq, will also fight off an invasion from the south. Doesn't matter if it's SNA or FMS militia, any Somali who feels entitled to use force against Somaliland will unite the Isaaq against the south. Of course Ethiopia will not stand by and offer all kind of support to Somaliland.

 

[Zak12]

In today's age annexations simply cannot happen without widespread condemnation and sanctions. The reason Russia could get away with it is because they are a major power in the global stage and can take the brunt of embargos, same with other sanctioned countries like Iran and North Korea. Ethiopia on the other hand? They are extremely poor and reliant on aids that they cannot handle major sanctions and getting their support cut off from the west. Not even Abiy is stupid enough to do such as thing.

 

[johnsepei5]

Ethiopia is trying to take advantage of the current weak state of Somalia,they know Somalia is heading in the right direction (debt relief,Arms embargo lifted)
They might never get this opportunity again

 

[Jiron]

war is long, war is expensive, war is destructive for people and environment. I hope there's no war. ethiopia will not achieve its long term and somalia would bear the brunt. it will set the region back and erase all progress. peace is the solution.

 

[Burqad]

Yeah some Hawiye particularly the HG from Mudug, the MJ with AY and some Rahanweyn supported the TFG who green light the Ethiopian invasion and constituted the backbone of TFG in Baidoa. In Somaliland you forget the most important player, the Isaaq, will also fight off an invasion from the south. Doesn't matter if it's SNA or FMS militia, any Somali who feels entitled to use force against Somaliland will unite the Isaaq against the south. Of course Ethiopia will not stand by and offer all kind of support to Somaliland.

Read Wikileaks, Ethiopia invaded unilaterally because America told them to, they weren’t “invited”.

 

[Buddeh]

Now hold on. The Ethiopian invasion was lead by the US. it was American AirPower + intelligence that was guiding them to start the al-shabab insurgency and thrust Somalia into the war on terror. Remember they wished to eliminate 7 Muslim nations in the Unipolar world: Syria, Somalia, Yemen, Iraq, Lybia, Sudan and Iran.

Ethiopia doesn’t make drones nor is it capable of replenishing its munitions. They can’t fight a long term insurgency without American support but then again not a whole lot of nations can, and depending on the intensity of the insurgency, not even America.