Is it really difficult building a state?

[Kun_Ciil]

The only way forward is to move to 1 man 1 vote.

Why would you for example split PL into 3? You would have 3 governments in their wake, surely that isn't efficient.

I think the FGS should be dismantled and recreated. They have showed a lack commitment to fighting alshabab and transitioning to 1man1vote. It looks like they committed to maintaing the status quo, unlike the federal states.

I said split into 2 - Bari and Nugaal. But that is not a big dilemma for Majerteen since they would still yield power in the North east. However, for Jubbaland and Axmed Madobe the ideas of being an autonomous state would be shattered if it’s split into Jubba dhexe, hoose and Gedo.

Something like below will make it more easier for the central gov to exercise control, and weaken regional actors. Each area has a governor who directly comes under the president and has loyalty to the state above everything else. Seems idealistic and foolish looking at our current mindset, but if other countries have learnt to join together for greater benefit then inshallah one day we will realise the Somali people need a state that is for and protects all Somalis worldly and Islamic affairs.

 

[Kun_Ciil]

1m1v is a fantasy. Also most people will vote along Qalbil lines.

I don’t think so. Maybe in the beginning but reality will set in. You even see it in the tent elections in afisiyooni. Different leaders trying to get the votes of different tribes and making alliances. Hawiye leaders try to get the Isaaq and Digil Mirifle MPs on their side. Darood candidates trying to get Hawiye, Digil Mirifle votes.

How do you think Farmaajo came into power? He got a lot of Hawiye, Digil Mirifle votes alongside Darood.

In Somali politics alliances are formed in order to gain power. Eventually there will have to be qabiil mixed parties who get people’s votes based on manifestos and national vision.

 

[Midas]

The reason state building in Somalia was a struggle is simple. If you look at the history of modern states it's a process of the power of the state expanding and dominating the lives of it its citizens. The state is fundamentally a coercive power

The problem with doing this to a nomadic pouplation is that they can move and leave the territory of the state. If you look at nomadic regions like central asia it took massive empires like Russia investing huge amount of time and energy to subjugate the pouplations.

Who's gonna do that with somalia ? The time resources and money required is simply too large and somalia had nothing of value that would make the very few colonial empires like the British or French who had the ability to do this undertake such a massive project

 

[The Oponian Guild]

Nomads are irrelevant to history zxp

Massive cope or bait

 

[Ultra Opinionated]

I don’t think so. Maybe in the beginning but reality will set in. You even see it in the tent elections in afisiyooni. Different leaders trying to get the votes of different tribes and making alliances. Hawiye leaders try to get the Isaaq and Digil Mirifle MPs on their side. Darood candidates trying to get Hawiye, Digil Mirifle votes.

How do you think Farmaajo came into power? He got a lot of Hawiye, Digil Mirifle votes alongside Darood.

In Somali politics alliances are formed in order to gain power. Eventually there will have to be qabiil mixed parties who get people’s votes based on manifestos and national vision.

I mean no one in the south is going to be able to marginalize Hawiye. That's just not possible.

Farmaajo(or any politician) isn't a good example because the electoral system is built precisely on qabilism. Politicians get confirmations of support from tribal chiefs, which is inherently tribal, even if these clans do not support their own candidate.

Somalis are currently killing each other over qabil to this day. Hard to believe they will be able to do that, at least outside of Xamar and certain cities.

 

[Jaffar]

it’s hard and I tell you why
First there needs to be reconcalition
I read sicid gees book about proper reconcaltion why is Somaliland a State and fucntioning because the guurti put allot of effort to solving all matters
There were isaaq reconciliatiion between their subclans then there were separate reconcaltion between gadabuursi and ciise . In 1992. Then there were seperate peace efforts between isaaq bari and harti woqoyi in ceerigaabo . This created a good atmosphere and some trust if you want proper reconciliation u neeed to follow the Somaliland model.

your question about why isn’t the Somali republic a state well reconcaltion between clans is needed

the second question is we need to adres the Somaliland issue . Ignoring their case Wont solve anything we have seen the damage they can do what would have we done if the mou was going ahead . Ethiopia would be on our shores for half a century . We need to adres the core issue with Somaliland. Secesion or re union and if we are going to have a country that includes them then the south needs to make some serious concession if this doesn’t happen I predict status quo armed conflict which will create more hatred between Somalia and Somaliland in the forseable future


then there is the puntland issue and federalism puntland feels betrayed they have put so much into peace building never given up on a united Somalia they created garowe 1 garowe 2 the federalism structure but the Mogadishu elites only pay lipservice to federalism non of the Turkish economic development project reach puntland aid money isn’t send back to Mogadishu if this path continues then puntland will disenage from somalia puntland first people in puntland are minority allot of puntland people specially the young people wil feel puntland can go it alone . If they see if Somaliland succeeds on their own. They Will follow this path Somaliland unrecognised got the dp world deal . Puntland feels it also can gain investments and the constitution change was the last slap on puntland . What do you expect

The 3rd issue is alshabaab shabaab can’t be defeated 17 years of war will show u this talks with shabaab need tonhappen maybe in Qatar a peace deal needs to be reached amisom can’t defeat shabaab we know so why not talk to alshabab a joint govt can be build

4th is good governance nationalism and rebuilding institutions this needs leadership the problem every president of the sfg is basically happy to be the mayor of Mogadishu as long as he Gets money funding and red carpets

 

[NawafAS11]

I notice everytime the failiure of Somalia becomes too obvious they think about Somaliland to relieve the pressure.

Somaliland reestablished sovereignty in 1991 and immediately built a government where it stood before.

Mogadishu has new owners that don't want one. It's not that complicated.
Somali state collapsed when Mogadishu got new rulers and that's not somethign you can fix without changing the rulers of Mogadishu until then enjoy failed state.

It's important to point out once state collapses you can't fix it. There's no way to fix it. Regime change is possible but fixing collapsed state has never been done.

Exactly. Everyone can quite clearly see what the problem is and where it comes from.

it’s so disheartening that we aren’t even allowed to speak on these things for fear of being called divisive :/

 

[The Oponian Guild]

I said split into 2 - Bari and Nugaal. But that is not a big dilemma for Majerteen since they would still yield power in the North east. However, for Jubbaland and Axmed Madobe the ideas of being an autonomous state would be shattered if it’s split into Jubba dhexe, hoose and Gedo.

Something like below will make it more easier for the central gov to exercise control, and weaken regional actors. Each area has a governor who directly comes under the president and has loyalty to the state above everything else. Seems idealistic and foolish looking at our current mindset, but if other countries have learnt to join together for greater benefit then inshallah one day we will realise the Somali people need a state that is for and protects all Somalis worldly and Islamic affairs.

View attachment 374102

Puntland is in union with Somalia it’s not some mamuul goboleed under the thumb of xamar. Even in this hypothetical pan Somali polity puntland will remain whole. It will have its own president, parliament, constitution, army, ministries. Anything else well good luck trying that.

 

[Magaffe]

I said split into 2 - Bari and Nugaal. But that is not a big dilemma for Majerteen since they would still yield power in the North east. However, for Jubbaland and Axmed Madobe the ideas of being an autonomous state would be shattered if it’s split into Jubba dhexe, hoose and Gedo.

Something like below will make it more easier for the central gov to exercise control, and weaken regional actors. Each area has a governor who directly comes under the president and has loyalty to the state above everything else. Seems idealistic and foolish looking at our current mindset, but if other countries have learnt to join together for greater benefit then inshallah one day we will realise the Somali people need a state that is for and protects all Somalis worldly and Islamic affairs.

View attachment 374102

Why do you want the government to be able to control Puntland?

The federal government should focus and work on things that are in their remit (i.e. monetary policy, immigration, foreign affairs etc.).

 

[Kun_Ciil]

Puntland is in union with Somalia it’s not some mamuul goboleed under the thumb of xamar. Even in this hypothetical pan Somali polity puntland will remain whole. It will have its own president, parliament, constitution, army, ministries. Anything else well good luck trying that.

Warkaada wuu cadyahay aan kala yaacno waayey kkk. It’s impossible to have what you said and have a central gov at the same time. You’re basically your own separate government who doesn’t want to be under another governments thumb.

It’s either become fully independent or come under central gov. Nothing in between

Why do you want the government to be able to control Puntland?

The federal government should focus and work on things that are in their remit (i.e. monetary policy, immigration, foreign affairs etc.).

Isn’t that how most states work? Having presence, control and authority within its borders? Or is the border of state only up to Galkacyo? It’s doesn’t just pertain to Puntland only but all regions within Somali. I don’t believe in federalism. Either we go our separate ways or all come under the central government of Somalia.

We’ve spent 15 years+ with this federalism nonsense and we still have the problems we had from day 1.

 

[Devilsadvocate]

it’s hard and I tell you why
First there needs to be reconcalition
I read sicid gees book about proper reconcaltion why is Somaliland a State and fucntioning because the guurti put allot of effort to solving all matters
There were isaaq reconciliatiion between their subclans then there were separate reconcaltion between gadabuursi and ciise . In 1992. Then there were seperate peace efforts between isaaq bari and harti woqoyi in ceerigaabo . This created a good atmosphere and some trust if you want proper reconciliation u neeed to follow the Somaliland model.

your question about why isn’t the Somali republic a state well reconcaltion between clans is needed

the second question is we need to adres the Somaliland issue . Ignoring their case Wont solve anything we have seen the damage they can do what would have we done if the mou was going ahead . Ethiopia would be on our shores for half a century . We need to adres the core issue with Somaliland. Secesion or re union and if we are going to have a country that includes them then the south needs to make some serious concession if this doesn’t happen I predict status quo armed conflict which will create more hatred between Somalia and Somaliland in the forseable future


then there is the puntland issue and federalism puntland feels betrayed they have put so much into peace building never given up on a united Somalia they created garowe 1 garowe 2 the federalism structure but the Mogadishu elites only pay lipservice to federalism non of the Turkish economic development project reach puntland aid money isn’t send back to Mogadishu if this path continues then puntland will disenage from somalia puntland first people in puntland are minority allot of puntland people specially the young people wil feel puntland can go it alone . If they see if Somaliland succeeds on their own. They Will follow this path Somaliland unrecognised got the dp world deal . Puntland feels it also can gain investments and the constitution change was the last slap on puntland . What do you expect

The 3rd issue is alshabaab shabaab can’t be defeated 17 years of war will show u this talks with shabaab need tonhappen maybe in Qatar a peace deal needs to be reached amisom can’t defeat shabaab we know so why not talk to alshabab a joint govt can be build

4th is good governance nationalism and rebuilding institutions this needs leadership the problem every president of the sfg is basically happy to be the mayor of Mogadishu as long as he Gets money funding and red carpets

We need to recognise SL as a country and work on reconciliation within our new borders

 

[caano_shaah]

We need to recognise SL as a country and work on reconciliation within our new borders

Last thing we need is more colonial borders drawn between us. This wont solve anything.

 

[Hassan Garguute Buldanana]

Federalism has never got a chance outside PL so saying it has failed is not accurate. Politicians whether kacanist daroods and especially Hawiye dont want it. In Hawiye case, they want to concentrate power in xamar where everthing is unukaleh. Dawlada unukaleh, casimaada unukaleh, international begging bowl aid unukaleh and is our tax money. Why should reer PL or anyone not from that region trust them?


At the same time, reer PL need to realize no one but them want faderalism and need to make a decision. You either join the circus or stay outside it like the idoors. We cant continue with this nonsense of we have cut ties with the FGS forever.

 

[Kun_Ciil]

it’s hard and I tell you why
First there needs to be reconcalition
I read sicid gees book about proper reconcaltion why is Somaliland a State and fucntioning because the guurti put allot of effort to solving all matters
There were isaaq reconciliatiion between their subclans then there were separate reconcaltion between gadabuursi and ciise . In 1992. Then there were seperate peace efforts between isaaq bari and harti woqoyi in ceerigaabo . This created a good atmosphere and some trust if you want proper reconciliation u neeed to follow the Somaliland model.

your question about why isn’t the Somali republic a state well reconcaltion between clans is needed

the second question is we need to adres the Somaliland issue . Ignoring their case Wont solve anything we have seen the damage they can do what would have we done if the mou was going ahead . Ethiopia would be on our shores for half a century . We need to adres the core issue with Somaliland. Secesion or re union and if we are going to have a country that includes them then the south needs to make some serious concession if this doesn’t happen I predict status quo armed conflict which will create more hatred between Somalia and Somaliland in the forseable future


then there is the puntland issue and federalism puntland feels betrayed they have put so much into peace building never given up on a united Somalia they created garowe 1 garowe 2 the federalism structure but the Mogadishu elites only pay lipservice to federalism non of the Turkish economic development project reach puntland aid money isn’t send back to Mogadishu if this path continues then puntland will disenage from somalia puntland first people in puntland are minority allot of puntland people specially the young people wil feel puntland can go it alone . If they see if Somaliland succeeds on their own. They Will follow this path Somaliland unrecognised got the dp world deal . Puntland feels it also can gain investments and the constitution change was the last slap on puntland . What do you expect

The 3rd issue is alshabaab shabaab can’t be defeated 17 years of war will show u this talks with shabaab need tonhappen maybe in Qatar a peace deal needs to be reached amisom can’t defeat shabaab we know so why not talk to alshabab a joint govt can be build

4th is good governance nationalism and rebuilding institutions this needs leadership the problem every president of the sfg is basically happy to be the mayor of Mogadishu as long as he Gets money funding and red carpets

Good points.

1) What concessions would the gov need to make in order to bring SL back to the fold?

2) I can understand Puntland grievances. That the gov in Mogadishu tries to undermine federalism and seeks centralization at every corner. However, what did they expect? As the gov in the centre gets stronger naturally they will turn on and reign in the regional states in order to centralize further and assert power . This federalism ideal is a pipe dream for them. Even Farmaajo tried to centralize. And look at Hamza Barre now and his support for the central gov. Regardless of who leads or what qabiil he hails from, a central gov with proper leadership and vision will always be in confrontation and at heads with Puntlands autonomy.

3) It’s true that the war against AS doesn’t look likely to produce a clear victor anytime soon. However, on what basis and what mutual alignments and ideology can the gov build a joint gov with them? AS want 200% shariah system, and the west, Ethiopia are against Islamic movements/systems gaining a hold in the Horn of Africa. So even if the gov makes concessions, they won’t be able to act on it unless the White House accepts.

4) No doubt. The foreign funding, ngos, amisom peacekeeping forces have left those in charge in Mogadishu happy with the status quo. It’s a poison, a couple of years mandate helping rebuild a state is feasible, but 20 years? Shows things clearly aren’t progressing.

 

[Jaffar]

On Somaliland the goverment can give the Somaliland leadership concessions to give them a special status with in the somali republic this has to be enshrined in the new constitution then Somaliland has to accept these condition they will get equal share in parliament like a two system confederal State system .Somaliland will be allowed to keep their goverment elections monatary system they will share only defense and overal sovreignty with Mogadishu and foreign policy in Exchange Somaliland will get the right to have independence referendum united nations supervised in 25 years time . This gives Mogadishu the time to solve it’s self strengthen it self build the country so by the time the independence referendum is held the people will likely vote for Union . But Mogadishu has to rebuild it self and make Somalia a viable state once people see the economic Wealth of the south they Will vote for Union. In those 25 years Mogadishu task only to rebuild and make the Union attractive . I think this is how u solve the issue with Somaliland this new deal will allow Mogadishu leadership to fly to Hargeisa propogate unionism as part of the new deal this gives Mogadishu a say in Somaliland affaire as wel and have influencer Somaliland gets more development and a say in the central goverment I don’t know the exact formulah but Mogadishu can save the Union by making these steps .

on puntland the leadership in Mogadishu isn’t honest it needs really some soul searching and be honest is Mogadishu honest about federalism if it’s not it’s need to say we don’t federalism but talks there needs to be serious talk to give puntland certain concession to stop their grievances to give them perhaps the Capital if not permanently temporarily. This needs to happen puntland needs to be given certain economic concessions as well other wise i don’t see a solution

As for alshabaab. Alshabaab needs a revolution it self with in there needs to be a face of alshabab that is somali and homegrown there is nothing wrong with a middle ground alshabaab gives concessions and the govt will concessions alshabaab needs to drop international agenda and the Somali govt will adopt more sharia based laws in the constitution and alshabaab gets a say in the parliament and govt to integrate there is nothing kenya and Ethiopia can do if the somali govt makes peace with alshabaab what can they do will the west sanction the govt. The govt they created i doubt it they will never they will have to start all over . The other solution is if a new govt is build from puntland for 34 years we tried to build a govt from Mogadishu. Perhaps we need to build a new Somalia from boosaaso that is also an option.

 

[Ultra Opinionated]

On Somaliland the goverment can give the Somaliland leadership concessions to give them a special status with in the somali republic this has to be enshrined in the new constitution then Somaliland has to accept these condition they will get equal share in parliament like a two system confederal State system .Somaliland will be allowed to keep their goverment elections monatary system they will share only defense and overal sovreignty with Mogadishu and foreign policy in Exchange Somaliland will get the right to have independence referendum united nations supervised in 25 years time . This gives Mogadishu the time to solve it’s self strengthen it self build the country so by the time the independence referendum is held the people will likely vote for Union . But Mogadishu has to rebuild it self and make Somalia a viable state once people see the economic Wealth of the south they Will vote for Union. In those 25 years Mogadishu task only to rebuild and make the Union attractive . I think this is how u solve the issue with Somaliland this new deal will allow Mogadishu leadership to fly to Hargeisa propogate unionism as part of the new deal this gives Mogadishu a say in Somaliland affaire as wel and have influencer Somaliland gets more development and a say in the central goverment I don’t know the exact formulah but Mogadishu can save the Union by making these steps .

on puntland the leadership in Mogadishu isn’t honest it needs really some soul searching and be honest is Mogadishu honest about federalism if it’s not it’s need to say we don’t federalism but talks there needs to be serious talk to give puntland certain concession to stop their grievances to give them perhaps the Capital if not permanently temporarily. This needs to happen puntland needs to be given certain economic concessions as well other wise i don’t see a solution

As for alshabaab. Alshabaab needs a revolution it self with in there needs to be a face of alshabab that is somali and homegrown there is nothing wrong with a middle ground alshabaab gives concessions and the govt will concessions alshabaab needs to drop international agenda and the Somali govt will adopt more sharia based laws in the constitution and alshabaab gets a say in the parliament and govt to integrate there is nothing kenya and Ethiopia can do if the somali govt makes peace with alshabaab what can they do will the west sanction the govt. The govt they created i doubt it they will never they will have to start all over . The other solution is if a new govt is build from puntland for 34 years we tried to build a govt from Mogadishu. Perhaps we need to build a new Somalia from boosaaso that is also an option.

HSM wants centralization and 1m1v, this will always cause conflict with PL and Juubaland.

Also the last paragraph is pure fiction. If AS wanted negotiations, they would have done it when they owned the entire South in 2009, and the TFG only owned a few blocks of Mogadishu.

 

[Kun_Ciil]

Federalism has never got a chance outside PL so saying it has failed is not accurate. Politicians whether kacanist daroods and especially Hawiye dont want it. In Hawiye case, they want to concentrate power in xamar where everthing is unukaleh. Dawlada unukaleh, casimaada unukaleh, international begging bowl aid unukaleh and is our tax money. Why should reer PL or anyone not from that region trust them?


At the same time, reer PL need to realize no one but them want faderalism and need to make a decision. You either join the circus or stay outside it like the idoors. We cant continue with this nonsense of we have cut ties with the FGS forever.

I don’t think it’s going to work because like you said no one other than PL are fully on board with federalism. Hawiye benefit from the capital being in Xamar and centralization. You saw with Farmaajo how he absolutely toyed with the federal states. He placed Lafta Gareen in Konfur Galbeed, Qoor Qoor in Galmudug and if his tenure didn’t end he would’ve taken Kismayo by any means necessary.

And then PL would’ve been isolated fully. It would either completely go the Sland independence route or make concessions ,weakening their autonomy and come under the central gov.

I just want an end to this game. This game of charade called the Somali federal government. Either we unite or we split. However, if we split we need to make mutual pacts and agreements. For example, that if any new formed state was attacked by an outside force I.e Ethiopia that the different states would come to one anothers aid. Similar to the pact of aggression Kenya and Ethiopia have against Somalia. Other agreements in movement between states, economic trade and military agreements and co-operation.

If we didn’t have expansionist Ethiopia as neighbours I would say Balkanize, and then if we want in the future to naturally make alliances and form states together. For example, Galmudug+Hirshabelle+Banaadir can form one block. Jubbaland OG and MX need to settle their differences with a power sharing model and build a block. Konfur Galbeed have big potential

If we all split without outside interference, Mashallah I think we would all competitively compete with each other and let’s say after 20 years the best states and the ones lacking can all be seen clearly. No blaming other tribes, every tribe would be accountable for their regions hormar.

It’s actually the most viable and logical solution if we didn’t have an existential threat next door…

 

[Jaffar]

HSM wants centralization and 1m1v, this will always cause conflict with PL and Juubaland.

Also the last paragraph is pure fiction. If AS wanted negotiations, they would have done it when they owned the entire South in 2009, and the TFG only owned a few blocks of Mogadishu.

What makes u think as wanted negotations the govt needs negotations as are terrorist and want to take the whole country It’s the so called govt inay dadka u tudhan oo ay la heshiiyaan argagixsada

 

[Ultra Opinionated]

What makes u think as wanted negotations the govt needs negotations as are terrorist and want to take the whole country It’s the so called govt inay dadka u tudhan oo ay la heshiiyaan argagixsada

That’s my point. They don’t want negotiations.

 

[Kun_Ciil]

On Somaliland the goverment can give the Somaliland leadership concessions to give them a special status with in the somali republic this has to be enshrined in the new constitution then Somaliland has to accept these condition they will get equal share in parliament like a two system confederal State system .Somaliland will be allowed to keep their goverment elections monatary system they will share only defense and overal sovreignty with Mogadishu and foreign policy in Exchange Somaliland will get the right to have independence referendum united nations supervised in 25 years time . This gives Mogadishu the time to solve it’s self strengthen it self build the country so by the time the independence referendum is held the people will likely vote for Union . But Mogadishu has to rebuild it self and make Somalia a viable state once people see the economic Wealth of the south they Will vote for Union. In those 25 years Mogadishu task only to rebuild and make the Union attractive . I think this is how u solve the issue with Somaliland this new deal will allow Mogadishu leadership to fly to Hargeisa propogate unionism as part of the new deal this gives Mogadishu a say in Somaliland affaire as wel and have influencer Somaliland gets more development and a say in the central goverment I don’t know the exact formulah but Mogadishu can save the Union by making these steps .

on puntland the leadership in Mogadishu isn’t honest it needs really some soul searching and be honest is Mogadishu honest about federalism if it’s not it’s need to say we don’t federalism but talks there needs to be serious talk to give puntland certain concession to stop their grievances to give them perhaps the Capital if not permanently temporarily. This needs to happen puntland needs to be given certain economic concessions as well other wise i don’t see a solution

As for alshabaab. Alshabaab needs a revolution it self with in there needs to be a face of alshabab that is somali and homegrown there is nothing wrong with a middle ground alshabaab gives concessions and the govt will concessions alshabaab needs to drop international agenda and the Somali govt will adopt more sharia based laws in the constitution and alshabaab gets a say in the parliament and govt to integrate there is nothing kenya and Ethiopia can do if the somali govt makes peace with alshabaab what can they do will the west sanction the govt. The govt they created i doubt it they will never they will have to start all over . The other solution is if a new govt is build from puntland for 34 years we tried to build a govt from Mogadishu. Perhaps we need to build a new Somalia from boosaaso that is also an option.

Difficult decisions will have to be made because right now I’m reminded of this quote in regards to Somalia

“The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results”