Is independent Oromia good or bad for Somalia?

[Octavian]

Let's assume Oromia managed to gain independence. Will it be good for Somalia or not?

There won't that veneer or envelope of stateliness Ethiopia has or had till now. I am afraid Oromia will quickly turn its eyes onto Somalia with plans to grab our coastline. Their numbers don't bode well for Somalia. Do you think it is better for Somalia to have them tangled up with Habashis in united Ethioipia? Can independent Oromia behave as a good neighbor?

I think the now escalating TPLF and Addis Ababa frictions are the real opportunity of Oromos to break free. It is scary times for Somalia.

an unstable ethiopia is good for us as long as the somali gov can exploited it

 

[Removed]

@Removed I don't think you fully understand the popular hatred that got built up among Oromos against Habashis as the rulers of Ethiopia. The Oromo leaders come and go. Ordinary people on the other hand carry the resentment through and over multiple generations.

On your first point, geography was never a limiting factor for self-rule movements around the world. The disputes Oromos have with the neighboring states do not constitute a unified obstacle against them. To the contrary, the relationships among those states are volatile and it won't be that hard to employ their weaknesses for solidify the Oromo plans. Habashi Amhara are not one thing with Habashi Tigray. Somalia is not in alliance with Kenya. Djibouti is not a concubine of Eritrea. Somaliland would rather prefer to save the drowning Yemenis than help Somalis not be eaten by sharks.

On your second point, Habashis ruled Ethiopia. See how far they got in reigning in Oromos. What makes you think that Oromos would be any more successful in yoking Habashis in one Ethiopia now?

Independence is a far better option for Oromos in the long term. Once they get strong as an sovereign country, Oromos can start a push at annexing adjacent territories on their own terms and not on the federalist/centralist utopian under-the-gun state.

My question to you is this: Who is actually in charge in Ethiopia right now? What group?

Its a new age in Ethiopia its starting to democratize Oromo dominance is inevitable in Ethiopia they know that so why would they secede? Why would they secede when they dont even have addis and other cities?

Obviously Abiy and the prosperity party im guessing you mean Amhara though.

 

[BetterDaysAhead]

Who will succeed from Ethiopia first tigray or oromo

 

[Rom]

Who will succeed from Ethiopia first tigray or oromo

none will never secede.
but if somehow a miracle happens it will be oromos first cuz tigray doesn't hate ethiopia as much as some oromos plus they will collapse once they secede cuz they have nothing in their region unlike oromos.

 

[AbdiGeedi]

Its a new age in Ethiopia its starting to democratize Oromo dominance is inevitable in Ethiopia they know that so why would they secede? Why would they secede when they dont even have addis and other cities?

Obviously Abiy and the prosperity party im guessing you mean Amhara though.

Oromos would want to secede to not have Habashis breathing over their shoulders. Habashis won't let peasant Oromos dominate them and will always find a way to skew things in their favor. Abiy is no longer Oromo, but Oromesque Ambara for all practical purposes. As in the movie "Shooter" Danny Glover says: "You lose. I win. Again". That's what Amharas did to Oromos through Abiy. That's why the likes of Jawar are up in arms against Abiy.

 

[AbdiGeedi]

none will never secede.
but if somehow a miracle happens it will be oromos first cuz tigray doesn't hate ethiopia as much as some oromos plus they will collapse once they secede cuz they have nothing in their region unlike oromos.

Tigray borders Eritrea. Both share the same ancestry and that is what matters. There is a reason why Abiy flew yesterday to Eritrea to beg Afwerki not to side with Tigray. Addis Ababa is losing control over Tigray.

 

[Yahya]

Long term we win provided we are prepared and our leaders are competent enough to put aside their differences and work together to help galbeed defend their borders.

However the scenario is unlikely as Ethiopia has very good diplomacy skills and would be helped by the west to quell any civil war, even if it means tigray and Amhara tag team to kill millions of oromos.

 

[Rom]

Tigray borders Eritrea. Both share the same ancestry and that is what matters. There is a reason why Abiy flew yesterday to Eritrea to beg Afwerki not to side with Tigray. Addis Ababa is losing control over Tigray.

lol no
abiy and eri dictator are working together to put tigray under ethiopian control. tplf has been fucking with eritrea for a loooong time spreading propaganda and everything trying to pit ethnic groups against each other which is why eritreans hate tplf as much as ethiopians.

 

[AbdiGeedi]

lol no
abiy and eri dictator are working together to put tigray under ethiopian control. tplf has been fucking with eritrea for a loooong time spreading propaganda and everything trying to pit ethnic groups against each other which is why eritreans hate tplf as much as ethiopians.

And yet the TPLF has asked for help from Eritrea against Addis Ababa. It means Tigray is ready to set aside the differences between the two.

 

[Rom]

And yet the TPLF has asked for help from Eritrea against Addis Ababa. It means Tigray is ready to set aside the differences between the two.

so what r u thinking tplf is about to join eritrea? or secede and be economically crippled? tplf will always be tplf and try and take over addis.

 

[AbdiGeedi]

Long term we win provided we are prepared and our leaders are competent enough to put aside their differences and work together to help galbeed defend their borders.

However the scenario is unlikely as Ethiopia has very good diplomacy skills and would be helped by the west to quell any civil war, even if it means tigray and Amhara tag team to kill millions of oromos.

As long as Ethiopia occupies Somalia and the landers keep undermining the Somali unity, we have little chance to win.

I believe now only Oromos can reign in Oromos. The West won't help Habashis. They would not want to face social accountability back in their home countries. The stakes are not too high for them anyway. It is not the oil-rich Middle East and Ethiopia is not Israel.

 

[Yahya]

As long as Ethiopia occupies Somalia and the landers keep undermining the Somali unity, we have little chance to win.

I believe now only Oromos can reign in Oromos. The West won't help Habashis. They would not want to face social accountability back in their home countries. The stakes are not too high for them anyway. It is not the oil-rich Middle East and Ethiopia is not Israel.

Ethiopia (Ogaden) is oil rich. 200bn barrels in ogaden according to the Chinese oil company, lots of gas too.

 

[Rom]

Oromos would want to secede to not have Habashis breathing over their shoulders. Habashis won't let peasant Oromos dominate them and will always find a way to skew things in their favor. Abiy is no longer Oromo, but Oromesque Ambara for all practical purposes. As in the movie "Shooter" Danny Glover says: "You lose. I win. Again". That's what Amharas did to Oromos through Abiy. That's why the likes of Jawar are up in arms against Abiy.

abiy and his goons are all oromo nationalists
did u forget the amhara officials he assassinated last year? or how he hasn't done anything for the amharas that got slaughtered but instead is trying to save face with oromos and proving his "oromoness". or how the right hand man of abiy was accused of housing scandals where he gave all of em unfairly to oromos clandestinely. u can also find anti amhara videos of a lot of his right hand men's past interviews.

 

[AbdiGeedi]

so what r u thinking tplf is about to join eritrea? or secede and be economically crippled? tplf will always be tplf and try and take over addis.

Of course they are trying to secede.

 

[AbdiGeedi]

Ethiopia (Ogaden) is oil rich. 200bn barrels in ogaden according to the Chinese oil company, lots of gas too.

Ethiopia is not a player in the international oil markets like SA, Qatar or Bahrain. Habashis have no strong diaspora in the West to rally huge support.

There is one recent interesting example of how blood plays a role in the international affairs.

The British PM, Boris Johnson, is of Turkish descent. Ever since he came to power there is basically zero problems between the two countries. Britain squarely kept itself out of the Libya geopolitical tussle even though it was always the second after the US in political and military clout in North Africa.

When there was the naval incident between France and Turkey off the coast of Libya a month or two ago, France convened the NATO meeting to punish Turkey. Britain was first to speak and almost in literal terms told France to shut the f*ck up. Macron got so humiliated that France suspended its participation its NATO activities in the East Med.

 

[Abaadir]

Let's assume Oromia managed to gain independence. Will it be good for Somalia or not?

There won't that veneer or envelope of stateliness Ethiopia has or had till now. I am afraid Oromia will quickly turn its eyes onto Somalia with plans to grab our coastline. Their numbers don't bode well for Somalia. Do you think it is better for Somalia to have them tangled up with Habashis in united Ethioipia? Can independent Oromia behave as a good neighbor?

I think the now escalating TPLF and Addis Ababa frictions are the real opportunity of Oromos to break free. It is scary times for Somalia.

I prefer the African American of Ethiopia under their masters chains Oromo need to be controlled and herded they are more backward than Somalis the Habesha are doing us a huge favor

 

[mustang22]

Egypt will win this battle by default as Ogaden rejoins with Somalia and Oromo get their independence.

 

[FarxanFarax223]

Egypt will win this battle by default as Ogaden rejoins with Somalia and Oromo get their independence.

How are you so sure?