Is Ethiopia a Rwandan genocide in the making?

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Von

With blood and Iron will we reach the fatherland
Ethiopia is slowly sleepwalking into ethnic war. Can it be averted?

In 2004, the former Chairman of the Coalition for Unity and Democracy (CUD) party, Hailu Shawul, held a conference in Addis Ababa before the election. In his speech, Hailu told the crowd that he was not worried about the ruling party, the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front (TPRF), imprisoning him and the opposition. "I am most concerned about the slow and sporadic mass killings due to the false hope of unrealistic tribal borders," he said.

Almost 13 years later, the deadly consequences of ethnic-federalism is resulting in increasing tension within Ethiopian society.

Over the last several days, dozens of Sidamas have been killed and a further 50,000 have been cleansed out of a region that straddles the Oromia and Somali regions—previously known as Bale—by Oromo extremists, a region the two communities shared for centuries.

And last month, nearly a thousand Oromos and Somalis perished due to another tribal border conflict in the southeast – a region that can never be ethnically demarcated due to the nomadic lifestyle of each side. Many of the dead were women and children, with tens of thousands more becoming refugees in their own country.

This is the ugly face of Ethiopia's ethnic-federalism, an apartheid-style separation of land that divides people based on tribe. It is a dangerous experiment created and institutionalised by former TPLF Prime Minister Meles Zenawi.


Ethiopia has over 80 different ethnic groups. The Oromo and Amhara comprise over 60 percent of the population. Ethiopia is also divided along religious lines. 43 percent of the population is Ethiopian Orthodox, 33 percent are Muslim and 19 percent Protestant. (TRTWorld)
It will get worse as more ethnic elites rise up and become impatient with the harsh reality that ethnic-federalim on paper is unrealistic and impractical on the ground.

Just like Rwanda's tribal warlords, the Ethiopian "activists" and intellectuals representing various tribes have stirred up the country like never before.

Unlike Rwanda, these tribal elites are often western-based and educated: and they use internet and social media; not radio or walkie-talkies. For instance, tribal elites like Tekle Yeshaw, Jawar Mohammed, Tsegaye Ararrsa and others have become outspoken about the failures of TPLF's ethnic based administration.

The big problem is that these tribal elites don't want democracy, and they don't oppose tribalism; they actually want more of it.

For example, Tekle Yeshaw claims towns in northern Gondar, of the Amhara administrative unity, belong only to his Amhara tribe; and Tsegaye Ararssa has spread propaganda that non-Oromos are "alien" and "settlers" in Addis Ababa; while Jawar Mohamed is famous for chanting "Ethiopia out of Oromia."

Oblivious of the fact that Oromos themselves migrated to this area and that the former Gondar province was never synonymous with "Amhara," such misinformed tribal elites have instigated the so-called #Oromoprotests and #Amharaprotests.

All these tribal elites share one thing in common with former Ethiopian President Meles Zenawi: the disastrous and archaic notion that every piece of land in Ethiopia is exclusively owned by one ethnicity.

It is this dangerous concept that motivated some Oromo students to rise up against the natural expansion of a diverse metropolitan city like Addis Ababa. Diversity, globalization, urbanization and multiculturalism are a threat to the narrow ethnocentric worldviews of tribal elites.

A worldview has been imposed nationwide since 1991 by the TPLF Ministry of Education, where ethnic politics is valued more than the math and science. Therefore, many analysts are not surprised that the new drivers of the opposition are actually former students, soldiers and ex-cadres of the Oromo Peoples' Democratic Organization (OPDO) and Amhara National Democratic Movement (ANDM) branches of the ruling party.

With dreams of rewriting the multiethnic history of Addis Ababa and the larger Shewa region; Tribal nationalists have recently demanded renaming the various districts of Addis Ababa in another language. Now, the only thing stopping genocidal tribalism from repeating what they did in Bale, again in Addis Ababa, is the capital city's status as the political center of Africa and host to international embassies.

Away from the eyes of the international community, ethnic conflicts are heating up in every rural area. Even the US Embassy in Addis Ababa announced its concern with "troubling reports of ethnic violence and the large-scale displacement of people."

This is a big deal, because it takes a lot for Western governments to admit problems facing their darling ally in Addis Ababa.

A few dozen dead Ethiopians is usually not a big deal for the West. It's not that they don't value human life, but mostly because they don't have very high expectations of Africa. We may call it a soft bigotry of low expectations or a by-product of geopolitics.

Since the end of the Cold War, the West hardly cared about the Horn of Africa, and even well-informed observers admit that the bar is set very low for the TPLF. But how low? A British journalist recently gave me his pessimistic assessment of TPLF's job approval through western eyes. "There hasn't been a resumption of civil war (in Ethiopia)-- which is an achievement," he concluded.

This is a blunt reminder that the world has no plans to end this Rwanda in slow motion. Ethiopians are alone.

Ironically, a big factor that has prevented Ethiopia from collapsing altogether is the primary trademark of TPLF's tyrannical rule: its homogenous Tigrayan federal security.

Unlike the previous DERG regime which had a multiethnic diverse federal army that defected under pressure; the TPLF federal army is immune from desertion and enjoys strong ethnic cohesion. Whether an overstretched single tribal army can contain so many crises in a country of 102 million, remains to be seen. One thing is for sure; once tribal killings starts, they can quickly spiral out of control.

As we saw in Somalia, even warlords became powerless to stop the cycle of war. And Ethiopia's Facebook warriors and instigators will have even less power to stop future conflicts.

As in Rwanda and countless other conflicts, the endless cycle of revenge violence has a tendency to take on a life of its own.
https://www.trtworld.com/opinion/is-ethiopia-a-rwandan-genocide-in-the-making--11261
 
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Professor

The name is Professor, Haji Professor
I hate the desire for more ethnic integration as form of a solution. It is like they are implying that these people deserve to be under one country. Sometimes I think journalists are stupid the reason why ethiopia is in these repeated crisis is especially due to the fact it consists of too many different ethnicities. No nation is similar to Ethiopia. It is an dictatorial nation that can only survive through blood and violence. Never Would a nation like this exist if it weren't for the genocidal policies they government enact to keep power and the foriegn support they have.

Also how can they compare ethiopia to somalia it isn't the same thing:what:
 
I hate the desire for more ethnic integration as form of a solution. It is like they are implying that these people deserve to be under one country. Sometimes I think journalists are stupid the reason why ethiopia is in these repeated crisis is especially due to the fact it consists of too many different ethnicities. No nation is similar to Ethiopia. It is an dictatorial nation that can only survive through blood and violence. Never Would a nation like this exist if it weren't for the genocidal policies they government enact to keep power and the foriegn support they have.

Also how can they compare ethiopia to somalia it isn't the same thing:what:
Because its the same idea, except its more pathetic in the case of Somalia because its not different ethnic groups but clans from the same one.
 

Merchant of Mogadishu

From Pella to Pattala, then back to Babylon
Now Somalia's role in this up and coming conflict is to not do anything at all, besides covertly and slowly increase Somali national sentiments in Ogaden and Harar.

Somalia will be like the carrion bird, when it sees a fresh dead corpse, in this case Ethiopia. We'll slowly surround it and take the spoils, in this case, Ogaden and Harar. We'll call a referendum and the people will decide to join Somalia. Ethiopia will be too weak to do anything about it and so the IC shall side with Somalia.
 
Now Somalia's role in this up and coming conflict is to not do anything at all, besides covertly and slowly increase Somali national sentiments in Ogaden and Harar.

Somalia will be like the carrion bird, when it sees a fresh dead corpse, in this case Ethiopia. We'll slowly surround it and take the spoils, in this case, Ogaden and Harar. We'll call a referendum and the people will decide to join Somalia. Ethiopia will be too weak to do anything about it and so the IC shall side with Somalia.
Let them gain indepdence first.

Its's exciting times all those people that died and it ends up them destroying themself that is the trigger.
 

Professor

The name is Professor, Haji Professor
Its an analogy of course its not exactly the same
it isn't even an analogy. the period they are talking about is not the same one you are thinking of. He is referring to 1988 to 1991 aftermath period. Not the current Federal states period somalia is in now. This period under farmaajo can be compared to them to a certain extent. However it is still not the same.
 
it isn't even an analogy. the period they are talking about is not the same one you are thinking of. He is referring to 1988 to 1991 aftermath period. Not the current Federal states period somalia is in now. This period under farmaajo can be compared to them to a certain extent. However it is still not the same.
They didn't mention any period in the article. Since they used both Rwanda and Somalia as examples I assume they're referencing divisions leading to war whether its ethnic/clan.
 

Professor

The name is Professor, Haji Professor
They didn't mention any period in the article. Since they used both Rwanda and Somalia as examples I assume they're referencing divisions leading to war whether its ethnic/clan.
When he Mentions about Somali warlords and the resulting chaos that occurred after it. There are not many warlords left today so they are probably referring about that period.
 

Von

With blood and Iron will we reach the fatherland
Now Somalia's role in this up and coming conflict is to not do anything at all, besides covertly and slowly increase Somali national sentiments in Ogaden and Harar.

Somalia will be like the carrion bird, when it sees a fresh dead corpse, in this case Ethiopia. We'll slowly surround it and take the spoils, in this case, Ogaden and Harar. We'll call a referendum and the people will decide to join Somalia. Ethiopia will be too weak to do anything about it and so the IC shall side with Somalia.
In the reality, Somalia cant do anything when AMISOM runs the security of the country, most of our people have nothing to eat and let's not forget FMS and Roger regions. Its all up to Western Somalia to support itself, against the Ethiopian from the east and Kenyans from the south.
I hate the desire for more ethnic integration as form of a solution. It is like they are implying that these people deserve to be under one country. Sometimes I think journalists are stupid the reason why ethiopia is in these repeated crisis is especially due to the fact it consists of too many different ethnicities. No nation is similar to Ethiopia. It is an dictatorial nation that can only survive through blood and violence. Never Would a nation like this exist if it weren't for the genocidal policies they government enact to keep power and the foriegn support they have.

Also how can they compare ethiopia to somalia it isn't the same thing:what:
The mere suggestion that integration is on the table continues to hurt the Tigray regime, even if they don't collapse for the next the 20ish years, the more riots and protesting will give Somalia room to actually tackles a wide range of issues without Ethiopian meddling
 

Shaolin23

Seeker of knowledge and truth
Ethiopia will never fall until Western power in the region dramatically decreases which I don't see happening soon if the TPLF are forced from power expect a Christian oromo and amhara coalition replaced soon after by an amhara only led govt it is in the interest of the IC to keep that order in Ethiopia at all costs
 

Professor

The name is Professor, Haji Professor
In the reality, Somalia cant do anything when AMISOM runs the security of the country, most of our people have nothing to eat and let's not forget FMS and Roger regions. Its all up to Western Somalia to support itself, against the Ethiopian from the east and Kenyans from the south.

The mere suggestion that integration is on the table continues to hurt the Tigray regime, even if they don't collapse for the next the 20ish years, the more riots and protesting will give Somalia room to actually tackles a wide range of issues without Ethiopian meddling
That could be an potentially possible but the issue that is kinda like a limbo. Oromo and somali leaders have had many a time to take advantage of the choas but completely failed. Only if somalis are willing to push for more control will they ever be in situation to eventually secede however I would believe that it is more likely for there to be a change of power then them ever becoming free or gaining more power for themselves. Without a somali state there will be no really large changes to ever occur. They are too small and too divide by clan lines to be United and make an impact.
 

Merchant of Mogadishu

From Pella to Pattala, then back to Babylon
In the reality, Somalia cant do anything when AMISOM runs the security of the country, most of our people have nothing to eat and let's not forget FMS and Roger regions. Its all up to Western Somalia to support itself, against the Ethiopian from the east and Kenyans from the south.
You are correct, unity and strength in our nation is a first before anything else.
 

fox

31/12/16 - 04/04/20
VIP
China and other investors wont allow Ethiopia to fall.
Now Somalia's role in this up and coming conflict is to not do anything at all, besides covertly and slowly increase Somali national sentiments in Ogaden and Harar.

Somalia will be like the carrion bird, when it sees a fresh dead corpse, in this case Ethiopia. We'll slowly surround it and take the spoils, in this case, Ogaden and Harar. We'll call a referendum and the people will decide to join Somalia. Ethiopia will be too weak to do anything about it and so the IC shall side with Somalia.
supplement on zinc and stay off the ****.
 

Thegoodshepherd

Galkacyo iyo Calula dhexdood
Staff Member
Ethiopia should not exist as a country, it is the last colonialist country in Africa. The Habash are colonizers along the same lines as the Italians in the Horn, it is just that they managed to convince Westerners that black on black colonialism is fine. Ethiopia is a prison of nations, and is very fragile as a result. The problem is that the Habash are more united than the Oromo and will go to war if they ever sense that the Oromo are about to gain control. Amhara are willing to tolerate Tigray rule and vice versa, but neither will ever tolerate Oromo rule out of Addis. The religous division amongst the Oromo is the great wedge that prevents them from gaining power, and the Habash have been very good at exploiting that.

Somalis do not matter at all in Ethiopian politics and are not seen as Ethiopian by the highlanders. If any region can successfully secede it would be the Somali region as it is cutoff from the rest of Ethiopia politically already. It is essentially under military occupation.
 

Merchant of Mogadishu

From Pella to Pattala, then back to Babylon
China and other investors wont allow Ethiopia to fall.

supplement on zinc and stay off the ****.
I've never engaged in that disgusting habit sxb.

China can't do anything when ethnic groups will be killing each other. The USA couldn't do anything when the civil war was happening in Somalia.

I know it hurts but you must know that you along with so many other people have been ideologically poisoned by the corrupt and villainous politicians for over 2 decades. You must realise the crude truth sxb.
 

Professor

The name is Professor, Haji Professor
They didn't mention any period in the article. Since they used both Rwanda and Somalia as examples I assume they're referencing divisions leading to war whether its ethnic/clan.
when the refer to the warlords they are talking about the significant ones back in 1991. The main problem now is al Shabab not the warlords.
 
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