Look man, I understand why you want to separate from Somalia and remain that way. However, you are over simplifying the situation in the future.
The issue for Somaliland is that this as independent as a state they will ever become. Somaliland will not receive international recognition until Somalia has accepted it, this is in line with the norms that bind modern nation states. A stable Somalia will see less international partners willing to advocate the case for Somaliland, for example notice that Kurdistan is most mentioned when Iraq is in turmoil.
If this is as independent as Somaliland will ever become, then it is still better than any horrible union with Somalia. You southerners have this silly notion in your head that we are only holding onto our independence as a means to get recognition. Independence
IS our goal, recognition would be a huge bonus. There is a very famous video of Somaliland's first Vice-President, Mujaahid Xassan Ciise Jaamac, walking through a completely destroyed Hargeisa , as part of a documentary in 1992. He is asked by the journalist if the world knows that Somaliland exists. As he walks around completely unprotected and joking with the local population, he tells the journalist that we are not too concerned with what the world thinks - we have our own government, our freedom and our people can go about their lives not worrying about that going anywhere, or a return to our formal situation.
Our stance has been one and the same from 18th May 1991.
Recognition would be huge for Somaliland, but it is not the be all and end all. That is our freedom and our ability to govern ourselves. No-one will take that away from us. A de-facto, independent status for the rest of time would be more preferable to Somaliland than any proposed re-union with Somalia.
Also, a self-declared nation with its own currency, army and government, is considered a threat to the sovereignty of a nation-state. Somalia will have an argument to make that Somaliland is a treasonous entity that harms its existance as a nation-state, which is backed up by neo-realist international relations theory, the dominant school of thought in the subject.
No matter how you huff and puff, and beg to the international community, they will never sanction any action taken against a democratic, peaceful and successful government like that of Somaliland. They would certainly never back you in a war to reclaim Somaliland.
A stable Somalia, as aforementioned, will have the ability to control the sea and the airspace around Somaliland. Maybe not excellently but better than Somaliland would be able to. Furthermore, as a stable nation, Somalia will have its arms embargo removed which will allow it to overtake the military capacity of Somaliland.
You speak too much about hypotheticals and pipedreams. I like to deal in reality. In reality for a longtime now, Somaliland has had extremely good control over its sea. It does not allow any unauthorized fishing, and other then the odd small time Yemeni fisherman, no foreign agents have been able to fish our sea like they have basically raped Somalia's seas now for decades. It goes without saying that piracy has never been an issue in the see off the Somaliland coast. I mention this only to reiterate, that just like the rest of Somaliland's territory, if Somalia ever wants to think about trying to claim Somaliland's sea, it'll have to do so by force.
Furthermore, due to the precedent set by the US, any war caused by Somalia against SL will be considered self-defence as SL has threatened the stability of Somalia, a recognised nation-state.
Complete and utter arsewater of the highest kind. No-one in the IC will sanction any war by Somalia against a peaceful, democratic and successful government in Somaliland. Keep dreaming.
