I did not know the Ethiopian government was this poor

[Barkhadle1520]

Ahh a spiralling state with a rough future economically and governmentally.

Add a sprinkle of nationalism and expansionism i’m sure this can only be good for HoA

Spoiler: To Ezna, 2000 years from now

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The GERD and access to the coast is Ethiopia's only hope to save itself

Abiy is just trying everything so he can get access to the coast, he knows Eritrea is too risky, so he's trying to see if he can weaken Somalia a bit more right now, his goal isnt to go on some conquest in Koonfur to get access to the coast there, which is unrealistc given shabab and all the armed Somalis concentrated in that place

What he's trying to do is to weaken the Somali government to a point where they become his vassals, he wants another Gedi, he wants to order around Somalis like his puppets, just like Ethiopia was successfully doing in the 90s with governments like the TNG

And believe it or not he's kinda successful for now, he made perfect use of the divide and conquer strategy with Madoobe, he took advantage of the tensions between Madoobe and FGS so he's now allied with Madoobe and showing support to him officially and military has we've seen in the past weeks, and Abiy is trying to get a strong grip on Jubaland so he can get access to Kismayo, most of the public doesn't know this and they're fixated on the Somaliland MoU but it's so obvious I'm sure every Somali politician knows it by now Kismayo and Madoobe are a greater risk and a much bigger reward for Abiy, FGS also has to deal with shabab between them and Jubaland so they're cooked

We were critizising HSM for what he did attacking Jubaland but when you look into it he has no other choice by now, even if it was Farmajo I think conflict with Ethiopia and Madoobe was inevitable

Im gonna rewrite this in another separate new thread cause I kinda been cooking

 

[Barkhadle1520]

Why do u hate ethiopians guure??

I tried to not be biased at all in this thread, I dont understand what you mean habo

 

[SpaceyCadet]

The GERD and access to the coast is Ethiopia's only hope to save itself

Abiy is just trying everything so he can get access to the coast, he knows Eritrea is too risky, so he's trying to see if he can weaken Somalia a bit more right now, his goal isnt to go on some conquest in Koonfur to get access to the coast there, which is unrealistc given shabab and all the armed Somalis concentrated in that place

What he's trying to do is to weaken the Somali government to a point where they become his vassals, he wants another Gedi, he wants to order around Somalis like his puppets, just like Ethiopia was successfully doing in the 90s with governments like the TNG

And believe it or not he's kinda successful for now, he made perfect use of the divide and conquer strategy with Madoobe, he took advantage of the tensions between Madoobe and FGS so he's now allied with Madoobe and showing support to him officially and military has we've seen in the past weeks, and Abiy is trying to get a strong grip on Jubaland so he can get access to Kismayo, most of the public doesn't know this and they're fixated on the Somaliland MoU but it's so obvious I'm sure every Somali politician knows it by now Kismayo and Madoobe are a greater risk and a much bigger reward for Abiy, FGS also has to deal with shabab between them and Jubaland so they're cooked

We were critizising HSM for what he did attacking Jubaland but when you look into it he has no other choice by now, even if it was Farmajo I think conflict with Ethiopia and Madoobe was inevitable

Im gonna rewrite this in another separate new thread cause I kinda been cooking

I’m really not seeing a play for Kismayoo. The heart of Ethiopia is addis and the stretch of land they’d need to carve and reinforce anything south side is too much.

It’s all theatrics for his base and give them some sense they’re still in the imperial days.

 

[Barkhadle1520]

I’m really not seeing a play for Kismayoo. The heart of Ethiopia is addis and the stretch of land they’d need to carve and reinforce anything south side is too much.

It’s all theatrics for his base and give them some sense they’re still in the imperial days.

Well then tell me what other coast is easier to take than Kismayo

Eritrea is a big fat no and too much risk, SL is complicated and they will never be able to fully annex it or a have a maritime base there, most somalis like you think Kismayo is out of reach but by the way things are going right now, they may be in kismayo before 2030, they dont even need to fight that much Madoobe is fully on their side

 

[ZBR]

One of the biggest threats to Somalia is if we accept electricity from the GRED it will basically be giving them a carte blanche to start attacking other parts of Somalia or other Muslims like Sudan and other will stay silent since they’re addicted the cheap electricity partly is what’s happening in Gaza

Both Egypt and Jordan are dependent on Israel for gas for their grids, and it’s much cheaper than LNG that they can even feign or move

 

[ZBR]

I disagree on taxing mobile money because people don’t have much recourse since it’s usually denominated in dollars and they have no access to dollars

It will break the people backs and it’s quite unethical in our context when it’s almost impossible to work around

 

[ZBR]

Another thing thats quite funny is if Ethiopia gets access to a port, it probably won’t do anything productive with it like Eritrea since they’re a castle economy that depends on the state for everything and they don’t have a maritime trade history or culture.

the sad thing would be though if they take our ports, the region is full people with expertise and if Somalis give in and collaborate with them it could be productive for them , ‏نعوذ بالله من ذلك

 

[karima999]

Lol y'all obsessed with Ethiopians

 

[ZBR]

Ethiopia does need severity, think of ways to annoy them

 

[novanova]

Lol y'all obsessed with Ethiopians

They’re our neighbours and we’re impacted by what goes on in their country.. makes sense to keep up with their economy and politics

 

[karima999]

They’re our neighbours and we’re impacted by what goes on in their country.. makes sense to keep up with their economy and politics

Sorry didn't know that

 

[sweetnya]

They’re our neighbours and we’re impacted by what goes on in their country.. makes sense to keep up with their economy and politics

What did I expect from an Arab

 

[The Oponian Guild]

Lol y'all obsessed with Ethiopians

Aren’t you yemeni? lol

 

[sums20]

Lol y'all obsessed with Ethiopians

Mind you we have somalis living in that country directly impacted by them and their policies

 

[Stimpy]

They also took our lands only because the British gave it to them as a prize, pathetic.

 

[Zak12]

Well then tell me what other coast is easier to take than Kismayo

Eritrea is a big fat no and too much risk, SL is complicated and they will never be able to fully annex it or a have a maritime base there, most somalis like you think Kismayo is out of reach but by the way things are going right now, they may be in kismayo before 2030, they dont even need to fight that much Madoobe is fully on their side

Kismayo's port is not only too far away, its underdeveloped as well and so isn't suitable for Ethiopia's need. Why else do you think they reject Kenya's Lamu port despite being able to use it? Its either Assab or bust, Kismayo offers little strategic value.