The GERD and access to the coast is Ethiopia's only hope to save itselfAhh a spiralling state with a rough future economically and governmentally.
Add a sprinkle of nationalism and expansionism i’m sure this can only be good for HoA
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Abiy is just trying everything so he can get access to the coast, he knows Eritrea is too risky, so he's trying to see if he can weaken Somalia a bit more right now, his goal isnt to go on some conquest in Koonfur to get access to the coast there, which is unrealistc given shabab and all the armed Somalis concentrated in that place
What he's trying to do is to weaken the Somali government to a point where they become his vassals, he wants another Gedi, he wants to order around Somalis like his puppets, just like Ethiopia was successfully doing in the 90s with governments like the TNG
And believe it or not he's kinda successful for now, he made perfect use of the divide and conquer strategy with Madoobe, he took advantage of the tensions between Madoobe and FGS so he's now allied with Madoobe and showing support to him officially and military has we've seen in the past weeks, and Abiy is trying to get a strong grip on Jubaland so he can get access to Kismayo, most of the public doesn't know this and they're fixated on the Somaliland MoU but it's so obvious I'm sure every Somali politician knows it by now Kismayo and Madoobe are a greater risk and a much bigger reward for Abiy, FGS also has to deal with shabab between them and Jubaland so they're cooked
We were critizising HSM for what he did attacking Jubaland but when you look into it he has no other choice by now, even if it was Farmajo I think conflict with Ethiopia and Madoobe was inevitable
Im gonna rewrite this in another separate new thread cause I kinda been cooking
