I did not know the Ethiopian government was this poor

[Barkhadle1520]

Many like to point out how poor the FGS is as a government compared to other governments in the region, comparing it to Ethiopia especially

But I just found out Ethiopia's government might be poorer, let me explain

So we all know FGS makes 1b in revenue a year

The Ethiopian government, which manages around 132million people, makes 612 billion birr a year in total revenue

If => $1 = 57.1537 birr => 612b birr is equal to 10b usd of revenue each year

https://www.reuters.com/markets/eth...-gdp-next-fiscal-year-2024-06-11/?utm_source=

Most people don't realize how low that is for a country of over 100+ million people

To put it into perspective : In theory, Somalia as a whole which has nearly 20m people, would require a government that makes around 10b usd a year to function normally and provide basic services to its population, The Ethiopian government would need more than 70-100b usd in revenue each year to function normally, 10 times what they make now, so essentially this government is much much more fragile than we think, Amhara sources weren't lying when they said their resources are stretched very thin

If you put it to scale, if Ethiopia had the same number of people as Somalia, the government would make only 1B in revenue a year which is literally the same as FGS right now

But theres a very big difference between FGS and Ethiopia, FGS barely controls the country and doesnt provide for other independent states

This means that if you add PL and SL and Shabaab's annual revenue, Somali government(s) makes around 2b a year, which is still not enough but that would mean if Ethiopia and Somalia had the same population, the Somali government would be richer, still not enough but definitely more per capita

 

[Barkhadle1520]

This is honestly insane, I couldnt believe it when I was looking into it, the Ethiopian government apparently struggles A LOT with tax collection, like 1/3 of Amhara region doesnt pay any taxes and is controlled by amhara militias, they also have way too many rural and nomadic people, many of them moving to cities but finding no work, and since they dont know anyone and dont live within their qabil and kin like somalis do they find no help and are forced to make money any way they can, this is why the country has so many prostitutes

The situation looks hopeless for Ethiopia, theyve had multiple budget deficits the past years and are stacky up in debt, but in the contrary for Somalia the future looks bright (in theory) let me explain

So the Somali governments since independence have always had the same problem and struggled to tax their population




But since the 2010s, 80% of Somalis now use mobile money, and in 2018 32b a year flowed through mobile money, as of now the fgs has no oversight or control over this money they can only regulate which provider offers these services and hand them licences to operate like Hormuud and their EVC+, lack of control and oversight is also why this number doesnt appear in the GDP

Mobile money has now given the government opportunity to tax that flow of money, if they manage to tax it in the future it would be revolutionary for them and would be an instant boost of revenue

If they tax just 10% of mobile money transactions, they could make up to 4b a year or more from just mobile money taxation, bringing their annual revenues close to 5b a year, a very significant and instant boost in revenues, there is also the very smart oil deal they signed, and in theory they should earn 70% of revenues in the 2030s, this would get them close to 8b a year in revenue, and when you add other independent states the number could reach the ideal 10b in revenue mark ideal for running the country, if you read the NTP 2025-9 theyre also gonna do many PPP projects like the special economic zone, invest in the fishery sector etc, all of which will bring them more revenue

All of this is in theory, Im not biased towards fgs but lets be honest they will always manage to find a way to f*ck everything up, thats just how they work, in fact they might not exist in a decade who knows, but this is an economical analysis so lets ignore the politics for the sake of it

Overall, one thing is certain, in theory a Somali government which rules the whole of Somalia would almost certainly be way richer than ethiopia with a strong economy, and eventually more influence, this is literally why Ethiopia and the US were scared of the ICU and invaded xamar in 2006 to put the puppet and corrupt tfg/fgs regime to power, creating shabaab, piracy, famine, disasters and all the things somalia is known for today

This is why I say Somalia would be unrecognizable today had the 2006 invasion not happened, literally everything were known for wouldnt exist and the country would be so stupidly rich compared to today, its a whole different timeline

 

[celidheere]

This is honestly insane, I couldnt believe it when I was looking into it, the Ethiopian government apparently struggles A LOT with tax collection, like 1/3 of Amhara region doesnt pay any taxes and is controlled by amhara militias, they also have way too many rural and nomadic people, many of them moving to cities but finding no work, and since they dont know anyone and dont live within their qabil and kin like somalis do they find no help and are forced to make money any way they can, this is why the country has so many prostitutes

The situation looks hopeless for Ethiopia, theyve had multiple budget deficits the past years and are stacky up in debt, but in the contrary for Somalia the future looks bright (in theory) let me explain

So the Somali governments since independence have always had the same problem and struggled to tax their population




But since the 2010s, 80% of Somalis now use mobile money, and in 2018 32b a year flowed through mobile money, as of now the fgs has no oversight or control over this money they can only regulate which provider offers these services and hand them licences to operate like Hormuud and their EVC+, lack of control and oversight is also why this number doesnt appear in the GDP

Mobile money has now given the government opportunity to tax that flow of money, if they manage to tax it in the future it would be revolutionary for them and would be an instant boost of revenue

If they tax just 10% of mobile money transactions, they could make up to 4b a year or more from just mobile money taxation, bringing their annual revenues close to 5b a year, a very significant and instant boost in revenues, there is also the very smart oil deal they signed, and in theory they should earn 70% of revenues in the 2030s, this would get them close to 8b a year in revenue, and when you add other independent states the number could reach the ideal 10b in revenue mark ideal for running the country, if you read the NTP 2025-9 theyre also gonna do many PPP projects like the special economic zone, invest in the fishery sector etc, all of which will bring them more revenue

All of this is in theory, Im not biased towards fgs but lets be honest they will always manage to find a way to f*ck everything up, thats just how they work, in fact they might not exist in a decade who knows, but this is an economical analysis so lets ignore the politics for the sake of it

Overall, one thing is certain, in theory a Somali government which rules the whole of Somalia would almost certainly be way richer than ethiopia with a strong economy, and eventually more influence, this is literally why Ethiopia and the US were scared of the ICU and invaded xamar in 2006 to put the puppet and corrupt tfg/fgs regime to power, creating shabaab, piracy, famine, disasters and all the things somalia is known for today

This is why I say Somalia would be unrecognizable today had the 2006 invasion not happened, literally everything were known for wouldnt exist and the country would be so stupidly rich compared to today, its a whole different timeline

they suffer from farming africa/china problems they need to urbanise and bring people into the economy

we have a lot of people who have to live in urbanised areas to survive due to the climate

 

[Barkhadle1520]

they suffer from farming africa/china problems they need to urbanise and bring people into the economy

we have a lot of people who have to live in urbanised areas to survive due to the climate

Go on Google maps and zoom in on Addis Ababa

The more they urbanize, the worse and bigger the slums will get, the government doesn't even have 1/1000 of the money needed to give these people housing, I'm sure you've seen the big kawloon like blocks they're building but that will quickly turn into its own slums

China is different than other countries

All land in the country is state owned so if they want to build or destroy stuff theres no problem doing it and it gets done very fast compared to other governments all around the world who always struggle with land acquisitions when they want to build something, entire districts were built in weeks in china and standardized design made it cheaper

Also imagine the trouble it would cause if the government started bulldozing the thousands of informal housing, thats a recipe for disaster especially with ethnic tensions

Ethiopia also can't urbanize or build housing as fast as China did because it lacks the strong institutions, economic resources and very large manpower

China had a huge capital, they also took dirt cheap loans from state owned banks and attracted massive foreign investment, Ethiopia on the other hand has limited access to global capital markets because of high risk, they also already have a ton of debt and useless foreign funded projects

Ethiopia has built up so much public debt from stupid infrastructure projects that in 2021 they asked for help with their debt from the G20 framework which passed and then the IMF and World Bank forced them to cut spending and borrowing until all debt is paid, so they have no funds for public housing

In 2021 their Debt to GDP ratio was 53% and their debt was 68 billion in 2024, knowing their government revenue trends and their budget deficits they will probably pay back the debt by the end of the century Honestly I think the situation is much worse than it looks, the Debt to GDP ratio might be even greater since they fake their GDP numbers

They're just doomed wallahi + they're landlocked which makes their situation even worse

 

[Keep it a boqol]

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[Hilmaam]

Use ChatGPT or any other AI can easily do all this for you and give you actual accurate numbers

 

[Rayaale]

$1 = 57.1537 birr

More like 1 dollar is equivalent to 138 birr

 

[Barkhadle1520]

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Yes random infrastructure projects, Abiy destroyed the country financially in 2021

13B$ palace you cant make this up

https://zehabesha.com/abiy-ahmed-ethiopias-modern-day-idi-amin-dada/?utm_source=

He built this museum on top of of slums, tens of thousands became homeless became he had to demolish a whole district

https://www.theguardian.com/global-...is-razed-for-development-ethiopia?utm_source=

How many Billions has this dude spent in less than a decade

He's also building this futiristic sub-city on top of Amhara parts of the city, while searching about this I noticed he's targeting Amhara slums specifically, the project's logo is also a oromo tree I guess this is his way of expressing his anger at amhara beating him in the highlands

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sheger_City?utm_source=

Similar type of project, Chaka city

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaka_Project?utm_source=

There's also the billion $ Djibouti-Addis railway, you would think after Kenya messed it up he would learn from their mistakes

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Addis_Ababa–Djibouti_Railway?utm_source=

 

[Barkhadle1520]

More like 1 dollar is equivalent to 138 birr

Yeah it got worse but at the time that was the exchange rate, its in the article

 

[SpaceyCadet]

Yes random infrastructure projects lmao, Abiy destroyed the country financially in 2021

13B$ palace you cant make ts up

https://zehabesha.com/abiy-ahmed-ethiopias-modern-day-idi-amin-dada/?utm_source=
View attachment 369527

He built this museum on top of of slums, tens of thousands became homeless became he had to demolish a whole district

https://www.theguardian.com/global-...is-razed-for-development-ethiopia?utm_source=
View attachment 369528

How many Billions has this dude spent in less than a decade

View attachment 369529
View attachment 369530

He's also building this futiristic sub-city on top of Amhara parts of the city, while searching about this I noticed he's targeting Amhara slums specifically, the project's logo is also a oromo tree I guess this is his way of expressing his anger at amhara beating him in the highlands

View attachment 369533View attachment 369532
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sheger_City?utm_source=


There's also the billion $ Djibouti-Addis railway, you would think after Kenya messed it up he would learn from their mistakes

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Addis_Ababa–Djibouti_Railway?utm_source=
View attachment 369534
View attachment 369535
View attachment 369536

atleast the railway had local workers to help out with. some good

 

[Barkhadle1520]

atleast the railway had local workers to help out with. some good

Yeah thats a couple hundred jobs at most, Im curious if a railway project like that would work anywhere in somalia

 

[SpaceyCadet]

Yeah thats a couple hundred jobs at most, Im curious if a railway project like that would work anywhere in somalia

it was like a 5k djibouti and 25k in ethiopia. so atleadt some of the money also came back.

Probably not, ethiopia doesn’t currently have the demand yet either. You need freights when you’re moving larger quantitaties. but idk

 

[Barkhadle1520]

it was like a 5k djibouti and 25k in ethiopia. so atleadt some of the money also came back.

Probably not, ethiopia doesn’t currently have the demand yet either. You need freights when you’re moving larger quantitaties. but idk

They got lots of debt building and operating it, but youre right my guess was wrong its probably in the couple thousands, I was thinking the trains were driven, maintained and operated by foreigns

 

[Barkhadle1520]

Putting into perspective how weak Ethiopia really is makes you realize how even weaker fgs is to be getting bullied and protected by them

 

[Hilmaam]

Putting into perspective how weak Ethiopia really is makes you realize how even weaker fgs is to be getting bullied and protected by them

This is Subsaharan Africa never be surprised by govt dysfunction and economic output

 

[Barkhadle1520]

This is Subsaharan Africa never be surprised by govt dysfunction and economic output

Lol Fgs is bad even by african standards