I did not know the Ethiopian government was this poor

[Barkhadle1520]

Many like to point out how poor the FGS is as a government compared to other governments in the region, comparing it to Ethiopia especially

But I just found out Ethiopia's government might be poorer, let me explain

So we all know FGS makes 1b in revenue a year

The Ethiopian government, which manages around 132million people, makes 612 billion birr a year in total revenue

If => $1 = 57.1537 birr => 612b birr is equal to 10b usd of revenue each year

https://www.reuters.com/markets/eth...-gdp-next-fiscal-year-2024-06-11/?utm_source=

Most people don't realize how low that is for a country of over 100+ million people

To put it into perspective : In theory, Somalia as a whole which has nearly 20m people, would require a government that makes around 10b usd a year to function normally and provide basic services to its population, The Ethiopian government would need more than 70-100b usd in revenue each year to function normally, 10 times what they make now, so essentially this government is much much more fragile than we think, Amhara sources weren't lying when they said their resources are stretched very thin

If you put it to scale, if Ethiopia had the same number of people as Somalia, the government would make only 1B in revenue a year which is literally the same as FGS right now

But theres a very big difference between FGS and Ethiopia, FGS barely controls the country and doesnt provide for other independent states

This means that if you add PL and SL and Shabaab's annual revenue, Somali government(s) makes around 2b a year, which is still not enough but that would mean if Ethiopia and Somalia had the same population, the Somali government would be richer, still not enough but definitely more per capita

 

[Barkhadle1520]

This is honestly insane, I couldnt believe it when I was looking into it, the Ethiopian government apparently struggles A LOT with tax collection, like 1/3 of Amhara region doesnt pay any taxes and is controlled by amhara militias, they also have way too many rural and nomadic people, many of them moving to cities but finding no work, and since they dont know anyone and dont live within their qabil and kin like somalis do they find no help and are forced to make money any way they can, this is why the country has so many prostitutes

The situation looks hopeless for Ethiopia, theyve had multiple budget deficits the past years and are stacky up in debt, but in the contrary for Somalia the future looks bright (in theory) let me explain

So the Somali governments since independence have always had the same problem and struggled to tax their population




But since the 2010s, 80% of Somalis now use mobile money, and in 2018 32b a year flowed through mobile money, as of now the fgs has no oversight or control over this money they can only regulate which provider offers these services and hand them licences to operate like Hormuud and their EVC+, lack of control and oversight is also why this number doesnt appear in the GDP

Mobile money has now given the government opportunity to tax that flow of money, if they manage to tax it in the future it would be revolutionary for them and would be an instant boost of revenue

If they tax just 10% of mobile money transactions, they could make up to 4b a year or more from just mobile money taxation, bringing their annual revenues close to 5b a year, a very significant and instant boost in revenues, there is also the very smart oil deal they signed, and in theory they should earn 70% of revenues in the 2030s, this would get them close to 8b a year in revenue, and when you add other independent states the number could reach the ideal 10b in revenue mark ideal for running the country, if you read the NTP 2025-9 theyre also gonna do many PPP projects like the special economic zone, invest in the fishery sector etc, all of which will bring them more revenue

All of this is in theory, Im not biased towards fgs but lets be honest they will always manage to find a way to f*ck everything up, thats just how they work, in fact they might not exist in a decade who knows, but this is an economical analysis so lets ignore the politics for the sake of it

Overall, one thing is certain, in theory a Somali government which rules the whole of Somalia would almost certainly be way richer than ethiopia with a strong economy, and eventually more influence, this is literally why Ethiopia and the US were scared of the ICU and invaded xamar in 2006 to put the puppet and corrupt tfg/fgs regime to power, creating shabaab, piracy, famine, disasters and all the things somalia is known for today

This is why I say Somalia would be unrecognizable today had the 2006 invasion not happened, literally everything were known for wouldnt exist and the country would be so stupidly rich compared to today, its a whole different timeline