HSM visit to America focused on lifting of arms embargo

[Gaandheri]

And what weapons are these? Only thing they could provide are the same ammunitations and aks everyone else does.

Not much help. Even our illegal military importers can provide better equipment than them

Ethiopia has weapons factories Somalia doesn’t produce its own weapons we both know that HSM just has to ask for those weapons, Cagjar gave weapons to hiiraan when they asked for it.

He can also ask Afwerki or smuggle weapons in from Yemen or Bulgaria not small arms but heavy weapons.

 

[El Nino]

“At tomorrow’s meeting, Council members may reiterate their strong condemnation of the continued attacks perpetrated by Al-Shabaab and express support for the federal government’s renewed determination to combat the threat posed by terrorism and violent extremism in Somalia. They may call on the Somali government to accelerate the implementation of the STP and the NSA as a decisive factor for the ATMIS drawdown. The Council members are expected to renew the ATMIS mandate prior to its 30 June expiration. At the time of writing, Council experts are negotiating a draft resolution proposed by the UK, the penholder on Somalia, to renew the ATMIS mandate.”

the only thing that will happen as AMISOM mandate going to be increased, whoever thinks Sadaq John and HSM walking into New York together to get arms embargo lifted is going to happen are dreaming. This is from the security council report website.

ATMIS is being funded by EU who have over the years scaled down on their funding and agreed on handing the responsibility to SNA. Its a new day. Its clear the western countries aren’t going to fund ATMIS anymore, they are broke.

UK has no say in this, they are not part of the EU. Their proposal doesn’t reflect on what has been agreed by the keyholders (USA, EU, Un).

 

[Abdalla]

Why and when did Amisom change its name to Atmis? Is there a difference between the two in terms of mission and jurisdiction

 

[Gaandheri]

Why and when did Amisom change its name to Atmis? Is there a difference between the two in terms of mission and jurisdiction

Back in Farmaajo’s term a deal was signed that amisom would go into transition mode hence African Union Transition Mission and SNA would take responsibility of the security.

 

[bidenkulaha]

ATMIS is being funded by EU who have over the years scaled down on their funding and agreed on handing the responsibility to SNA. Its a new day. Its clear the western countries aren’t going to fund ATMIS anymore, they are broke.

UK has no say in this, they are not part of the EU. Their proposal doesn’t reflect on what has been agreed by the keyholders (USA, EU, Un).

Also renewing ATMIS mandate means they’ll continue the plan on withdrawing by 2024.

It doesn’t mean any extension. The only reason there’s ATMIS is because it’s a transition plan, they will now have handed over 7 bases to SNA by the end of this month.

So the last mandate has been fulfilled (which got a 6 month extension as FGS argued they weren’t ready). Another 3-5k planned by end year

 

[bidenkulaha]

Ethiopia has weapons factories Somalia doesn’t produce its own weapons we both know that HSM just has to ask for those weapons, Cagjar gave weapons to hiiraan when they asked for it.

He can also ask Afwerki or smuggle weapons in from Yemen or Bulgaria not small arms but heavy weapons.

Sadaq Jon is a big arms dealer within Bulgaria. HSM has no need for Ethiopia for that stuff.

Point is Ethiopia doesn’t offer much. Cagjar gave some fuel and small ammunition to Jeyte. Liyu Police don’t even have the stuff you’re implying he gave. They always were only allowed light weapons.

You overestimate Ethiopia’s ability or interest in helping Somalia fight Shabaab. They’ve been here for 2-3 decades now and will not want to leave

 

[GaradShabeel]

I don’t see Jubbaland and maybe Southwest State being liberated without arms embargo being lifted. Hopefully weapons don’t end up in the wrong hands

Beesha Caalamka aren't dumb. They'll pay a close attention once the embargo is lifted; if SNA then abuse the new weapons or end up being accessible to non-state actors, expect the US and other western countries to call for sanctions. Possibly even bring it up to the UN (though most likely not to reinstate the embargo).

 

[bidenkulaha]

Beesha Caalamka aren't dumb. They'll pay a close attention once the embargo is lifted; if SNA then abuse the new weapons or end up being accessible to non-state actors, expect the US and other western countries to call for sanctions. Possibly even bring it up to the UN (though most likely not to reinstate the embargo).

They will fail. Somalia by then will ally fully with a veto power. It’s why they are so resistant on lifting it because they know it won’t come back.

I used to argue against lifting it but we won’t have a more committed government of fighting Shabaab in a long time so might as well now before we fall to Shabaab as ATMIS pulls out

 

[Gaandheri]

Sadaq Jon is a big arms dealer within Bulgaria. HSM has no need for Ethiopia for that stuff.

Point is Ethiopia doesn’t offer much. Cagjar gave some fuel and small ammunition to Jeyte. Liyu Police don’t even have the stuff you’re implying he gave. They always were only allowed light weapons.

You overestimate Ethiopia’s ability or interest in helping Somalia fight Shabaab. They’ve been here for 2-3 decades now and will not want to leave

why would he ask cagjar he can ask abiy and he will give him heavy weapons or ask china a better choice would be the Russians.

Sadaq isn’t giving those weapons to SNA his own clansmen maxamed ingriis exposed him for selling weapons to militias, shabaab.

 

[GaradShabeel]

They will fail. Somalia by then will ally fully with a veto power. It’s why they are so resistant on lifting it because they know it won’t come back

True, but individual countries can issue sanctions. If US for some reason do it (again most likely not, to prevent pushing away Somalia from its sphere closer to Russia/China), most countries will comply to not get sanctioned themselves. Look at Iran and how their relationship with other countries got impacted by US sanctions.

 

[bidenkulaha]

True, but individual countries can issue sanctions. If US for some reason do it (again most likely not), most countries will comply to not get sanctioned themselves. Look at Iran and how their relationship with other countries got impacted by US sanctions.

Yh actually I agree. America still has a lot of leverage post arms embargo. Most countries respect their sanctions even China. But I think they’d first go the economic route as we’re a totally reliant country on the dollar and US donations. Doubt Somalia goes out of line and uses any weaponry on non-terrorists

 

[GaradShabeel]

I used to argue against lifting it but we won’t have a more committed government of fighting Shabaab in a long time so might as well now before we fall to Shabaab as ATMIS pulls out

It will also open up a pandora box, as SL will also be allowed to freely get weapons without any repercussions. Obviously, SL is and will not be a threat to the rest of Somalia, but they may exploit their partners to get weapons support from foreign countries, to 'match' SNA's increasing capabilities. Hope the gov't knows about the can of worms being opened with the removal of arms embargo.

 

[bidenkulaha]

It will also open up a pandora box, as SL will also be allowed to freely get weapons without any repercussions. Obviously, SL is and will not be a threat to the rest of Somalia, but they may exploit their partners to get weapons support from foreign countries, to 'match' SNA's increasing capabilities. Hope the gov't knows about the can of worms being opened with the removal of arms embargo.

There’s no chance SL gets access to heavy arms like aircraft and tanks. If it’s being lifted it has to be to the FGS exclusively

 

[GaradShabeel]

There’s no chance SL gets access to heavy arms like aircraft and tanks. If it’s being lifted it has to be to the FGS exclusively

Unless FGS forwards those demands with the UN, it will not automatically occur, since the same embargo is placed for the whole Somalia (if I recall correctly).

It will resemble like Taiwan being able to purchase weapons by themselves without any major hindrance, as well as being supplied directly (donations by the US), despite the disapproval of China.

FGS may control (or at least partially) SL's airspace, but not their port nor roads.

 

[bidenkulaha]

Unless FGS forwards those demands with the UN, it will not automatically occur, since the same embargo is placed for the whole Somalia. Not specified for SFG nor SL by themselves (if I recall correctly).

It will resemble like Taiwan being able to purchase weapons by themselves without any major hindrance, as well as being supplied directly (donation by the US), despite the disapproval of China.

Somalia may control (or at least partially) SL's airspace, but not their port. The more powerful they get, they more SFG's authority can be challenged.

There has to be an amendment that sort of keeps it otherwise that would allow Shabaab access to more heavy weapons.

Currently there’s exemptions in the arms embargo. They just need to increase those like currently partner forces within SNA are allowed specific things others aren’t. Should widen that to SNA

 

[bidenkulaha]

Somali President, Austin Discuss Future, Partnership During Pentagon Meeting

Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III welcomed Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud to the Pentagon, praising him for real progress at a very dangerous time.

www.defense.gov

Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III welcomed Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud to the Pentagon today praising the Somali leader for real progress at a very dangerous time.

Austin said the two men are meeting at a key moment in Mohamud's presidency as the African Union begins a drawdown in the country and Somali forces are stepping up.

"This period will be especially important given the ongoing hostilities — including instability in Sudan — and the persistent threat of al-Shabaab," Austin said. "I've been encouraged to hear of the continued success of the current phase of Somali-led operation against al-Shabaab in central Somalia. Our cooperation on these operations is crucial, and we stand ready as your partner as you defend yourselves against these dangerous and violent forces."


Austin thanked the Somali president for the "transparency of your security initiatives and the inclusion of key international partners in the planning of the Somali-led transition. As we look to 2025 and beyond, I remain grateful for the willingness of your government and your people to host our forces in Somalia."

Mohamud thanked Austin for America's aid and support over more than three decades. While still facing tremendous hurdles, the country is closer to peace than it has been for a long time, the president said. "I would like to extend my gratitude to the United States government for the assistance to the Somali people in our fight against al-Shabaab," he told Austin.

Mohamud said the Somali National Army has recovered more than 70 locations from al-Shabaab in partnership with local communities over the last year. He said the military and government have also improved upon security through enhanced intelligence efforts, which have meant a "marked reduction" in attacks in the capital city of Mogadishu.

"Somalia has been in a unique situation," the president said. "We are again and again very grateful for the support provided by the United States. Many issues that I have raised with you last time when I visited here [are] still standing. But so far, we are so good, and we are very much satisfied for the level of support provided. I thank you."

 

[Rocktheboat]

This government looks so professional. I'm starting to like Somalis a bit more

 

[bidenkulaha]

 

[bidenkulaha]

Seems to confirm there’s a vote tomorrow

 

[Abdalla]

Aka thanks for coming over for coffee, but I can’t grant you your request.