HSM officially declares his support Ethiopia and the GERD

[Zak12]

> Ethiopia doing years of preparation to invade Assab
> If Ethiopia doesnt get coast access in the following decades they're literally cooked
> Ethiopia is going to make billions in additional profits in the following years (to fund their war)

"Yeah its all good bro dont worry, they're not going to do anything"

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I'm sure they will try. But actually succeeding is a whole different case.

>immense political power

Because that totally helped Saudi Arabia in Yemen

 

[Barkhadle1520]

Im confused why you think these other east african countries will make themselves so heavily reliant on ethiopian electricity to the point ethiopia could use it as a political weapon ?

They dont even need to be overly reliant that wasnt my point

What does Somalia give to these countries ? Why would South Sudan support Somalia instead of Ethiopia their neighbor which is giving them electricity ?

This would also make the gap between Kenya and Somalia bigger, also I'm pretty sure Djibouti and South Sudan are likely to become reliant

My point is that tomorrow if Abiy pulls another move like Gedo on Somalia he will have more supporters

 

[Midas]

If and when Ethiopia decides to go to war against eritrea. It will be the straw that breaks the camels back. This is not the eritrea of 1998-2000 . After the U.N arms embargo was lifted from eritrea in 2018. They've been able to freely import all sorts of weapons. God knows how large of an arsenal they've been able to build up over the last 7 years.

 

[Barkhadle1520]

I'm sure they will try. But actually succeeding is a whole different case.

>immense political power

Because that totally helped Saudi Arabia in Yemen

Comparing the Afar depression to the densely populated Yemeni highlands is another level of stupidity, Saudis have also never tried a real invasion to annex land and the invasion was chaotic MBS barely knew what he was doing

 

[Barkhadle1520]

If and when Ethiopia decides to go to war against eritrea. It will be the straw that breaks the camels back. This is not the eritrea of 1998-2000 . After the U.N arms embargo was lifted from eritrea in 2018. They've been able to freely import all sorts of weapons. God knows how large of an arsenal they've been able to build up over the last 7 years.

They still have mostly legacy stuff from the war decades ago because they cant afford anything new, Eritrea barely has a running economy I dont even know how they made enough to survive to this point

Without the threat of Ethiopia invading again they would definitely overthrow Iseas, same situation as FGS with Shabab

 

[Zak12]

Comparing the Afar depression to the densely populated Yemeni highlands is another level of stupidity, Saudis have also never tried a real invasion to annex land and the invasion was chaotic MBS barely knew what he was doing

Why do you think Eritrea is heavily defending that area and have been securing their frontiers? Its not going to be easy either way. And my point with the Saudi comparison is showing that even with all the support in the world, they can't even properly fight some militias. If MBS doesn't know what he is doing then Abiy is in over his head.

And of course, an invasion of Eritrea would trigger sanctions and may allow Egypt to summon a coalition. There are so many factors against Ethiopia, them annexing Assab is not realistic whatsoever. Just ask Eritreans man.

 

[Idilinaa]

That is an ambitous plan but one that will go beyond Abiy's term. GERD alone isn't going to suddenly fix Ethiopia's economy and lift millions out of poverty. Its another expensive vanity project.

It's pure cult economics. Gerd actually plunged them into large public debt and it is entangled in corruption and it locked up a large funds that could have otherwise been used for economy growth.

Mega corruptions in mega projects: Debating the... | F1000Research

Read the original article in full on F1000Research: Mega corruptions in mega projects: Debating the dynamics of dam construction in Ethiopia

f1000research.com

Basically 2.5 trillion Birr is 162 billion which is massive.


Reflect on what this means, because the government borrowed heavily from local banks to finance it which means there is less credit for households or businesses , so it pretty much slashes private investment for economic growth. They are basically crowding out, banks lended more to the government and less to businesses and households .

Their national electric power supplier carries 5 billion in debt which means they have to jack up tariffs to finance cost recovery which makes electricity way more expensive for Ethiopians and it means higher input cost for businesses. Instead of GERD delivering cheap power for development, Ethiopians may pay more just to cover financial shortfalls.


Not only is their Public debt rising but their external debt to GDP-export ratio stands at 179.8%, they struggle to generate enough foreign currency to service this debt. Even if they export they will still not earn foreign exchange at the scale needed in the short term.

Ethiopia’s Public Debt Rises 25% in Five Years, Hits $68.9 Billion in 2024 - DNE Africa

Ethiopia's total public debt, encompassing both external and domestic obligations, surged 25.3% over five years to reach $68.9 billion by June 2024, according

africa.dailynewsegypt.com

So it really doesn't open up much fiscal space for Ethiopia to actually benefit from GERD even if they start exporting because the external and public debt is high. Which means fewer resources for health, education, social safety nets, or even other infrastructure projects.

They are going to grapple with a long economic fiscal strain which likely lead to more borrowing and that will make them debt spiral . If the government resorts to central bank financing, more birr in circulation risks higher inflation, reducing real incomes. Which is suicidal since the inflation sky high already and wages are abysmal.

And ''Cult Economics" that Ethiopian journalist i shared yesterday used to describe Abyi Ahmed Economy is accurate even to explain GERD because it became less about rational cost–benefit analysis and more about national pride, political legitimacy, and symbolism. Citizens were pressured (salary deductions, bond purchases) to finance it, which can resemble a “forced patriotic economy” rather than a purely market-based project.

It’s as if peasants are compelled to surrender their resources and labor so that a king can build a grand palace, while their own living conditions steadily deteriorate.

 

[Itsnotthateasy]

And who allowed Ethiopia to stay ? They had two chances to at least replace Ethiopia by another country

You are deluded if Ethiopia could be forced to leave. US went against the MoU to keep Ethiopia in Somalia. Multiple statements by the HOA special envoy confirm this. Statements at the UN too.

President of Somalia is not sovereign leader and cannot exercise symbolic sovereignty over the security interests of powerful countries. UNSC makes the final decision.

AU was interested in giving Somalia say over TCC but in the end they cannot authorize or fund AUSSOM.

Anyway since new adminstration was incoming US abstained on AUSSOM mandate vote and has rejected increased use of UN funds. AUSSOM remains unfunded.

 

[El Nino]

I wasnt aware of this, when have they stopped funding troops ? Youre aware they also pay Somali soldiers right

Will the possible end of the AU Mission in Somalia open new opportunities for peace? – Amani Africa

amaniafrica-et.org

The minute AMISOM transformed to ATMIS, the writing was on the wall. 93 million USD has not been paid by the EU to the troop contributing countries since 2022. That amount is likely much more higher now as AUSSOM has not received any funding for 8 months. The gravy train is over.

Somali soldiers payment is theoretically much more secure, even though it still comes from mostly US. The problem is corruption, that severely limits the capabilit

Trump supported Egypt bombing the dam

Forgot about this, just shows if FGS/somalis played their card right, Ethiopia could be fended off.

Are you forgetting where 60% of FGS's tiny annual budget comes

There is nothing stopping FGS from limiting corruption and investing the budget efficiently. The mps get 5000 USD a month no tax for example, they don’t even need the half of that. I live in a country that ranks in the top 5 for HDI and the politicians don’t even get that much of money. This shows the mentality the elite have. They are mentally gaajo, only difference against the common folk is the missing physical part.

The tiny budget is a problem, but it doesn’t mean they can’t be more efficient and grab low lying fruits. Matter of fact, FGS management of key assets and help of ”allies” has been abysmal.

Somalia accuses Turkish firms Favori LLC, Al-Bayrak of breaching infrastructure contracts

Mogadishu (HOL) — The Somali government has accused Turkish firms Favori LLC and Al-Bayrak of breaching profit-sharing agreements critical to managing Mogadishu's key infrastructure, including Aden Adde International Airport and Mogadishu Port. These alleged breaches raise significant concerns...

hiiraan.com

Turkey has been an ally of FGS for 16 years now and there were signs of good first. However, due to FGS lacking a backbone, Turkey has benefited far more then Somalia. In exchange for the port and airport, they have trained thousands of soldiers and many of them have received more rigorous training in Turkey itself. Where is the result on the battlefield? The offensive against AS was successfull in the beginning due to macawiisleys and they are the ones now who are last line of defense for FGS. Waa yaab. A competent government would restructure these deals and benefit far, far more. Alas, the FGS is just malic

FGS was only accepted by Somalis because Al Shabab turned into an AQ proxy, most Somalis saw Shabab as the successor of the ICU before they started the Khawarij stuff like suicide bombings

If Shabab didn't exist FGS could either fix up or get overthrown in a few years, not in between like we have right now, the war against Shabab is the only thing keeping FGS safe from being overthrown, people are basically forced to swallow the FGS pill

There is actually, for example since they dont control the whole country their authority is so weak and they cant tell mobile money companies to implement taxes nationwide cause it would clash with the clan states like PL and SL and the companies would have big problems with those governments

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[Idilinaa]

It's pure cult economics. Gerd actually plunged them into large public debt and it is entangled in corruption and it locked up a large funds that could have otherwise been used for economy growth.

Mega corruptions in mega projects: Debating the... | F1000Research

Read the original article in full on F1000Research: Mega corruptions in mega projects: Debating the dynamics of dam construction in Ethiopia

f1000research.com

Basically 2.5 trillion Birr is 162 billion which is massive.


Reflect on what this means, because the government borrowed heavily from local banks to finance it which means there is less credit for households or businesses , so it pretty much slashes private investment for economic growth. They are basically crowding out, banks lended more to the government and less to businesses and households .

Their national electric power supplier carries 5 billion in debt which means they have to jack up tariffs to finance cost recovery which makes electricity way more expensive for Ethiopians and it means higher input cost for businesses. Instead of GERD delivering cheap power for development, Ethiopians may pay more just to cover financial shortfalls.


Not only is their Public debt rising but their external debt to GDP-export ratio stands at 179.8%, they struggle to generate enough foreign currency to service this debt. Even if they export they will still not earn foreign exchange at the scale needed in the short term.

Ethiopia’s Public Debt Rises 25% in Five Years, Hits $68.9 Billion in 2024 - DNE Africa

Ethiopia's total public debt, encompassing both external and domestic obligations, surged 25.3% over five years to reach $68.9 billion by June 2024, according

africa.dailynewsegypt.com

So it really doesn't open up much fiscal space for Ethiopia to actually benefit from GERD even if they start exporting because the external and public debt is high. Which means fewer resources for health, education, social safety nets, or even other infrastructure projects.

They are going to grapple with a long economic fiscal strain which likely lead to more borrowing and that will make them debt spiral.

And ''Cult Economics" that Ethiopian journalist i shared yesterday used to describe Abyi Ahmed Economy is accurate even to explain GERD because it became less about rational cost–benefit analysis and more about national pride, political legitimacy, and symbolism. Citizens were pressured (salary deductions, bond purchases) to finance it, which can resemble a “forced patriotic economy” rather than a purely market-based project.

It’s as if peasants are compelled to surrender their resources and labor so that a king can build a grand palace, while their own living conditions steadily deteriorate.

Basically to keep it short "GERD absorbed so much financial and political capital that the country has little left to maneuver with."

Also export potential is overstated , because potential regional buyers have their own supply issues, political sensitivity and payment risk so revenues wont really materialize as fast as they will hope.

They are celebrating, but if they stopped to think and examined the economic realities, they will realize that it trapped them into mounting debt, costly electricity, and a shrinking economy with little fiscal space to benefit from GERD

 

[El Nino]

You are deluded if Ethiopia could be forced to leave. US went against the MoU to keep Ethiopia in Somalia. Multiple statements by the HOA special envoy confirm this. Statements at the UN too.

President of Somalia is not sovereign leader and cannot exercise symbolic sovereignty over the security interests of powerful countries. UNSC makes the final decision.

AU was interested in giving Somalia say over TCC but in the end they cannot authorize or fund AUSSOM.

Im interested, what were the statements?

FGS is currently at the whims of US and the rest of the west, however they won’t babysat the Xamar gov forever. They have cut funding and are scaling back their involvement in Somalia. One day which is soon, the FGS will have to stand on its own.

 

[Barkhadle1520]

Will the possible end of the AU Mission in Somalia open new opportunities for peace? – Amani Africa

amaniafrica-et.org

The minute AMISOM transformed to ATMIS, the writing was on the wall. 93 million USD has not been paid by the EU to the troop contributing countries since 2022. That amount is likely much more higher now as AUSSOM has not received any funding for 8 months. The gravy train is over.

Somali soldiers payment is theoretically much more secure, even though it still comes from mostly US. The problem is corruption, that severely limits the capabilit


Forgot about this, just shows if FGS/somalis played their card right, Ethiopia could be fended off.



There is nothing stopping FGS from limiting corruption and investing the budget efficiently. The mps get 5000 USD a month no tax for example, they don’t even need the half of that. I live in a country that ranks in the top 5 for HDI and the politicians don’t even get that much of money. This shows the mentality the elite have. They are mentally gaajo, only difference against the common folk is the missing physical part.

The tiny budget is a problem, but it doesn’t mean they can’t be more efficient and grab low lying fruits. Matter of fact, FGS management of key assets and help of ”allies” has been abysmal.

Somalia accuses Turkish firms Favori LLC, Al-Bayrak of breaching infrastructure contracts

Mogadishu (HOL) — The Somali government has accused Turkish firms Favori LLC and Al-Bayrak of breaching profit-sharing agreements critical to managing Mogadishu's key infrastructure, including Aden Adde International Airport and Mogadishu Port. These alleged breaches raise significant concerns...

hiiraan.com

Turkey has been an ally of FGS for 16 years now and there were signs of good first. However, due to FGS lacking a backbone, Turkey has benefited far more then Somalia. In exchange for the port and airport, they have trained thousands of soldiers and many of them have received more rigorous training in Turkey itself. Where is the result on the battlefield? The offensive against AS was successfull in the beginning due to macawiisleys and they are the ones now who are last line of defense for FGS. Waa yaab. A competent government would restructure these deals and benefit far, far more. Alas, the FGS is just malic

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Everything you said I agree sxp except

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[Barkhadle1520]

Basically to keep it short "GERD absorbed so much financial and political capital that the country has little left to maneuver with."

Also export potential is overstated , because potential regional buyers have their own supply issues, political sensitivity and payment risk so revenues wont really materialize as fast as they will hope.

They are celebrating, but if they stopped to think and examined the economic realities, they will realize that it trapped them into mounting debt, costly electricity, and a shrinking economy with little fiscal space to benefit from GERD

I take back what I said, @Zak12 was right we should just wait and see, 2025-2030 will be a very interesting years for both Somalia and Ethiopia

 

[Barkhadle1520]

Im interested, what were the statements?

FGS is currently at the whims of US and the rest of the west, however they won’t babysat the Xamar gov forever. They have cut funding and are scaling back their involvement in Somalia. One day which is soon, the FGS will have to stand on its own.

Yeah FGS politicians have also realized that this year, its like a ticking time bomb

 

[Midas]

One of thr main reasons im not too worried about ethiopia and ethiopian troops inside our country. Is that as soon as abiy declares war on eritrea all the milita groups will take that as their oppruntity to strike. In the tigray war you had ethiopia + eritrea +the fano militas and it still took 2 years.

 

[Barkhadle1520]

They're trying everything

 

[Itsnotthateasy]

Im interested, what were the statements?

FGS is currently at the whims of US and the rest of the west, however they won’t babysat the Xamar gov forever. They have cut funding and are scaling back their involvement in Somalia. One day which is soon, the FGS will have to stand on its own.

State building is not a joke and a very expensive and hands on process.

The west would have to had to really monitor every dollar spent and had their own people on the ground until a government could be built. Handing the process over to the corrupt entities involved in the dysfunction was the beginning and end. It never really started so can't really end.

 

[World]

GERD will not generate billions for Ethiopia.

Realistic annual output would be around 13kGWH, assuming 60 % is exported and 40 % used domestically:

Total domestic revenue:
13000GWh x 0.6 x $0.065/kWh(export) +
13000GWh x 0.4 x $0.0135/kWh(domestic)
= Less than $600 million. Before costs of course.

For a 135 million population, it’s not that significant. So why are you coming to our forum and calling us Somalis “zoos” and pushing your propaganda on us?

 

[El Nino]

Yeah FGS politicians have also realized that this year, its like a ticking time bomb

AAW talks about the changing world order a bit in this speech however he doesn’t talk about the possible ramifications of it that much.He also talks about how 4-5 billion dollars was sent from Xamar alone to Nairobi over 2-3 years and other countries in Africa and why foreigners continue to profit of from somalis.



Good speech, even gives possible pathways for success, number one being bad leadership and cultural issues.

 

[Barkhadle1520]

AAW talks about the changing world order a bit in this speech however he doesn’t talk about the possible ramifications of it that much.He also talks about how 4-5 billion dollars was sent from Xamar alone to Nairobi over 2-3 years and other countries in Africa and why foreigners continue to profit of from somalis.



Good speech, even gives possible pathways for success, number one being bad leadership and cultural issues.

I have a feeling this guy might be a good president