How Rwanda benefited from Somalia

[cow]

The reason why Rwanda today is peaceful and becoming more and more prosperous is because the west and America in particular did not want to intervene because of their disastrous stay in Somalia. Which then created a space for a clear winner to emerge who was Paul Kegame. Imagine if the west intervened then brokered a peace deal between the hutus and Paul Kegame, Rwanda today would be like Somalia.

For the first time in 30 years Somalia is about to have a clear winner (Farmaajo) When he wins and MM decide to get a few moriyaan in the capital i urge the somali government not to listen to any ceasefire or a brokered deal by the west. We need a clear winner to move on.


The below article says why America/west did not intervene in Rwanda

Why the US didn't intervene in the Rwandan genocide

After a disastrous peacekeeping mission in Somalia, the US vowed to stay away from conflicts it didn't understand.

www.csmonitor.com

he Clinton administration and Congress watched the unfolding events in Rwanda in April 1994 in a kind of stupefied horror.

The US had just pulled American troops out of a disastrous peacekeeping mission in Somalia – later made famous in the book "Black Hawk Down" – the year before. It had vowed never to return to a conflict it couldn't understand, between clans and tribes it didn't know, in a country where the US had no national interests.

 

[Surplus]

Weird way of looking at things, it’s not a sure thing at all that Rwanda is what it is today solely because of the genocide. It’s a small country and could have easily become another stable Burundi, Uganda, Kenya etc.

what does “clear winner” even mean? Faarmajo is already the pm. Somalia is not in a civil war like Rwanda in 92.

 

[Odayga_Jabuuti]

Somalia was meant to become a failed state ever since Siad Barre decided to destroy our democracy.
From 1969 to 1991, the country was going downhill, by 1977 the country was in an economic crisis that led to the civil war 14 years later.

 

[wheel]

Strange way of looking at things. USA shifting to a non interventionist stance after the Somalia debacle was terrible for Rwanda because the lack of intervention from the western powers resulted in hundreds of thousands of people being slaughtered. And i dont think USA intervening would have caused Kagame's faction to lose, if anything there would probably be some power sharing deal.

 

[DR OSMAN]

Somalia was meant to become a failed state ever since Siad Barre decided to destroy our democracy.
From 1969 to 1991, the country was going downhill, by 1977 the country was in an economic crisis that led to the civil war 14 years later.

Siyad followed in his uncle tradition to hand us another failed state after he studied what nuur mujahid did to adal sultanate, the marehan are responsible for destroying the last known state of Somalis and sent us into 200 year dark age after adall fall to oromo hordes and we didn't rise up untill the Majerten kingdom Arose.

They did the same in 91 and put us in another dark age for 30 years and guess what the same oromo are now migrating like they did after the fall of adal sultanate into North Somalia.

Wat u expect of farmajo he looks up to nuur mujahid n siyad so obviously he will follow in their tradition of handing us a collapsed state and risking a civil war in the capital all over 4 year weak sfg seat and then waiting for the oromo hordes to slowly begin their migration again like they did in the past. Marehan want Somalis to share their pain of losing so many marehan to oromos who are now assimilated into oromia, they're only goal is to pass this pain on to all Somalis. Why u think Farmajo is friendly with Abi Ahmed, he knows there is heaps of lost marehan who were conquered by oromo.

I urge Somalis to wake up, these b22n are dangerous, stop repeating history for goodness sake.

 

[Clllam]

Rwanda has a good president, a guy who actually dealt fairly with the hutus and developed the country. If somalis ever get such a leader, then things would be a lot more different, but sadly everyone is working for their qabil

 

[DR OSMAN]

Somalia was meant to become a failed state ever since Siad Barre decided to destroy our democracy.
From 1969 to 1991, the country was going downhill, by 1977 the country was in an economic crisis that led to the civil war 14 years later.

Even if we Somalis dont like each other lets make a pact to keep marehan out of power, 2 failed states is enuff evidence for u that this clan only leads to failure.

 

[Waaqmasho]

Somalia was meant to become a failed state ever since Siad Barre decided to destroy our democracy.
From 1969 to 1991, the country was going downhill, by 1977 the country was in an economic crisis that led to the civil war 14 years later.

There was a no democracy, everyone knows how rigged the elections were in favour of certain clans. It's why waqooyi declared independence. The south clans were also angry. The tensions were high in Mogadishu and it could have spiraled into civil war. The coup came at a critical time and it held together for 20 years the cracks that already appeared. But it was only band aid, a temporary solution. Any historian worth his salt knows that.

So no somalia was meant to become a failed state because guess what? There was no equitable representation. This 4.5 is the best form of representation that somalia ever got. Anything that's not 4.5 was destined to fail. Because certain clans got more representation than they deserved and others got less.

 

[DR OSMAN]

There was a no democracy, everyone knows how rigged the elections were in favour of certain clans. It's why waqooyi declared independence. The south clans were also angry. The tensions were high in Mogadishu and it could have spiraled into civil war. The coup came at a critical time and it held together for 20 years the cracks that already appeared. But it was only band aid, a temporary solution. Any historian worth his salt knows that.

So no somalia was meant to become a failed state because guess what? There was no equitable representation. This 4.5 is the best form of representation that somalia ever got. Anything that's not 4.5 was destined to fail. Because certain clans got more representation than they deserved and others got less.

Nacala futadada ku yaale, u lying piece of b22n. 4.5 is empowering langaabs only who don't have the muscle in the nation to change shit. Murusade having same seats as abgaal is fair to you? or marehan having more seats then majerten when u only live in gedo n abudwaq. Wat sort of bullshit is 4.5. There is no HAWIYE, NO DAROD NO DIR. Everyone operates as separate clans. The best system would be to categorize somali clans as

Group A Clans. MJ n Abgaal. Assign same quota
Group B Clans. HG, Marehan, Dhulos, Isaaq, Rahanwayn, Ogaden. Assign same quota
Group C Clans. Hawadle, Murusade, Leelkase, Warsangeli. Assign same quota
Group D Clans. Gaaljacel, Dashishe, Awrtable, Benadiri, Arab Salax, Bimaal, Sheikhaal. Assign same quota

This is a far more realistic power sharing untill a proper census is done. As PL we should've rejected ARTA power-sharing model and presented the 'real model' of sub clan power sharing not tribal sharing.

If power was shared like that, that's exactly the true set up of Somalia clan power dynamics or it's very close to it. 4.5 just lumps darod, hawiye, dir, digil iyo mirifle, and minorities when there is no such thing on the ground.

This 4.5 disaster was done merely by Ismacil Geele to assign more power to HAG/DIR thru irirism. I mean Issa who don't even have a tuulo but live half of zaylac has like 10 seats in the parliament of Somalia, that was his agenda only. We must scrap 4.5 not act stupid and say it's the best system.

 

[reer]

This 4.5 disaster was done merely by Ismacil Geele to assign more power to HAG/DIR thru irirism.

@Waaqmasho @cow this is written in the 1997 cairo peace conference. kkk check out the member list. abdullahi yusuf is on there.

https://peacemaker.un.org/sites/peacemaker.un.org/files/SO_971222_CairoDeclaration.pdf

 

[cow]

This is not about Siyad Barre, infact siyad barre postponed a somali civil war from taking place in 1969. the abdirashid sharmaake government of the 1960's was the most corrupt government in somali history it would make hassan sheikh seem like a saint in comparison.

Do you know that during the so called elections in 1960's that a single village called walanweeyn registered more votes then the whole of British somaliland? to this day a lot of the older isaaq folks refer southern somalis as "walanweyn"

abdirasheed sharmaake made up bogus votes in places like walanweyne and his government was hated by the somalis. when siyad barre done a peaceful bloodless coup majority of the somali people celeberated.

Anyway back to the topic. to have a clear winner is a must. Germany in 1945 had to do a unconditional surrender. During the English civil war the parliament won and king lost. Every single war has to have a clear winner for that chapter to close otherwise it will drag on. Rwanda was lucky it solved it's own problems through the barrel of the gun like every other country on earth. Paul Kegame won the hutus lost. the hutus are no longer destabilising Rwanda nor can they threathen Paul's government because he utterly defeated them. Same way germany cannot threaten Russia or west Europe.

Japan also had to sign a unconditional surrender or america said they would drop nuclear bombs on every single japanese city. after they saw hiroshima and nagasaki they had no choice but the sign it.

Somalia needs a clear winner and unconditional surrender from the other sides. so far Farmaajo is emerging as the clear winner.

 

[DR OSMAN]

@reer PL was created because of the cairo conference electing abgal/hg to president/pm and proposing centralism. The name abdillahi yusuf is there but not his signature, just more typical hag corruption.

PL boycotted the Cairo conference and formed PL and federalism due to it. We shud of rejected the CARTA 4.5 garbage also when in Embagathi Kenya or simply walk out from the conference all together. Group A B C D clan is how the true clan power structure is in Somalia.

 

[reer]

@reer PL was created because of the cairo conference electing abgal/hg to president/pm and proposing centralism. The name abdillahi yusuf is there but not his signature, just more typical hag corruption.

PL boycotted the Cairo conference and formed PL and federalism due to it. We shud of rejected the CARTA 4.5 garbage also when in Embagathi Kenya or simply walk out from the conference all together. Group A B C D clan is how the true clan power structure is in Somalia.

federalism was agreed in 2002. during abdiqasim era. by multiple clan jabhads. your faan is baseless.

Article 1
Federalism

1) To create federal governance structures for Somalia, embodied in a Charter or Constitution, which are inclusive, representative, and acceptable to all the parties
2) To endorse the principle of decentralization as an integral part of Somalia's governance structures
3) To ensure the rights, representation and protection of all Somali individuals and groups

https://peacemaker.un.org/sites/pea...ndStructuresSomaliaNationalReconciliation.pdf

 

[En_Sabah Nur]

A clear winner being protected by foreign troops. The biggest mistake baadbaado qaran made was not arresting the bastard boon squatting in villa Somalia in April.

 

[DR OSMAN]

federalism was agreed in 2002. during abdiqasim era. by multiple clan jabhads. your faan is baseless.


https://peacemaker.un.org/sites/pea...ndStructuresSomaliaNationalReconciliation.pdf

Stop lying about history, abdiqasim salat govt didn't leave nairobi hotels, he begged cayr moryans to welcome him in hamar they said screw u we want to keep on looting. This was the precursor why abdillahi yusuf went to tigray to bring him big weapons becuz somalia was under embargo. U not fooling me. It was abdillahi yusuf who established the TFG a proper federal government which became the SFG not 'TNG' a centralized federalism which is what Abdiqasim was running around with. He even called SL/PL 'balaayo lands' he didn't believe in federalism.

 

[DR OSMAN]

I would sub-divide Somali clan 280 MPS in the following power-sharing method based on the reality on the ground. Tribe like Darod, Hawiye, Dir, Digil are just 'traditions' it's not political or on the ground reality, the reality on the ground is sub-clan politics

Group A Clans quota will be 40 seats each
Group B Clans quota will be 20 seats each
Group C Clans quota will be 10 seats each
Group D Clans quota will be 5 seats each

Group A Clans. MJ n Abgaal. Assign same quota
Group B Clans. HG, Marehan, Dhulos, Isaaq, Rahanwayn, Ogaden. Assign same quota
Group C Clans. Hawadle, Murusade, Leelkase, Warsangeli. Assign same quota
Group D Clans. Gaaljacel, Dashishe, Awrtable, Benadiri, Arab Salax, Bimaal, Sheikhaal. Assign same quota

That's a total of 80 MPS for MJ and Abgal.
Group B clans will share 120 MPS between 6 clans.
Group C clans will share 40 seats between 4 clans.
Group D clans will share 40 Seats between 7 clans.

That's a total of 280 MPS.

To secure power Group A will need an alliance with 'Group B' as that chamber has 120 seats between them. It will mean to win an election Group A will need to find as many alliances in Group B clans who will be the election deciding chamber. If Group B clans become deadlock, Group C clans become paramount and then finally Group D if the election becomes real tight.

I wish I was old enough to participate in Embagathi and lead the Majerten, I would convince all the clans this the closest to reality power sharing model we can accept untill a census is completed.

 

[cow]

I would sub-divide Somali clan 280 MPS in the following power-sharing method based on the reality on the ground. Tribe like Darod, Hawiye, Dir, Digil are just 'traditions' it's not political or on the ground reality, the reality on the ground is sub-clan politics

Group A Clans quota will be 40 seats each
Group B Clans quota will be 20 seats each
Group C Clans quota will be 10 seats each
Group D Clans quota will be 5 seats each

Group A Clans. MJ n Abgaal. Assign same quota
Group B Clans. HG, Marehan, Dhulos, Isaaq, Rahanwayn, Ogaden. Assign same quota
Group C Clans. Hawadle, Murusade, Leelkase, Warsangeli. Assign same quota
Group D Clans. Gaaljacel, Dashishe, Awrtable, Benadiri, Arab Salax, Bimaal, Sheikhaal. Assign same quota

That's a total of 80 MPS for MJ and Abgal.
Group B clans will share 120 MPS between 6 clans.
Group C clans will share 40 seats between 4 clans.
Group D clans will share 40 Seats between 7 clans.

That's a total of 280 MPS.

To secure power Group A will need an alliance with 'Group B' as that chamber has 120 seats between them. It will mean to win an election Group A will need to find as many alliances in Group B clans who will be the election deciding chamber. If Group B clans become deadlock, Group C clans become paramount and then finally Group D if the election becomes real tight.

I wish I was old enough to participate in Embagathi and lead the Majerten, I would convince all the clans this the closest to reality power sharing model we can accept untill a census is completed.

 

[DR OSMAN]

Harti portion will be 40 seat MJ, 10 Seats Warsangeli, 20 seats Dhulbahante, 5 seats dashishe. From a chamber of 280 seats, that's still 75 Mps and only 26% of the chamber, when in fact PL/SSC/Makhir is 30% of Somalia land mass. This isn't including our Lower Jubba populations. To win Parliament u need 141 MPS to. Even with the HARTI portion we only 25%.

Hiiraab portion with Abgal having 40 and HG having 20, that's 60 MPS. Hirab iyo Harti are not the same size but in the mean-time I wud accept this power-sharing untill a real census is done. The liklihood of Hiraab n Harti allying with each other is minimal, so those clans from Group B and C and D will be fought over heavily and can pass over their votes for positions in the government.

 

[Kanan]

There was a no democracy, everyone knows how rigged the elections were in favour of certain clans. It's why waqooyi declared independence. The south clans were also angry. The tensions were high in Mogadishu and it could have spiraled into civil war. The coup came at a critical time and it held together for 20 years the cracks that already appeared. But it was only band aid, a temporary solution. Any historian worth his salt knows that.

So no somalia was meant to become a failed state because guess what? There was no equitable representation. This 4.5 is the best form of representation that somalia ever got. Anything that's not 4.5 was destined to fail. Because certain clans got more representation than they deserved and others got less.

That's a cop out. With all Somali government shortcomings there was no social unrest or human right violation of the calibre seen in the late 70s & 80s. Somalia had it problems like any new born democracy. It can't be destained to fail when it didn't get the appourtunity.


Rigging elections is tame compared to what followed during Kacan reign.

 

[DR OSMAN]

I only wish DR Osman was selected by Majerten to lead them in Embagathi. We would rock up with our politics stablized, power-sharing model decided. We would tell Somalis we won't accept anything below then this clan power sharing model.