I don’t think HG has a chance. They gotta hide behind a Abgaal and play the hiraab card.Hawiye will never chose Majerteen as President as they know, he will bring real federal government which is death sentence to Hawiye, who are mostly Dowlad ku nool. Marehan is prime candidate because they are stateless and have no appetite to push for federal government.
The ogadens will be the other option for Hawiye, especially after they seen how docile PM Hamza is.
Abgaal won't touch this seat for at least next three terms, which leaves HG and Murusade as viable options
Next Hawiye president is gonna be Murusade.