Foreign Policy Research Institute & Former Amb to Somalia call for Somalilands Recognition

[Bernie Madoff]

That's not the point either. UNHCR has no clan bias, they're gaalo who couldn't give a shit about which shit tuulo is bigger than the other. But Shepard has done everything in his power to misrepresent, mislead and miss represent UNHCR for his Pan Darood agenda.

True if you see someone saying things like this than im sure you take anything he says with a grain of SALT

 

[Gantaal97]

GUUL Somaliland

 

[Gantaal97]

These former ambassadors are just mad they never got their way with farmaajo, writing an op ed for breaking up somalia is just a last f*ck you.

If he were serious he would've wrote a serious proposal. Leaving out the fact that half of somaliland's claimed territory is disputed is not a small oversight. And him already talking about Ethiopia disintegrating up and its somali region being able to choose between Somaliland and Somalia is delusional, because it highly unlikely county would disintegrate & the idea they would join somaliland is beyond delusional.

1. Ogaden clan have strong presence in Somalia already.
2. Who joins an unrecognised state where half its territory is disputed and conflict is certain?
3. Somalia has way bigger upside in terms of economic potential.
4. If they want to join Somaliland, they could just do that by joining Somalia

DDS or K5 is multiclan region and OGs don't make up the majority

Economically DDS or K5 for centuries was connected with modern day territory Somaliland with Berbera-Hargeisa-Wajaale corridor being the economic gate way or the breathing point for the landlocked region so it makes sense for K5 to join up with Somaliland to save its economy but not with Somalia which would be a expensive and waste for the region development so there's only two options either DDS/K5 be independent nation or join up with Somaliland currently the popular one is independent option.

 

[FBIsomalia]

No matter you guys dream from ictraaf, it will not happen without xamar blessing .

 

[reer]

DDS or K5 is multiclan region and OGs don't make up the majority

Economically DDS or K5 for centuries was connected with modern day territory Somaliland with Berbera-Hargeisa-Wajaale corridor being the economic gate way or the breathing point for the landlocked region so it makes sense for K5 to join up with Somaliland to save its economy but not with Somalia which would be a expensive and waste for the region development so there's only two options either DDS/K5 be independent nation or join up with Somaliland currently the popular one is independent option.

join unrecognized african craphole. jeegaanstani ramblings.

 

[Periplus]

DDS or K5 is multiclan region and OGs don't make up the majority

Economically DDS or K5 for centuries was connected with modern day territory Somaliland with Berbera-Hargeisa-Wajaale corridor being the economic gate way or the breathing point for the landlocked region so it makes sense for K5 to join up with Somaliland to save its economy but not with Somalia which would be a expensive and waste for the region development so there's only two options either DDS/K5 be independent nation or join up with Somaliland currently the popular one is independent option.

If K5 joins SL then the argument of SL being the successor state to the State of Somaliland is BS.

If you start there, then you might as well let the SSC join Somalia.

 

[Gantaal97]

If K5 joins SL then the argument of SL being the successor state to the State of Somaliland is BS.

If you start there, then you might as well let the SSC join Somalia.

What I just stated was hypothetical scenario as what's best for K5 and ofc an independent DDS is good for both communities on the border but joining Somalia is no no unless SL decides to rejoin

 

[Gantaal97]

join unrecognized african craphole. jeegaanstani ramblings.

That crabhole is what feeds reer K5 ya walwaweyn

 

[0117]

That's not the point either. UNHCR has no clan bias, they're gaalo who couldn't give a shit about which shit tuulo is bigger than the other. But Shepard has done everything in his power to misrepresent, mislead and miss represent UNHCR for his Pan Darood agenda.

Bias?

You think these "findings" have no Somalian hands on it

 

[Sa7rawy]

Schwartz was ambassador for 1 year -- that definitely makes him an expert alright.

The man should go get a life....he hasn't moved on from 2016/2017?

I guess his one year rotation was the highlight of his mediocre career.

They don't exactly send their best and brightest to Somalia -- the current US Ambassador is a 4' Asian man!

 

[repo]

DDS or K5 is multiclan region and OGs don't make up the majority

Economically DDS or K5 for centuries was connected with modern day territory Somaliland with Berbera-Hargeisa-Wajaale corridor being the economic gate way or the breathing point for the landlocked region so it makes sense for K5 to join up with Somaliland to save its economy but not with Somalia which would be a expensive and waste for the region development so there's only two options either DDS/K5 be independent nation or join up with Somaliland currently the popular one is independent option.

Yeah, that will be the discussion in Jigjiga. Lets join an unrecognized 4th world oligopolistic paper leviathan peaceocracy. That's right, I read the paper.

 

[ZodiaK]

 

[Thugnificent]

https://www.fpri.org/article/2021/11/the-african-union-should-resolve-somalilands-status/

The same man who wrote this article. He deffo gave up on farmaajo now
View attachment 206261

How long would it take before somalia and Somaliland come to a agreement(union/secession/etc.)? I bet land values will jump 10/20% in hargeysa.

 

[Duchess]

50% of the Isaaq population in Somalia live in districts 1 (Hargaysa) & 2 (Gabiley), together Maroodijeex. This half of Isaaq has a fertility rate 43% lower than that of Sool, and 40% lower than that of Sanaag.

By my calculations, Isaaq will fall below 50% of the population of British Somaliland by 2029, or about 7 years from now.



View attachment 206280

I am sure the United States and EU know this fact since they fund these surveys.
No one is going to recognize an area where the majority ethnic group's share of the population is declining by ~1.2% per year.

The world rejoices at the thought.

 

[Wir]

All the kacaan orphans came here to cry

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

I seen you parade this stats all the time. Sanaag is 50/50 sonthey cancel eachothers out. This leaves Sool region. Sool region has 300k people with 8% growth rate, Burco district (not Togdheer) has 450k people with 6% growth rate.

You like to crunch numbers a lot bit when will Sool region catch up to Burco district let alone Hargeisa? This is why no body takes you seriously, you crunch numbers into inconclusive grandiose conclusion that supports your theory. You conveniently left out that of the 1.3 million non Isaaq in Somaliland almost half of them are Gudabursi In Awdal who have similar growth rates to Isaaq regions?




Isaaq are 2 million, non Isaaq are 1.3 million.

Do you honestly believe non Isaaq will outbreed Isaaq by 700k in 7 years?


Anyway UNHCR conducts an estimation every 10 years, the next estimation is going to be released in 2025 max, looking forward to see this theory blow up on your face again.



Master Darood propagandist. Your sole contributions to Somaliland discussions ard cooked up numbers warning of Isaaq demise lol.

Isaaq were 2.1 million or 61% of the population of Woqoyie in 2014. Almost 8 years have passed since 2014, and 7 years remain until 2029. This is a total of 15 years, more than long for massive demographic shifts to take place.

Why is it so hard to believe that in the 15 years between 2014 and 2029 the Isaaq decline from 61% to 50%, especially considering the vast difference in fertility between Harti and Isaaq?

The Gadabursi have slightly lower fertility than the Isaaq, 5.3 vs 5.6, but their population is growing faster. You can see this when you compare the 2005-2014 growth rates. The only explanation Incan come up with is that Gadabursi is growing faster than Isaaq because Ethiopian Gadabursi are urbanizing in Borama district.

I have run these numbers quite a few times, and it is betond any doubt that the Isaaq share of Woqoyie is in decline. You can dispute the speed of the decline, but not whether a decline is taking place.

 

[FBIsomalia]

Isaaq were 2.1 million or 61% of the population of Woqoyie in 2014. Almost 8 years have passed since 2014, and 7 years remain until 2029. This is a total of 15 years, more than long for massive demographic shifts to take place.

Why is it so hard to believe that in the 15 years between 2014 and 2029 the Isaaq decline from 61% to 50%, especially considering the vast difference in fertility between Harti and Isaaq?

The Gadabursi have slightly lower fertility than the Isaaq, 5.3 vs 5.6, but their population is growing faster. You can see this when you compare the 2005-2014 growth rates. The only explanation Incan come up with is that Gadabursi is growing faster than Isaaq because Ethiopian Gadabursi are urbanizing in Borama district.

I have run these numbers quite a few times, and it is betond any doubt that the Isaaq share of Woqoyie is in decline. You can dispute the speed of the decline, but not whether a decline is taking place.

Your answer, why jeegaan numbers decline? is because of qaat .

 

[Wir]

50% of the Isaaq population in Somalia live in districts 1 (Hargaysa) & 2 (Gabiley), together Maroodijeex. This half of Isaaq has a fertility rate 43% lower than that of Sool, and 40% lower than that of Sanaag.

By my calculations, Isaaq will fall below 50% of the population of British Somaliland by 2029, or about 7 years from now.



View attachment 206280

I am sure the United States and EU know this fact since they fund these surveys.
No one is going to recognize an area where the majority ethnic group's share of the population is declining by ~1.2% per year.

Darood largest town in Somaliland is Lascanood and it is 20% smaller than Wajaale. In Wajaale you only find 1 sub sub clan of Sacad Muuse of the Habar awal.
8.16 Sqkm > 6.63 Sqkm

Gabiley is another town that has 1 sub sub clan of sacad muuse of the habar awal and its larger then all remaining Darood towns worthy of mention in Somaliland combined, buhoodle+badhan+Las Qoray.

5.6 Sqkm > 5.08 Sqkm

This is simple comparison mate. We're comparing urban centers of Sub clans of the Sacad Muse in 1 district of Somaliland to the urban centers of Darood in all if Somaliland, and Darood still can't compete. There are more Sacad Muuse in Gabiley district alone than all darood in Somaliland. Your numbers in Somaliland are 300-400k of the 5.5-6 million population

 

[Kanan]

Isaaq were 2.1 million or 61% of the population of Woqoyie in 2014. Almost 8 years have passed since 2014, and 7 years remain until 2029. This is a total of 15 years, more than long for massive demographic shifts to take place.

Why is it so hard to believe that in the 15 years between 2014 and 2029 the Isaaq decline from 61% to 50%, especially considering the vast difference in fertility between Harti and Isaaq?

The Gadabursi have slightly lower fertility than the Isaaq, 5.3 vs 5.6, but their population is growing faster. You can see this when you compare the 2005-2014 growth rates. The only explanation Incan come up with is that Gadabursi is growing faster than Isaaq because Ethiopian Gadabursi are urbanizing in Borama district.

I have run these numbers quite a few times, and it is betond any doubt that the Isaaq share of Woqoyie is in decline. You can dispute the speed of the decline, but not whether a decline is taking place.

Don't backtrack now. You said Isaaq will lose their absolute majority by 2029. Stick to your words. In 2025 the difference between Isaaq and non Isaaq should be less than 200k. Don't backtrack when the numbers come up.






That's an inconclusive conclusion depending on the difference between 2005 - 2014 stats only. Trend could reverse at any point especially with the development of Berbera Corridor expect large boost for Berbera & Hargeisa districts, regions with the "lowest fertility rate" You'll eat your own words and realize how foolish of you to blast that coloured map everywhere.

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

Don't backtrack now. You said Isaaq will lose their absolute majority by 2029. Stick to your words. In 2025 the difference between Isaaq and non Isaaq should be less than 200k. Don't backtrack when the numbers come up.






That's an inconclusive conclusion depending on the difference between 2005 - 2014 stats only. Trend could reverse at any point especially with the development of Berbera Corridor expect large boost for Berbera & Hargeisa districts, regions with the "lowest fertility rate" You'll eat your own words and realize how foolish of you to blast that coloured map everywhere.

You don't have to trust me, you can simply run the numbers yourself. Going by the population growth rate of 2005-2014, Isaaq are under 50% of the population in 2029. All I'm doing is simply projecting trends forward.

Demographic transitions Are irreversible. It is probably impossible for a population that has fallen under 5 children per woman to ever again achieve a TFR of 7.5 or 8. The only direction is downwards once you begin the transition.

The Isaaq and Gadabursi began the transition earlier than the rest of Somalia. Already in 2006 their fertility was declining, while as of 2020 Dhulbahante and Warsangeli have not even began to lower their fertility.