Foreign Policy Research Institute & Former Amb to Somalia call for Somalilands Recognition

You don't have to trust me, you can simply run the numbers yourself. Going by the population growth rate of 2005-2014, Isaaq are under 50% of the population in 2029. All I'm doing is simply projecting trends forward.

Demographic transitions Are irreversible. It is probably impossible for a population that has fallen under 5 children per woman to ever again achieve a TFR of 7.5 or 8. The only direction is downwards once you begin the transition.

The Isaaq and Gadabursi began the transition earlier than the rest of Somalia. Already in 2006 their fertility was declining, while as of 2020 Dhulbahante and Warsangeli have not even began to lower their fertility.

tfr-2006-png.193609

That's why no body takes you seriously you shifted the argument to Northwest (Somaliland) vs Northeast (Puntland) when we're talking about Isaaq vs Harti growth rates within Somaliland (Northwest)


There is no difference between 5.9 and 6.2 but that's your way to wiggle out of your own fallacy. The discussion was about Isaaq & Harti regions. You said Hargiesa have low fertility rates at about 5% and Sool/Sanaag have about 8% growth rate.



Here is the problem. Your theory assumes the other half of Isaaq don't also have similar growth rates, half of Sanaag is inhabitated by Isaaq so they cancel the Harti out in the region. Burco district has 6% growth rate which is close to Sool region and a much higher base population.


Can Sool with a slightly higher growth rate differential of 2% outnumber the much higher base population of Burco district? Yes but it would take approximately 25 years.



That would mean for the 300k Harti in Sool region (actually 270k when you subtract Caynaba but for sake of argument we'll count it for Harti) to catch up with Burco district it means you will have to wait 25 years.


I'm not even talking about Oodweyn, Shiekh, Berbera, Gabiely or the 1 million inhabitants of Hargeisa district.

Considering all variables remain unchanged, it will take Harti in Somaliland 25 years (cirka 2040) to catch up with the population of Burco district.


See how I shifted the discussion to a comparison between Burco district and Sool region. By your own methodology your theory flopped. Let's see how you'll talk your way out of this one.


:hemad:
 
That's why no body takes you seriously you shifted the argument to Northwest (Somaliland) vs Northeast (Puntland) when we're talking about Isaaq vs Harti growth rates within Somaliland (Northwest)


There is no difference between 5.9 and 6.2 but that's your way to wiggle out of your own fallacy. The discussion was about Isaaq & Harti regions. You said Hargiesa have low fertility rates at about 5% and Sool/Sanaag have about 8% growth rate.



Here is the problem. Your theory assumes the other half of Isaaq don't also have similar growth rates, half of Sanaag is inhabitated by Isaaq so they cancel the Harti out in the region. Burco district has 6% growth rate which is close to Sool region and a much higher base population.


Can Sool with a slightly higher growth rate differential of 2% outnumber the much higher base population of Burco district? Yes but it would take approximately 25 years.



That would mean for the 300k Harti in Sool region (actually 270k when you subtract Caynaba but for sake of argument we'll count it for Harti) to catch up with Burco district it means you will have to wait 25 years.


I'm not even talking about Oodweyn, Shiekh, Berbera, Gabiely or the 1 million inhabitants of Hargeisa district.

Considering all variables remain unchanged, it will take Harti in Somaliland 25 years (cirka 2040) to catch up with the population of Burco district.


See how I shifted the discussion to a comparison between Burco district and Sool region. By your own methodology your theory flopped. Let's see how you'll talk your way out of this one.


:hemad:
Sool is at atleast 400K nowadays mate and Caynaba itself isn’t 100% Isaaq.
 
Last edited:

Thegoodshepherd

Galkacyo iyo Calula dhexdood
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That's why no body takes you seriously you shifted the argument to Northwest (Somaliland) vs Northeast (Puntland) when we're talking about Isaaq vs Harti growth rates within Somaliland (Northwest)


There is no difference between 5.9 and 6.2 but that's your way to wiggle out of your own fallacy. The discussion was about Isaaq & Harti regions. You said Hargiesa have low fertility rates at about 5% and Sool/Sanaag have about 8% growth rate.



Here is the problem. Your theory assumes the other half of Isaaq don't also have similar growth rates, half of Sanaag is inhabitated by Isaaq so they cancel the Harti out in the region. Burco district has 6% growth rate which is close to Sool region and a much higher base population.


Can Sool with a slightly higher growth rate differential of 2% outnumber the much higher base population of Burco district? Yes but it would take approximately 25 years.



That would mean for the 300k Harti in Sool region (actually 270k when you subtract Caynaba but for sake of argument we'll count it for Harti) to catch up with Burco district it means you will have to wait 25 years.


I'm not even talking about Oodweyn, Shiekh, Berbera, Gabiely or the 1 million inhabitants of Hargeisa district.

Considering all variables remain unchanged, it will take Harti in Somaliland 25 years (cirka 2040) to catch up with the population of Burco district.


See how I shifted the discussion to a comparison between Burco district and Sool region. By your own methodology your theory flopped. Let's see how you'll talk your way out of this one.


:hemad:

Fertility rates are not growth rates you retard, nor are they measured in percentages!

I just realized you have no idea what I’m even talking about. Holy shit what a waste of time!
 
Fertility rates are not growth rates you retard, nor are they measured in percentages!

I just realized you have no idea what I’m even talking about. Holy shit what a waste of time!

Of course I do. You used to the lowest Isaaq region in fertility rates as a base for your argument, I used the highest Isaaq regions in fertility rates to debunk your argument and limited the scope into Burco vs Sool.



Now that you made a fool of yourself you're throwing tantrum and shifting the topic to semantics. No amount of misrepresentation is going to change the fact half of Isaaq have high fertility rates comparable to Harti and a massive starting base population that dwarfs the later.


You can continue jamming maps about Isaaq fertility rates though.



:umad:
 
Sool is at atleast 400K nowadays mate and Caynaba itself isn’t 100% Isaaq.

We're talking about 2014 estimate. Sool region had a population of 330k, 60k of which is in Caynaba district. Going by 2017 elections there was 30k registered vote in Caynaba district divided on 29 villages. Aside from Gumys where else does Dhulbahante have villages of thier own in Caynaba district and how much do they number 500, 1k or 3k? In the grand scheme of things they're few and cancelled out with Isaaq in Xudun which I also awarded fully to Harti. Even counted Caynaba district for Harti to show the malicious intent of Shepard.


You missed the forest for the trees.
 
I think it's inevitable that Somaliland will get recognised as independent eventually, not least because Sudan and Ethiopia never experienced state collapse yet both were forced to accept the secession of a part of their respective territories.

Having said that what makes Somaliland distinct from Somalia in terms of people? Also is the SL people truly one cohesive bloc or is the truth that instead they are nothing more than a collection of clans and sub clans
 

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