FGS changing of the constitution process document leaked

[GaradShabeel]

In what way has it taken longer? Everything has been remarkably on schedule. Sure there was pressure for talks with PL but HSM cleverly outplayed Deni by inviting PL stakeholders to his opposition talks. Since then Deni has effectively said there’s no agreement and no change of completing the constitution without SL. And SL is not coming so the IC will give up or have given up on finding agreement with Deni.

One thing I’ll add is Deni has rejected agreements signed by PL in the past like election agreement, national security architecture and natural resources agreement. This has harmed his argument that PL itself is against the agreements HSM is pushing for as HSM says he and Farmaajo already signed them with Gaas.

Another thing I have to pick up on is there’s not going to be any separate deal with PL. HSM has made this his read line. PL will likely be allowed to not take part but they’ll also lose the benefits that come with the FGS, whether that’s for example oil production in the South, tax revenue from the new centralised revenue office, future projects funded by FGS loans etc. I can see a quick collapse from PL when the FGS has control of the South and is able to fund states in a big way.

I think it's a little repetitive now, but I meant while the timeline of the NCC meetings/agreements have been done as FGS expected, the IC pushback on HSM original plan of sidestepping PL have made FGS take another approach. IC wanted direct talks, but HSM has opted for other PL 'stakeholders' for now (not really what I would call it). But IC have acknowledged it, so I guess some boost to HSM's gov't.

I agree that SL will not be part of this constitution and was never part of the plan either by IC given SL's quest of secession unlike other FMS. But IC still expects that both sides, PL and FGS, loosen on their stances and make some concession. HSM seem steadfast in not doing it outside of the framework of NCC/not involving other FMS. Deni seem to be holding on to his take that a constitution without PL, won't be accepted. We'll see how this will develop.

The so called benefits are things that will not happen now, maybe with the exception of international aid. Oil production, if found, will take years to produce. Tax revenue, most of the FMS can't even stay afloat by themselves, so nothing PL is missing out now. FGS loans, if debt relief happens and HSM seek new loans, it will be based on FGS finances. They seem to be experiencing lower revenue for some time now and with Banaadir soon going to be seeking to get a bigger share of their revenue, FGS need to increase their budget, along with other conditions to get access to large loans. With IC seeking to cut all aid in a few years and the FMS currently draining FGS resources, they'll have to immediately find new ways to support themselves and so forth.

There're many things in the way for your given examples, which in itself will also take time. My hypothesis is that PL/FGS will sort out their differences very soon before all mentioned things occurs.

 

[bidenkulaha]

I think it's a little repetitive now, but I meant while the timeline of the NCC meetings/agreements have been done as FGS expected, the IC pushback on HSM original plan of sidestepping PL have made FGS take another approach. IC wanted direct talks, but HSM has opted for other PL 'stakeholders' for now (not really what I would call it). But IC have acknowledged it, so I guess some boost to HSM's gov't.

I agree that SL will not be part of this constitution and was never part of the plan either by IC given SL's quest of secession unlike other FMS. But IC still expects that both sides, PL and FGS, loosen on their stances and make some concession. HSM seem steadfast in not doing it outside of the framework of NCC/not involving other FMS. Deni seem to be holding on to his take that a constitution without PL, won't be accepted. We'll see how this may develop.

The so called benefits are things that will not happen now, maybe with the exception of withdrawing international aid. Oil production, if found, will take years to produce. Tax revenue, most of the FMS can't even stay afloat by themselves, so nothing PL is missing out now. FGS loans, if debt relief happens and HSM seek new loans, it will be based on FGS finances. They seem to be experiencing lower revenue for some time now and with Banaadir soon going to be seeking to get a bigger share of their revenue, FGS need to increase their budget, along with other conditions to get access to large loans. With IC seeking to cut all aid in a few years and the FMS currently draining FGS resources, they'll have to immediately find new ways to support themselves and so forth.

There're many things in the way for your given examples, which in itself will also take time. My hypothesis is that PL/FGS will sort out their differences very soon before all mentioned things occurs.

FGS revenue has passed $30 million this month, a new record.

Sure there’s problems but with growth expected in Xamar to start hitting more than 5% and improved security leading to a construction boom I doubt it’ll be a problem for much longer.

Also yes IC will cut aid, which is more harmful to the FMS than it is to FGS. FGS can raise funds from Xamar which is an unparalleled economic engine while also getting access to loans. FMS will become increasingly dependent.

My prediction

• completing the constitution without Deni

• we see IC pressure for PL to agree on elections.

• next FGS government continue with the constitution as it’ll be in the benefit of every future FGS future president to have a centralised state

• constitution slowly becomes more enforced as the FGS’s power grows.

 

[GaradShabeel]

FGS revenue has passed $30 million this month, a new record.

Sure there’s problems but with growth expected in Xamar to start hitting more than 5% and improved security leading to a construction boom I doubt it’ll be a problem for much longer.

Also yes IC will cut aid, which is more harmful to the FMS than it is to FGS. FGS can raise funds from Xamar which is an unparalleled economic engine while also getting access to loans. FMS will become increasingly dependent.

Will the FMS be self-sufficient by then? Or are we going to use loans to support our budget rather than for development?

 

[bidenkulaha]

Will the FMS be self-sufficient by then? Or are we going to use loans to support our budget rather than for development?

Loans will be used for development and states that comply with FGS get the most development projects. That’s my prediction.

It’s why PL has said ‘if IMF debt relief happens we could return to civil war’. They know how game changing it is

 

[GaradShabeel]

FGS revenue has passed $30 million this month, a new record.

Sure there’s problems but with growth expected in Xamar to start hitting more than 5% and improved security leading to a construction boom I doubt it’ll be a problem for much longer.

Also yes IC will cut aid, which is more harmful to the FMS than it is to FGS. FGS can raise funds from Xamar which is an unparalleled economic engine while also getting access to loans. FMS will become increasingly dependent.

My prediction

• completing the constitution without Deni

• we see IC pressure for PL to agree on elections.

• next FGS government continue with the constitution as it’ll be in the benefit of every future FGS future president to have a centralised state

• constitution slowly becomes more enforced as the FGS’s power grows.

I never thought about this, but once the constitution is finalized, it can at any point in the future be changed in by an incoming gov't. Hypothetically, all agreements can be reversed and technically even abolish the federal system of Somalia

'next FGS government continue with the constitution as it’ll be in the benefit of every future FGS future president to have a centralised state'

You mean a strong federal gov't or a true centralized state?

 

[bidenkulaha]

I never thought about this, but once the constitution is finalized, it can at any point be changed in future by an incoming gov't. Hypothetically, all agreements can be reversed in the future and technically even abolish the federal system of Somalia

'next FGS government continue with the constitution as it’ll be in the benefit of every future FGS future president to have a centralised state'

You mean a strong federal gov't or a true centralized state?

Strong FGS = centralised state we’ll get increasingly controlled from centre as Somali politicians love power like their peers across the world

 

[GaradShabeel]

Strong FGS = centralised state we’ll get increasingly controlled from centre as Somali politicians love power like their peers across the world

Hunguri badana siyaasinta ka shaqeeya dowladda federaalka Even a secessionist can be 'convinced' to give up his/her aspirations with enough money and/or power

 

[Fisherman 75]

FGS revenue has passed $30 million this month, a new record.

Sure there’s problems but with growth expected in Xamar to start hitting more than 5% and improved security leading to a construction boom I doubt it’ll be a problem for much longer.

Also yes IC will cut aid, which is more harmful to the FMS than it is to FGS. FGS can raise funds from Xamar which is an unparalleled economic engine while also getting access to loans. FMS will become increasingly dependent.

My prediction

• completing the constitution without Deni

• we see IC pressure for PL to agree on elections.

• next FGS government continue with the constitution as it’ll be in the benefit of every future FGS future president to have a centralised state

• constitution slowly becomes more enforced as the FGS’s power grows.

Just to confirm this means Banadir revenue has touched $30 million for the first time? Wouldn’t be surprised as the city has been insanely growing past 2 years and even more so in recent months

 

[Gadhwayne]

SL situation is different to PL. Also SSC stuff is dead, Deni killed it on August 1st when he said he’s giving them time before joining PL. IC is not waiting on SL or SSC.

PL is the only interesting point you make but IC was split on the UN session

• EU is funding the completion of the constitution without PL. They’re just paid $20 million to implement the NCC agreements, which is the first cheque of many

• U.K. is in support of completing the constitution

• US is trying to bring PL to the negotiating table but after failing to convince Deni and his latest statement about no constitution without Somaliland we shall see if they continue with that futile task. Currently the US is pushing World Bank and IMF to compete debt relief program without PL and relaxing the arms embargo too which is a big change in past policy (need for unanimous consent from FMS)

PL/SSDF dont matter and neithe does JSL. Qoslaaye only needs the 4 FMS who are stakeholders. Somalilamd is not even in the FGS process and PL is defacto out unless Qoslaaye likes how SS signed Faroole's fexderal constitution at Garoowr 1 and Garoowe 2 confetences.

The arms embargo remain as KDF/ENDF/ATMIS have to maintain Somalia Italiana protctorate status.

 

[bidenkulaha]

PL/SSDF dont matter and neithe does JSL. Qoslaaye only needs the 4 FMS who are stakeholders. Somalilamd is not even in the FGS process and PL is defacto out unless Qoslaaye likes how SS signed Faroole's fexderal constitution at Garoowr 1 and Garoowe 2 confetences.

The arms embargo remain as KDF/ENDF/ATMIS have to maintain Somalia Italiana protctorate status.

Somalia has been given a year to prove it can handle it’s security over the next year. Should we do so we’ll leave chapter 7. I have faith in HSM to accomplish given the strong Arab support.

Arms embargo hasn’t got much of a shelf life. ATMIS is struggling for funding and is set for another 3,000 to leave next month

 

[bidenkulaha]

Likely this document has now been given to MPs after todays session

 

[Gadhwayne]

Somalia has been given a year to prove it can handle it’s security over the next year. Should we do so we’ll leave chapter 7. I have faith in HSM to accomplish given the strong Arab support.

Arms embargo hasn’t got much of a shelf life. ATMIS is struggling for funding and is set for another 3,000 to leave next month

UK and pro UK elements in north america/europe would rather fund KDF/ENDF/ATMIS than allow the ATMIS federal protectorate Somalia Italiana federal government get too many heavy weapons. JSL and the independent state federal member state of Puntland are also going to give legitimacy for arms embargo

Spoiler

You don't have permission to view the spoiler content. Log in or register now.

 

[bidenkulaha]

Independent constitutional review committee are today working on changing election agreement at NCC into constitutional language. This affects point 4 in the KMG constitution

1-4 will be changed to complete the constitution