Federation always comes under attack and almost always fails

[Itsnotthateasy]

Paraphrasing Mawhood, P. (1984). The Politics of Survival: Federal States in the Third World.:

In recent times it has been more common for a federation to collapse than to endure. Normally a federation fragments into it's component parts, or becomes in reality ( whether or not the name of "federation" is retained) a unitary state.

In the third world, a good federation is one that is still there after ten years have passed.

Surviving federations: Malaysia, India, Nigeria. While surviving as federations, all three have had their constitutions changed.

Malaysia and Nigeria have colonial history of decentralized administration which passed over into independence. Prefederation history of decentralized administration for the regions or provinces might be a force favoring stability in these cases.

India's federalism has the following features: a single judiciary, All-India Civil Service that staffed higher posts in state as well as federal administration. India's central government was authorized to substitute for the government of any state that in its opinion was failing to perform satisfactorily. Furthermore, in an emergency, the system was designed to become a unitary system of government. Even in normal times the centre maintained its dominance over much of the economy through economic planning controls. India's federalism is based on linguistic regions.

Failed federations: Argentina, Brazil, Venezuela, The West Indies, Mali Federation, Cameroon, Libya, Jordan/Iraq, Eygpt/Yemen, Ethiopia/Eritrea and Pakistan, Indochina and Indonesia, Senegambia.

..federalism does not work when it is imposed or at any rate urged, upon dependent territories by departing colonial administratiors; that is it is not a solution to built in divergencies and basic disunity....

Own thoughts:

Somalia doesn't have the features of surviving federations so that suggests to me Somalia will either become a unitary state or balkanize. Considering overwhelming international support for the FGS, I would guess that Somalia moves towards a unitary state notwithstanding pressure from regional adminstrations.

 

[DR OSMAN]

Paraphrasing Mawhood, P. (1984). The Politics of Survival: Federal States in the Third World.:

In recent times it has been more common for a federation to collapse than to endure. Normally a federation fragments into it's component parts, or becomes in reality ( whether or not the name of "federation" is retained) a unitary state.

In the third world, a good federation is one that is still there after ten years have passed.

Surviving federations: Malaysia, India, Nigeria. While surviving as federations, all three have had their constitutions changed.

Malaysia and Nigeria have colonial history of decentralized administration which passed over into independence. Prefederation history of decentralized administration for the regions or provinces might be a force favoring stability in these cases.

India's federalism has the following features: a single judiciary, All-India Civil Service that staffed higher posts in state as well as federal administration. India's central government was authorized to substitute for the government of any state that in its opinion was failing to perform satisfactorily. Furthermore, in an emergency, the system was designed to become a unitary system of government. Even in normal times the centre maintained its dominance over much of the economy through economic planning controls. India's federalism is based on linguistic regions.

Failed federations: Argentina, Brazil, Venezuela, The West Indies, Mali Federation, Cameroon, Libya, Jordan/Iraq, Eygpt/Yemen, Ethiopia/Eritrea and Pakistan, Indochina and Indonesia, Senegambia.

..federalism does not work when it is imposed or at any rate urged, upon dependent territories by departing colonial administratiors; that is it is not a solution to built in divergencies and basic disunity....

Own thoughts:

Somalia doesn't have the features of surviving federations so that suggests to me Somalia will either become a unitary state or balkanize. Considering overwhelming international support for the FGS, I would guess that Somalia moves towards a unitary state notwithstanding pressure from regional adminstrations.

Unitary state structures and Centralism is a colonial idea not a somali homegrown solution so it will fail in less then 30 years if re implemented.

Somalis are clan based society and any attempt to give power centrally to a region or clan will create rebellion movements and clans seeking foreign power help leading to more fight for power scenarios leading to an unstable state.

Add the fact its coming out of a 34 year civil war and with trust at an all time low to copy colonial governance will lead to another civil war for power. Other federations(fuedal societies) failing have no impact on The somali federation model because we have our own local narrative and not fuedal societies. Any system not complimenting somali clan culture will fail. Importing colonial unitary structure on a clan based society will never work because it was attempted in 1960 to 1991 and didn't even last 30 years. Any more attempts to copy fuedal structures or colonial structures, it shall fail even earlier maybe 10 years.

 

[Itsnotthateasy]

Unitary state structures and Centralism is a colonial idea not a somali homegrown solution so it will fail in less then 30 years if re implemented.

Somalis are clan based society and any attempt to give power centrally to a region or clan will create rebellion movements and clans seeking foreign power help leading to more fight for power scenarios leading to an unstable state.

Add the fact its coming out of a 34 year civil war and with trust at an all time low to copy colonial governance will lead to another civil war for power. Other federations(fuedal societies) failing have no impact on The somali federation model because we have our own local narrative and not fuedal societies. Any system not complimenting somali clan culture will fail. Importing colonial unitary structure on a clan based society will never work because it was attempted in 1960 to 1991 and didn't even last 30 years. Any more attempts to copy fuedal structures or colonial structures, it shall fail even earlier maybe 10 years.

Rebel groups and parallel government are not options on the table.

There are no options to maintain the federal system - withdrawing recognition from the federal government is not an effective strategy.

I think most FMS are not in a position to resist because of their security situation and funding situation so the new constitution is going into effect.

 

[DR OSMAN]

Rebel groups and parallel government are not options on the table.

There are no options to maintain the federal system - withdrawing recognition from the federal government is not an effective strategy.

I think most FMS are not in a position to resist because of their security situation and funding situation so the new constitution is going into effect.

You been debunked attempting to use fuedal federalism models which is totally irrelevant to Somali federalism. Centralism has been tried and failed within 30 years, their no political appetite for it locally or internationally unless you want to repeat central state failure. Till then only option available is balkanization at least that's an untried option. Why r you pro central cant you stand on your own? Do U want to hide your clan failure under the Somali name!!!

 

[wheel]

Unitary state structures and Centralism is a colonial idea not a somali homegrown solution so it will fail in less then 30 years if re implemented.

Somalis are clan based society and any attempt to give power centrally to a region or clan will create rebellion movements and clans seeking foreign power help leading to more fight for power scenarios leading to an unstable state.

Add the fact its coming out of a 34 year civil war and with trust at an all time low to copy colonial governance will lead to another civil war for power. Other federations(fuedal societies) failing have no impact on The somali federation model because we have our own local narrative and not fuedal societies. Any system not complimenting somali clan culture will fail. Importing colonial unitary structure on a clan based society will never work because it was attempted in 1960 to 1991 and didn't even last 30 years. Any more attempts to copy fuedal structures or colonial structures, it shall fail even earlier maybe 10 years.

We need to evolve from a clan based society not build a state around it.

 

[DR OSMAN]

We need to evolve from a clan based society not build a state around it.

Evolve to what? A fuedal society where your identity is linked to a job like the baker family or the Smiths lol nah no thanks, I can abtirsi longer then their king's and queens. f*ck fuedalism. Their king's and queens adopted our culture to keep abtirsi while tying their peasants to occupational identity.

 

[wheel]

Evolve to what? A fuedal society where your identity is linked to a job like the baker family or the Smiths lol nah no thanks, I can abtirsi longer then their king's and queens. f*ck fuedalism. Their king's and queens adopted our culture to keep abtirsi while tying their peasants to occupational identity.

No feudal societies don't exist anymore, and most countries have suppressed clan based societies and culture. It's imperative that somalis do the same if they wish to have a stable government and a United people.

 

[Itsnotthateasy]

You been debunked attempting to use fuedal federalism models which is totally irrelevant to Somali federalism. Centralism has been tried and failed within 30 years, their no political appetite for it locally or internationally unless you want to repeat central state failure. Till then only option available is balkanization at least that's an untried option. Why r you pro central cant you stand on your own? Do U want to hide your clan failure under the Somali name!!!

How can you build a country with semi-autonomous clan states? Besides there's nothing to fear from a central government. You should only fear a central government with professional and competent institutions, not the one Somalia has now. Somalia became dangerous because it had at least a couple decades of neutral government that many people subcribed to and it managed to build some competent institutions. Its slide into barbaric tribalism was gradual. None of those issues exist anymore. No threat of military takeover exists.

 

[DR OSMAN]

No feudal societies don't exist anymore, and most countries have suppressed clan based societies and culture. It's imperative that somalis do the same if they wish to have a stable government and a United people.

What you mean fuedal society don't exist? The first thing they ask you after your name is what is your job, showing you that your name is tied to an occupation. Fuedal culture means societies that derive their identity from occupations which the western world does.

 

[wheel]

What you mean fuedal society don't exist? The first thing they ask you after your name is what is your job, showing you that your name is tied to an occupation. Fuedal culture means societies that derive their identity from occupations which the western world does.

And what's wrong with being named after a occupation? better that than some illiterate nomad wandering the deserts all year round. Funny thing is that nomads look down on jobs that help build urban societies. Things like leather working and blacksmithing, menial labour like construction/plumbing. You seem like a smart guy but its telling the hold this backwards system holds on diaspora psyche, imagine those back home that dont know any better.

 

[CABDULWALI XASAN.]

all of these people calling for federation are absolutely happy at the crisis going on, which can only be described as a failed one. Just say it upfront if you want qabil states

 

[Abaq]

Paraphrasing Mawhood, P. (1984). The Politics of Survival: Federal States in the Third World.:

In recent times it has been more common for a federation to collapse than to endure. Normally a federation fragments into it's component parts, or becomes in reality ( whether or not the name of "federation" is retained) a unitary state.

In the third world, a good federation is one that is still there after ten years have passed.

Surviving federations: Malaysia, India, Nigeria. While surviving as federations, all three have had their constitutions changed.

Malaysia and Nigeria have colonial history of decentralized administration which passed over into independence. Prefederation history of decentralized administration for the regions or provinces might be a force favoring stability in these cases.

India's federalism has the following features: a single judiciary, All-India Civil Service that staffed higher posts in state as well as federal administration. India's central government was authorized to substitute for the government of any state that in its opinion was failing to perform satisfactorily. Furthermore, in an emergency, the system was designed to become a unitary system of government. Even in normal times the centre maintained its dominance over much of the economy through economic planning controls. India's federalism is based on linguistic regions.

Failed federations: Argentina, Brazil, Venezuela, The West Indies, Mali Federation, Cameroon, Libya, Jordan/Iraq, Eygpt/Yemen, Ethiopia/Eritrea and Pakistan, Indochina and Indonesia, Senegambia.

..federalism does not work when it is imposed or at any rate urged, upon dependent territories by departing colonial administratiors; that is it is not a solution to built in divergencies and basic disunity....

Own thoughts:

Somalia doesn't have the features of surviving federations so that suggests to me Somalia will either become a unitary state or balkanize. Considering overwhelming international support for the FGS, I would guess that Somalia moves towards a unitary state notwithstanding pressure from regional adminstrations.

That is a blatant lie. Somalis were heavily decentralised before colonisation. There were open borders for free trade and movement of peoples and sharing of vital resources such as water and pasture on treaty bases but that was it. We didn’t share anything else. Our only experiment in a unitary state 1960-1991 ended in abject failure

 

[Abaq]

We need to evolve from a clan based society not build a state around it.

You can’t do this overnight. SYL tried and failed. It is an organic process that we can’t control and will take centuries

 

[Abaq]

all of these people calling for federation are absolutely happy at the crisis going on, which can only be described as a failed one. Just say it upfront if you want qabil states

That is precisely what we want. We want organic qabiil states because that is where our allegiance lies. Then we can compete with other qabiil states

 

[CABDULWALI XASAN.]

And what's wrong with being named after a occupation? better that than some illiterate nomad wandering the deserts all year round. Funny thing is that nomads look down on jobs that help build urban societies. Things like leather working and blacksmithing, menial labour like construction/plumbing. You seem like a smart guy but its telling the hold this backwards system holds on diaspora psyche, imagine those back home that dont know any better.

I wouldn't accept his absolute strawman argument, how does evolving from qabil states lead to a feudal society? They havent been around for more then 100 years. what your trying to do is take the qubil approach and try to label it as federalism.

 

[CABDULWALI XASAN.]

That is precisely what we want. We want organic qabiil states because that is where our allegiance lies. Then we can compete with other qabiil states

If we were alone in this world, thats what I would choose, but clearly we are not. We are not in privilidged position to divide ourselves amongst qabil, believe me that would be the ideal choice but look around we would be easy pickings if ethiopia needed a coast during a world conflict. Furthermore, if we were all united development would go really quick, weve already been stagnant for the past 30 years. Imagine if everyone started a qabil state all with its own democracy hahaha that would be the end of the somali race as we know it. Really dissappointed that u share Ogaden with me, considering how we are the most pro unity clan even after all the troubles weve faced.

 

[CABDULWALI XASAN.]

That is precisely what we want. We want organic qabiil states because that is where our allegiance lies. Then we can compete with other qabiil states

This alligence, has been fostered by foreign powers aswell as ill acting internal powers who want a better control over the somali people. Think about it, Qabil leader Might aswell be dictator I forgot which country but its a lot more easier to control these stupid qabil 'president' regional leaders. UAE calls them over like a dog every month to pay them. You think they are truly in our interest? Every single day u have a new drone montage with the most loudest music and people are proudly repping that. A road that is how much we have regressed as a people its not even funny anymore this is just depressing honestly

 

[JamalFarah]

Paraphrasing Mawhood, P. (1984). The Politics of Survival: Federal States in the Third World.:

In recent times it has been more common for a federation to collapse than to endure. Normally a federation fragments into it's component parts, or becomes in reality ( whether or not the name of "federation" is retained) a unitary state.

In the third world, a good federation is one that is still there after ten years have passed.

Surviving federations: Malaysia, India, Nigeria. While surviving as federations, all three have had their constitutions changed.

Malaysia and Nigeria have colonial history of decentralized administration which passed over into independence. Prefederation history of decentralized administration for the regions or provinces might be a force favoring stability in these cases.

India's federalism has the following features: a single judiciary, All-India Civil Service that staffed higher posts in state as well as federal administration. India's central government was authorized to substitute for the government of any state that in its opinion was failing to perform satisfactorily. Furthermore, in an emergency, the system was designed to become a unitary system of government. Even in normal times the centre maintained its dominance over much of the economy through economic planning controls. India's federalism is based on linguistic regions.

Failed federations: Argentina, Brazil, Venezuela, The West Indies, Mali Federation, Cameroon, Libya, Jordan/Iraq, Eygpt/Yemen, Ethiopia/Eritrea and Pakistan, Indochina and Indonesia, Senegambia.

..federalism does not work when it is imposed or at any rate urged, upon dependent territories by departing colonial administratiors; that is it is not a solution to built in divergencies and basic disunity....

Own thoughts:

Somalia doesn't have the features of surviving federations so that suggests to me Somalia will either become a unitary state or balkanize. Considering overwhelming international support for the FGS, I would guess that Somalia moves towards a unitary state notwithstanding pressure from regional adminstrations.

Your critique is valid. One crucial point to note is that in federal states that function, have a relatively decentralized governance system, federalism is primarily region-based. In countries like Germany and the US, federal states function as regional administrative units where regional identity takes a backseat to national identity. The citizens' identification with a region is based on their place of residence rather than their ethnic or tribal background. Children born to parents who have moved between states tend to identify strongly with the state of their birth, which is subordinate to their national identity.

In contrast, Somalia's states are tribal, leading to a form of pseudo-ethnic federalism that is prone to failure. While we may visualize clans on maps, Somali clans don't neatly fit into these boundaries. This situation often renders certain tribes minorities in their own homeland, resulting in marginalization. Disputes within federal member states and the Federal Government of Somalia quickly escalate into tribal conflicts, sidelining truth and justice in favor of tribal interests.

The idea of Somalia transitioning into a unitary state is unrealistic due to the deep-seated tribal conflicts in the 1990s. No entity possesses the necessary military strength to control the entire country, and the mass mobilization of tribal families under centralized leadership remains a distant possibility.

Likewise, balkanization is not a viable option. Leaders within clans and the FGS understand this and have reached the same conclusion. Balkanization would only intensify conflicts, akin to what happened in Yugoslavia. Clans would vie for territory dominance, leading to brutal violence against tribes on the periphery and in enclaves.

Ultimately, in such a scenario, one faction stands to benefit the most—Al-Shabaab. If the FGS collapses and regional militias start fighting amongst themselves, it's only a matter of time before Al-Shabaab gains significant influence. Unlike in 2006 when the global focus on counterterrorism was intense, today's geopolitical climate may not offer the same level of support to combat extremist groups.
In essence, the normalization of groups like the Taliban and other Islamic movements suggests a tacit acceptance aslong as theyconfine their activities within their borders. However, this acceptance does not bode well for Somalia's stability or the well-being of its people.

 

[Angelina]

Your critique is valid. One crucial point to note is that in federal states that function, have a relatively decentralized governance system, federalism is primarily region-based. In countries like Germany and the US, federal states function as regional administrative units where regional identity takes a backseat to national identity. The citizens' identification with a region is based on their place of residence rather than their ethnic or tribal background. Children born to parents who have moved between states tend to identify strongly with the state of their birth, which is subordinate to their national identity.

In contrast, Somalia's states are tribal, leading to a form of pseudo-ethnic federalism that is prone to failure. While we may visualize clans on maps, Somali clans don't neatly fit into these boundaries. This situation often renders certain tribes minorities in their own homeland, resulting in marginalization. Disputes within federal member states and the Federal Government of Somalia quickly escalate into tribal conflicts, sidelining truth and justice in favor of tribal interests.

The idea of Somalia transitioning into a unitary state is unrealistic due to the deep-seated tribal conflicts in the 1990s. No entity possesses the necessary military strength to control the entire country, and the mass mobilization of tribal families under centralized leadership remains a distant possibility.

Likewise, balkanization is not a viable option. Leaders within clans and the FGS understand this and have reached the same conclusion. Balkanization would only intensify conflicts, akin to what happened in Yugoslavia. Clans would vie for territory dominance, leading to brutal violence against tribes on the periphery and in enclaves.

Ultimately, in such a scenario, one faction stands to benefit the most—Al-Shabaab. If the FGS collapses and regional militias start fighting amongst themselves, it's only a matter of time before Al-Shabaab gains significant influence. Unlike in 2006 when the global focus on counterterrorism was intense, today's geopolitical climate may not offer the same level of support to combat extremist groups.
In essence, the normalization of groups like the Taliban and other Islamic movements suggests a tacit acceptance aslong as theyconfine their activities within their borders. However, this acceptance does not bode well for Somalia's stability or the well-being of its people.

Fantastic critique. How individuals can’t see this is an example of rapid tribalism.

 

[CABDULWALI XASAN.]

Your critique is valid. One crucial point to note is that in federal states that function, have a relatively decentralized governance system, federalism is primarily region-based. In countries like Germany and the US, federal states function as regional administrative units where regional identity takes a backseat to national identity. The citizens' identification with a region is based on their place of residence rather than their ethnic or tribal background. Children born to parents who have moved between states tend to identify strongly with the state of their birth, which is subordinate to their national identity.

In contrast, Somalia's states are tribal, leading to a form of pseudo-ethnic federalism that is prone to failure. While we may visualize clans on maps, Somali clans don't neatly fit into these boundaries. This situation often renders certain tribes minorities in their own homeland, resulting in marginalization. Disputes within federal member states and the Federal Government of Somalia quickly escalate into tribal conflicts, sidelining truth and justice in favor of tribal interests.

The idea of Somalia transitioning into a unitary state is unrealistic due to the deep-seated tribal conflicts in the 1990s. No entity possesses the necessary military strength to control the entire country, and the mass mobilization of tribal families under centralized leadership remains a distant possibility.

Likewise, balkanization is not a viable option. Leaders within clans and the FGS understand this and have reached the same conclusion. Balkanization would only intensify conflicts, akin to what happened in Yugoslavia. Clans would vie for territory dominance, leading to brutal violence against tribes on the periphery and in enclaves.

Ultimately, in such a scenario, one faction stands to benefit the most—Al-Shabaab. If the FGS collapses and regional militias start fighting amongst themselves, it's only a matter of time before Al-Shabaab gains significant influence. Unlike in 2006 when the global focus on counterterrorism was intense, today's geopolitical climate may not offer the same level of support to combat extremist groups.
In essence, the normalization of groups like the Taliban and other Islamic movements suggests a tacit acceptance aslong as theyconfine their activities within their borders. However, this acceptance does not bode well for Somalia's stability or the well-being of its people.

Solution is a unitary state, its stil viable. Hell I bet 60% of somalis were born after the civil war. Its just gonna take a while for the louder ones to realize this. Insha Allah somalia will evolve into a unitary state, I still am hopeful.