Ethiopia's biggest regret

[AbdiGeedi]

The world is evolving and rapidly changing, not least of it is the political landscape. Long gone are full scale wars. It is the season of duality and mercenary proxy wars. Our world is moving towards multi vector dominance. No one country is an absolute ruler of the world order now. In this environment smaller countries can advance their nefarious goals uninhibited. Ethiopia is one of them.

Ever since Eritrea gained its independence in early 90s, Ethiopia became a landlocked country. Somalia was thrown into turmoil ever since Siad Barre's departure.

Our country was in such a disarray that the international community de facto accepted that Somalia is a fail country with no immediate prospects.

As a reference let's look at Syria. It used to be one of the jewels of the Arab world. Their economy was well balanced albeit not modern. Then comes the US designed war to topple Assad and help Israel. Syria is totally destroyed now in literal terms and de facto divided into four parts, the Assad regime areas, the American-Kurdish controlled north and central east, the Turkish controlled north and north west and the new comer - the Russian controlled Mediterranean coastal areas. There is no hope for old Syria now. The US is building a Kurdish state which will become Israel's ally to keep Iran and the regime areas separated. Turkey is skillfully annexing the areas it occupies in a natural pace. Russia is expanding its military presence and keeping Assad/Iran forces away from the areas it views as its own now.

Now let's get back to our backyard. Ethiopia could have used the same methods as the above to annex Somalia de facto and slowly absorb us in order to have sea and resource access. Fortunately for us, they did not have the acumen to embark on such operation in a timely manner and now Ethiopia is cock-blocked by Turkey. The slow progress Somalia had since 2011 has swayed the international community's attitude toward us. Somalia is coming out as a viable state now.

Now Ethiopia can only hope to use divisions among Somalis and somehow make Somaliland its satellite state or maybe even annex it in the long term. The Amharas and Oromos residing in Somaliland are alarming to say the least. Ethiopia now have 'access" to sea through Djibouti and Somaliland (Berbera) and even planning to have its own Navy which bodes bad for Somaliland in the long term.

Somalis needs to stay alert and play its own game using the situation to its own advantage.

I am pretty sure Ethiopia right now is biting itself for not going in the Syrian style before the Turks arrived in Somalia. Right now Turkey is our insurance.

 

[Marshall D Abdi]

Great to hear it it would be better if we had ogaden n nfd

 

[xabashi]

The world is evolving and rapidly changing, not least of it is the political landscape. Long gone are full scale wars. It is the season of duality and mercenary proxy wars. Our world is moving towards multi vector dominance. No one country is an absolute ruler of the world order now. In this environment smaller countries can advance their nefarious goals uninhibited. Ethiopia is one of them.

Ever since Eritrea gained its independence in early 90s, Ethiopia became a landlocked country. Somalia was thrown into turmoil ever since Siad Barre's departure.

Our country was in such a disarray that the international community de facto accepted that Somalia is a fail country with no immediate prospects.

As a reference let's look at Syria. It used to be one of the jewels of the Arab world. Their economy was well balanced albeit not modern. Then comes the US designed war to topple Assad and help Israel. Syria is totally destroyed now in literal terms and de facto divided into four parts, the Assad regime areas, the American-Kurdish controlled north and central east, the Turkish controlled north and north west and the new comer - the Russian controlled Mediterranean coastal areas. There is no hope for old Syria now. The US is building a Kurdish state which will become Israel's ally to keep Iran and the regime areas separated. Turkey is skillfully annexing the areas it occupies in a natural pace. Russia is expanding its military presence and keeping Assad/Iran forces away from the areas it views as its own now.

Now let's get back to our backyard. Ethiopia could have used the same methods as the above to annex Somalia de facto and slowly absorb us in order to have sea and resource access. Fortunately for us, they did not have the acumen to embark on such operation in a timely manner and now Ethiopia is cock-blocked by Turkey. The slow progress Somalia had since 2011 has swayed the international community's attitude toward us. Somalia is coming out as a viable state now.

Now Ethiopia can only hope to use divisions among Somalis and somehow make Somaliland its satellite state or maybe even annex it in the long term. The Amharas and Oromos residing in Somaliland are alarming to say the least. Ethiopia now have 'access" to sea through Djibouti and Somaliland (Berbera) and even planning to have its own Navy which bodes bad for Somaliland in the long term.

Somalis needs to stay alert and play its own game using the situation to its own advantage.

I am pretty sure Ethiopia right now is biting itself for not going in the Syrian style before the Turks arrived in Somalia. Right now Turkey is our insurance.

We never had and we don't have an ambition to incorporate Somalia into Ethiopia. In fact and contrary to what you stated, Ethiopia is not dividing but trying to unite Somalia even with Somaliland risking our good relationships with Somaliland. Think about it, if Ethiopia wants that kind of thing, why not trying to arrange some kind of confederation with Somaliland? Is that not easier and way better for Ethiopia than trying to incorporate Somalia? But Ethiopia is not even doing that and never tried that the last decades. So I really don't know why Somalis bring up this issue again and again and feel that somehow Ethiopia will incorporate Somalia. Where did you guys got this idea and why it is popping up all the time? Ethiopia wants to be have the kind of Ethio-Djibouti relations with all its neighbors, long, stable and based on business.

 

[Yahya]

Ethiopia is not interested anymore. This is not the tplf regime. Taming somalia and incorporating 15+ million wild cards into your stable country is not a viable option.

Somalis fight somalis, and you think they will settle nicely in ethiopia with free movement? We would ruin it for them in an instant.

 

[Marshall D Abdi]

We never had and we don't have an ambition to incorporate Somalia into Ethiopia. In fact and contrary to what you stated, Ethiopia is not dividing but trying to unite Somalia even with Somaliland risking our good relationships with Somaliland. Think about it, if Ethiopia wants that kind of thing, why not trying to arrange some kind of confederation with Somaliland? Is that not easier and way better for Ethiopia than trying to incorporate Somalia? But Ethiopia is not even doing that and never tried that the last decades. So I really don't know why Somalis bring up this issue again and again and feel that somehow Ethiopia will incorporate Somalia. Where did you guys got this idea and why it is popping up all the time? Ethiopia wants to be have the kind of Ethio-Djibouti relations with all its neighbors, long, stable and based on business.

One word OGADEN

 

[Marquis]

We never had and we don't have an ambition to incorporate Somalia into Ethiopia. In fact and contrary to what you stated, Ethiopia is not dividing but trying to unite Somalia even with Somaliland risking our good relationships with Somaliland. Think about it, if Ethiopia wants that kind of thing, why not trying to arrange some kind of confederation with Somaliland? Is that not easier and way better for Ethiopia than trying to incorporate Somalia? But Ethiopia is not even doing that and never tried that the last decades. So I really don't know why Somalis bring up this issue again and again and feel that somehow Ethiopia will incorporate Somalia. Where did you guys got this idea and why it is popping up all the time? Ethiopia wants to be have the kind of Ethio-Djibouti relations with all its neighbors, long, stable and based on business.

Somali nationalism revolves around the Ethiopian boogeyman

 

[xabashi]

One word OGADEN

Ogaden is a different matter both historically and politically. It has a long and controversial history that dates back to the 1897 treaty etc. which I don't want to go into detail. The point is, Ogaden was part of Ethiopia before there was Somalia. You can't equate that as "incorporating" Somalia. Ogaden was never part of the country called Somalia. Of course that doesn't mean they can't become part of Somalia if the people want it. I only wish them good luck!

 

[Marshall D Abdi]

Ogaden is a different matter both historically and politically. It has a long and controversial history that dates back to the 1897 treaty etc. which I don't want to go into detail. The point is, Ogaden was part of Ethiopia before there was Somalia. You can't equate that as "incorporating" Somalia. Ogaden was never part of the country called Somalia. Of course that doesn't mean they can't become part of Somalia if the people want it. I only wish them good luck!

Dude wtf there was no ethiopia either only aksum n Abyssinia yall never dared to control u tried but adal happend killing 2 kings along side vasco de gama after that oromia n ogaden was free untill yall bend for European like always do even receiver weapons n massacred others tribes but couldt do to us n begged for the white men to give u for free

 

[pablo]

Somalia just needs stability for the digging and selling of the oil, we can’t have xoolo running around when the worlds are on us on that day.

 

[xabashi]

Dude wtf there was no ethiopia either only aksum n Abyssinia yall never dared to control u tried but adal happend killing 2 kings along side vasco de gama after that oromia n ogaden was free untill yall bend for European like always do even receiver weapons n massacred others tribes but couldt do to us n begged for the white men to give u for free

I am talking about the time before Somalia became a country, by that time Ethiopia was already a member of the league of nations aka united nations of that time. From the moment Somalia became a country in 1960 to this day, Ethiopia never tried to incorporate Somalia territory including Somaliland.

 

[Marshall D Abdi]

I am talking about the time before Somalia became a country, by that time Ethiopia was already a member of the league of nations aka united nations of that time. From the moment Somalia became a country in 1960 to this day, Ethiopia never tried to incorporate Somalia territory including Somaliland.

Who fucks gives about that we talking about 1898 when the brits signed ogaden for u guys despite only havibg Habesha n tigrey region n u ppl opressed my ppl for century get outta here raw meat eating baboon hope one day oromo n somali slaughter the habesha amen

 

[Caaro]

We never had and we don't have an ambition to incorporate Somalia into Ethiopia. In fact and contrary to what you stated, Ethiopia is not dividing but trying to unite Somalia even with Somaliland risking our good relationships with Somaliland. Think about it, if Ethiopia wants that kind of thing, why not trying to arrange some kind of confederation with Somaliland? Is that not easier and way better for Ethiopia than trying to incorporate Somalia? But Ethiopia is not even doing that and never tried that the last decades. So I really don't know why Somalis bring up this issue again and again and feel that somehow Ethiopia will incorporate Somalia. Where did you guys got this idea and why it is popping up all the time? Ethiopia wants to be have the kind of Ethio-Djibouti relations with all its neighbors, long, stable and based on business.

As much as I’d like to agree with you, we have to look at this subjectively.

Ethiopia doesn’t care about somalia, there are only a few reasons why ethiopia didn’t do what @AbdiGeedi mentioned.

1. Ethiopia loves somalia and wouldn’t dare on taking advantage of somalia’s dissaray (a joke of a possibility)

2. Ethiopia didn’t have the power or foresight to take advantage of the opportunity to acquire the sea and resources (plausible)

3. Ethiopia doesn’t believe it’s a very good strategy to take somalia in and digest it. For many different reasons (This is the most likely imo)

 

[AbdiGeedi]

We never had and we don't have an ambition to incorporate Somalia into Ethiopia. In fact and contrary to what you stated, Ethiopia is not dividing but trying to unite Somalia even with Somaliland risking our good relationships with Somaliland. Think about it, if Ethiopia wants that kind of thing, why not trying to arrange some kind of confederation with Somaliland? Is that not easier and way better for Ethiopia than trying to incorporate Somalia? But Ethiopia is not even doing that and never tried that the last decades. So I really don't know why Somalis bring up this issue again and again and feel that somehow Ethiopia will incorporate Somalia. Where did you guys got this idea and why it is popping up all the time? Ethiopia wants to be have the kind of Ethio-Djibouti relations with all its neighbors, long, stable and based on business.

Your sunshine and rainbows views are naive or a paid attempt to paint Ethiopia's actions as saint. Machiavellian politics rule today's world. And you that very well.

The number one give-away of Ethiopia's nefarious intentions is the planned Navy. Why would a landlocked country need Navy? Are there Ethiopian territorial waters that needs to be guarded? No. But apparently it is planned that Ethiopia will one day have its own coast at Somalis' expense. This will lead to very bad ramifications for Somalis in the long run.

Please stop looking down at Somalis as dumbs who don't know what is going on around them in reality.

There is an unholy alliance among Israel, the UAE and Ethiopia. The talks held in Djibouti were from the onset designed to fail. It is being done to create the ground and justification for future de jure partition of Somalia along the old colonial lines. The whole thing is a sham and done against interests of Somali people.

Didn't the UAE deposited $1 billion to the Ethiopian Central Bank not long ago? Abiy squeezed the Turks out of Ethiopia. My understanding it was done on orders from Israel and the UAE. By the way, the Turks invested $2.5 in Ethiopia. Great way to go, canning Habeshas!

There many things going on in the background. The above are the only few of them.

I am afraid Somalia is in for a bad surprise.

 

[Ras]

If they annexed Somalia into Ethiopia they would lose control over the Galbeed.

We'd inhabit 50% of Ethiopian territory and we'd also be more United as a people which would lead to an inevitable secession.

Once we secede the rest of Ethiopia will fall apart.

It's like that Chinese proverb: giving up your bride and losing your army on top of it.



The best option is to break Somalia into smaller more manageable fiefdoms that would never be able to threaten ethiopia.

Get them to fight each other instead of developing a strong economy.

 

[Removed]

Ogaden is a different matter both historically and politically. It has a long and controversial history that dates back to the 1897 treaty etc. which I don't want to go into detail. The point is, Ogaden was part of Ethiopia before there was Somalia. You can't equate that as "incorporating" Somalia. Ogaden was never part of the country called Somalia. Of course that doesn't mean they can't become part of Somalia if the people want it. I only wish them good luck!

The vast majority of the Ogaden or the Somali region was not apart of Ethiopia most of it was ceded to Ethiopia by foreign powers by “treaties” and that which wasnt (around Harar) was conquered by the use of foreign help. Menelik was such a Euro tool he called himself a caucasian he was the first alt right horn african

 

[abdullah233]

The vast majority of the Ogaden or the Somali region was not apart of Ethiopia most of it was ceded to Ethiopia by foreign powers by “treaties” and that which wasnt (around Harar) was conquered by the use of foreign help. Menelik was such a Euro tool he called himself a caucasian he was the first alt-right horn african

Xabeshis now claiming gableed next up is gonna be the waqoyi

 

[xabashi]

As much as I’d like to agree with you, we have to look at this subjectively.

Ethiopia doesn’t care about somalia, there are only a few reasons why ethiopia didn’t do what @AbdiGeedi mentioned.

1. Ethiopia loves somalia and wouldn’t dare on taking advantage of somalia’s dissaray (a joke of a possibility)

2. Ethiopia didn’t have the power or foresight to take advantage of the opportunity to acquire the sea and resources (plausible)

3. Ethiopia doesn’t believe it’s a very good strategy to take somalia in and digest it. For many different reasons (This is the most likely imo)

We can speculate all day about Ethiopia's motives but the point and the hard fact is Ethiopia didn't try to incorporate Somalia or Somaliland during all the years when Somalia was practically stateless. That is the hard fact no matter the motivation might be. And yet many Somalis still have this feeling that Ethiopia is somehow trying to incorporate Somalia. Wtf?

 

[xabashi]

Who fucks gives about that we talking about 1898 when the brits signed ogaden for u guys despite only havibg Habesha n tigrey region n u ppl opressed my ppl for century get outta here raw meat eating baboon hope one day oromo n somali slaughter the habesha amen

Dude you are all over. We are talking about Sovereign Somalia, the country. There was no Somalia in 1898. You are mixing Somalis and the state of Somalia. We are not talking about the same thing, sorry.

 

[Marshall D Abdi]

Dude you are all over. We are talking about Sovereign Somalia, the country. There was no Somalia in 1898. You are mixing Somalis and the state of Somalia. We are not talking about the same thing, sorry.

Well guess what? IM TALKING ABOUT THAT SHIT have the wormd gotten in ur head by eating raw meat?

 

[xabashi]

Your sunshine and rainbows views are naive or a paid attempt to paint Ethiopia's actions as saint. Machiavellian politics rule today's world. And you that very well.

The number one give-away of Ethiopia's nefarious intentions is the planned Navy. Why would a landlocked country need Navy? Are there Ethiopian territorial waters that needs to be guarded? No. But apparently it is planned that Ethiopia will one day have its own coast at Somalis' expense. This will lead to very bad ramifications for Somalis in the long run.

Please stop looking down at Somalis as dumbs who don't know what is going on around them in reality.

There is an unholy alliance among Israel, the UAE and Ethiopia. The talks held in Djibouti were from the onset designed to fail. It is being done to create the ground and justification for future de jure partition of Somalia along the old colonial lines. The whole thing is a sham and done against interests of Somali people.

Didn't the UAE deposited $1 billion to the Ethiopian Central Bank not long ago? Abiy squeezed the Turks out of Ethiopia. My understanding it was done on orders from Israel and the UAE. By the way, the Turks invested $2.5 in Ethiopia. Great way to go, canning Habeshas!

There many things going on in the background. The above are the only few of them.

I am afraid Somalia is in for a bad surprise.

Ok where should I start. You are mixing many unrelated things and falling for conspiracy theories. First, why is Ethiopia trying to have a navy. Ethiopia sees Egypt to be the main threat to its dams and future projects and the realistic attack from Egypt comes only from Egypt's war ships launching rockets. Egypt attacking Ethiopia by land or even by air crossing the land and air space of neighboring countries is unlikely. So, to reduce this threat, Ethiopia wants to have a navy. The base will most probably be set up in Djibouti or may be in Eritrea if both countries build a healthy relationship in the future. Somalia is the most unlikely place even from the geographical location side.
Then again, what has setting up a naval base to do with incorporating a country? So many foreign countries have already setup a military base in the horn (Djibouti) but when an African country wants to do the same it is incorporating and annexing? Am I missing something or are these kinds of privileges reserved only for non-Africans?

And finally Turkey is still one of Ethiopia's main business partners. We don't believe in club mentality. We are good with UAE, Saudi, Israel, Qatar and Turkey. Just recently Qatar sided with Ethiopia alongside Somalia and Djibouti to block an arab league resolution. Everything doesn't have to be a conspiracy.

Turkey's companies have been investing in Ethiopia heavily and continue to do so. Turkey is and will remain one of our main business partners for long time to come.