Ethiopia is exposed

[Barkhadle1520]

Its not from IMF, its supply chain and market analysis update from World Food Program , WFP

Full posts on this:

Damn there's actually tons of opportunities to make money back home, simple businesses like raising chickens and selling the eggs could make you a ton of money since the demand is high and the supply is low

 

[Midas]

You are right, they renewed their loan agreement, which is actually part of debt restructuring negotiations.

The conditions for it was that Ethiopia had to make policy adjustments, improvements etc like lowering inflation etc.

But i don't really understand how they an ascertain that they have been faithful to this if there are no reliable economic data like World Bank indicated. So it might be that the IMF just take what they give them.




They borrowed 4.5 billion dollars to finance it from China back in 2018

Chinese investments in Africa go off the rails

Beijing signals new approach as concern grows over misguided ‘vanity projects’

www.ft.com

It bleeds money and doesn't contribute to any economic growth. It's pretty much seen as a 'Vanity Project'' by the Chinese themselves.
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Today. Hardly anyone can afford to use it and most of the train are left crumbling, empty and desolate .

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-12/addis-ababa-ethiopia-metro-s-decline-shows-china-s-step-back-from-africa

The mega projects have always been retarted but every few months you see somebody release a video talking about how some megaproject in africa will change everything. When in reality these things are nonsensical and never work.

The build it and they will come mentality is retarded and never works.

 

[Barkhadle1520]

The mega projects have always been retarted but every few months you see somebody release a video talking about how some megaproject in africa will change everything. When in reality these things are nonsensical and never work.

The build it and they will come mentality is retarded and never works.

Yeah its pointless to build a B$ rail system if your population cant afford it

 

[Midas]

Oh if only you knew
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But what's ironic is that Somalia is the only African country which under-estimates stats instead of over-estimating, Africa is sadly much much poorer than it seems.

https://tell.ng/zambias-6-gdp-growt...n-african-advocate-warns-of-imf-led-illusion/

Makes you realize how nonsensical the hdi estimates for a lot of countries in africa are.

Its why ive suspected for a long time that even though state capacity in these other countries is definitely significantly higher than in somalia. The living standard of somebody living in somalia is higher than a lot of these other countries. Kenya is about as good as it gets in subsharan africa.

 

[Barkhadle1520]

Makes you realize how nonsensical the hdi estimates for a lot of countries in africa are.

Its why ive suspected for a long time that even though state capacity in these other countries is definitely significantly higher than in somalia. The living standard of somebody living in somalia is higher than a lot of these other countries. Kenya is about as good as it gets in subsharan africa.

What about Botswana ? The whole economy is run on diamond mining but they're doing pretty good right ?

 

[Midas]

What about Botswana ? The whole economy is run on diamond mining but they're doing pretty good right ?

Yh there the exception to the rule but keep in mind its a country of 2 million people and
There at a thailand/azerbaijan level of gdp per capita. aalthough ive heard they're starting to run into some problems as well Since lab diamond have started to become really pouplar

 

[Barkhadle1520]

Yh there the exception to the rule but keep in mind its a country of 2 million people and
There at a thailand/azerbaijan level of gdp per capita. aalthough ive heard they're starting to run into some problems as well Since lab diamond have started to become really pouplar

No way 2M for such a big country, I didnt realise how low the population was, also youre right they've had plenty of time to diversify their economy, so they might also run into big problems by 2050

 

[Midas]

No way 2M for such a big country, I didnt realise how low the population was, also youre right they've had plenty of time to diversify their economy, so they might also run into big problems by 2050

Yh its kind of sad how even Africa's best sycess story is basically just a middle income country on par with Azerbaijan.

I think one thing to rember is that no country can seem to escape the economic situation/trends of the region they are part of. So you will almost never encounter a country which is 2-3 times richer than their neighbors. The exception are generally due to some external reason. This is part of why I harp so much about the oil. It would allow us to esecaps using debt financing to build infrastructure and allow us to invest in stuff like social programs for education and health.


also The facg it would take several years before we start seeing very large revenues is actually a good thing since too much money quickly would cause massive problems .

 

[Idilinaa]

And even in the late '80s, Somalia was still growing economically, private businesses were booming, grain production increased, and people had more disposable income.

This is from 1987 Business Magazine

It says:

''“Private sector activity literally has exploded. New stores are springing up rapidly in most of Somalia's cities and towns; numerous minibuses now operate; and drugstores which numbered only 20 several vears ago now are in the hundreds. Consumer goods are available more readily in greater variety and quantity throughout the country.”


“The response of the Somali economy has been impressive. The dramatic increase in grain production since liberalization of cereals marketing has helped Somalia become self-sufficient in maize and sorghum. Farmer income, based on relative prices of grain and consumer goods, has risen. Urban welfare also has improved as prices for domestic foodstuffs are relatively lower”

Here it says:

There has been a notable increase in farmer income and there is greater disposable income throughout the economy. Other results of recent reforms include significant increase in private sector investment as a percentage of GDP and corresponding new employment generation.
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You can tell there was a private sector growth that started in the 80s since a few of the large corporations that are operational today, began in the 80s

Gotta give our people some credit, this is some next level resilience.

Damn there's actually tons of opportunities to make money back home, simple businesses like raising chickens and selling the eggs could make you a ton of money since the demand is high and the supply is low

Yes, and some Somali youth in Somaliland have already started doing this recently.

If they expand it into regions facing shortages assuming they haven’t already there’s real money to be made.

There are tons of opportunities in Somalia if people actually study the market, spot the gaps, and address real needs.

And you don’t even need to have capital upfront, there are ways to secure funding. You can reach out to people, local businesses, community banks, orgs, microfinance groups, or even Somali investment funds.

Also, they left out Jigjiga and the wider Somali region in the Ethiopian market analysis which kind of proves what we already knew: that area operates pretty independently from the rest of Ethiopia’s economy.

Most of its trade links are with Somaliland, not Addis.

 

[Barkhadle1520]

You can tell there was a private sector growth that started in the 80s since a few of the large corporations that are operational today, began in the 80s

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Gotta give our people some credit, this is some next level resilience.


Yes, and some Somali youth in Somaliland have already started doing this recently.
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If they expand it into regions facing shortages assuming they haven’t already there’s real money to be made.

There are tons of opportunities in Somalia if people actually study the market, spot the gaps, and address real needs.

And you don’t even need to have capital upfront, there are ways to secure funding. You can reach out to people, local businesses, community banks, orgs, microfinance groups, or even Somali investment funds.

Also, they left out Jigjiga and the wider Somali region in the Ethiopian market analysis which kind of proves what we already knew: that area operates pretty independently from the rest of Ethiopia’s economy.

Most of its trade links are with Somaliland, not Addis.
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What period exactly is this referring to, also somalia as a whole today is light years ahead than Marxist Kacaan, a few small companies dont change that fact

 

[Idilinaa]

What period exactly is this referring to, also somalia as a whole today is light years ahead than Marxist Kacaan, a few small companies dont change that fact

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Those examples and plenty more show the economic shifts that started during that period. A lot of what we see now in Somalia’s private sector is just a continuation of that momentum.

But let’s be real it wasn’t Marxism that drove it. It reflects Somali society and culture more than any ideology ever did.

What was true then , is true today. We are an entrepreneurial society.

 

[Idilinaa]

Those examples and plenty more show the economic shifts that started during that period. A lot of what we see now in Somalia’s private sector is just a continuation of that momentum.

But let’s be real it wasn’t Marxism that drove it. It reflects Somali society and culture more than any ideology ever did.

What was true then , is true today. We are an entrepreneurial society.

Basically what i am saying is that it's in the nature and tendency of Somalis, when the govt de-controlled the economy and allowed for private sector to operate more freely, it exploded for that reason.

It kinda reminds of how Somalis went abroad to start industries, businesses and factories abroad that flourished because the colonialists barred us from it at home in the early 1900s.

Italian colonialism set us back

More money was spent on the military than on education. Somalis maintained their economic self-sufficiency, colonial settlers were dependent on imports. Somalis were not allowed to form trade unions Somalis went out of their way to help fellow somalis when they were not restricted...

www.somalispot.com

 

[Barkhadle1520]

Those examples and plenty more show the economic shifts that started during that period. A lot of what we see now in Somalia’s private sector is just a continuation of that momentum.

But let’s be real it wasn’t Marxism that drove it. It reflects Somali society and culture more than any ideology ever did.

What was true then , is true today. We are an entrepreneurial society.

Just say you dont have the source

 

[Idilinaa]

Just say you dont have the source

Somalia in the 80s saw real private sector growth, expanding markets, and increased agricultural output and I’ve already shared three separate sources confirming that.

Just because you hate Siad Barre or the Kacaan doesn’t mean you get to erase actual developments that took place. Progress happened, whether you like or agree with the leadership or not.

 

[Barkhadle1520]

Somalia in the 80s saw real private sector growth, expanding markets, and increased agricultural output and I’ve already shared three separate sources confirming that.

Just because you hate Siad Barre or the Kacaan doesn’t mean you get to erase actual developments that took place. Progress happened, whether you like or agree with the leadership or not.

 

[Idilinaa]

Oh if only you knew
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But what's ironic is that Somalia is the only African country which under-estimates stats instead of over-estimating, Africa is sadly much much poorer than it seems.

https://tell.ng/zambias-6-gdp-growt...n-african-advocate-warns-of-imf-led-illusion/

In that article she pretty much has the correct diagnosis

''Noor believes the country is trapped in a development model that prioritizes international approval and foreign investment over national ownership and human dignity."

This is why Somalia is miles a head of Ethiopia and all these other African countries.

It echoes something i have said time and time again on this forum

Something i said to @Top J

The biggest joke in Africa isn't Somalis , it's those Africans who don't control their own economies, allow foreign exploitation without resistance, and are so obsessed with maintaining a positive image that they avoid confronting real issues or finding lasting solutions. It's those who let their own people rot in slums while living next door in mansions.

This longer response i gave to @Shimbiris

The so called "PR'' doesn't really serve them in reality. Ethiopia is pretty much a hell hole filled with protracted ethnic conflict. The repression makes it unstable at all times.

The people living there have no economic freedom or mobility. The government owns all land, controls the economy, and foreign companies dominate their economy as cheap labor source. So they live in extremely severe crushing poverty, because the feudal system prevents true wealth creation. Their economy functions on aid.

Their Government legit operates like a feudal lord, occupying over peasants.

They export cash crops like coffee and don't prioritize food crops, so many suffer malnutrition and starvation.

Somali region is the only place with economic and political freedom. Also is stable. So we really shouldn't envy their so called PR.

If you don't pursue your own independent interests and are overly concerned with fitting in or not upsetting others to win their approval you will never move forward in life as a collective.

You can see how Black Americans/Jamaican/Africans relate with Ethiopians that they blow their money on luxury garb or vanity projects they don't need and trying to win a sit at the table with white people. They have no real locally controlled business activity in their areas they live in, large parts of it is owned and operated by outsiders who leave with the money

Everything they do is pursue acceptance by Whites and to keep up an image to the world out there , so they don't have an honest look at themselves to evolve or grow. They suffer as a people.

Ethiopia is also a growing hub for Seks tourism , so their women become exploited by filthy perverts from abroad in the towns or cities. Most of the local guides are pimps that do sex trafficking. In the country side they are victims of routine bride kidnappings and roaming militias that grape them. But they would rather promote good PR , then face the realities head on to improve the situation.

 

[Idilinaa]

I wonder if the same would happen in Somalia if a railroad was opened from Mogadishu to garowe or borama to garowe, would people be able to afford it ?

The high speed rail in morocco cost 15-20$ for 2nd class and 25-35$ for 1st class
Mombasa-Nairobia train ticket is 7-10$ for economy and 20–30$ for 1st class
Cairo to Alexandria is 2–5$ or 10$ for 1st class

I may be delusional but I really think Somalis could afford it, but the government obviously couldn't

If Somalis can afford minibuses, city buses, and all the other transport options they already use daily, then trains wouldn’t be out of reach either. Somalia has a pretty active transport and logistics sector as it is.


That said, I think it’s something the middle class would lean into more regularly at least at first.

 

[Idilinaa]

Yeah I've been seeing more of these articles. Its just weird considering all the negotiations going on between the imf and Ethiopia. I guess the world bank guys dont care about what the imf guys are doing.

They apparently put the 3.4 billion IMF bail out on hold

 

[Idilinaa]

Certain Ethiopians are exposing their own government @novanova

 

[Idilinaa]

@Barkhadle1520 @novanova

He is punishing them for trying to survive, waa dad naxariis ka maqan