ethiopia insight:Oromo and Amhara nationalisms are on steroids.

[tyrannicalmanager]

this some of the most devasted critic on the state of ethiopia.

Crowded madness
Meanwhile, Oromo and Amhara nationalisms are on steroids, vying to outcompete each other. They are at each other’s throats over the status of Addis Ababa. The result of the recent turmoil and decades of mismanagement is that Ethiopia under Abiy is now a multinational federation threatening to implode. Superficial Western accolades and domestic adulation for the ‘reformist leader’ will not prevent it going the way of Yugoslavia, unless sincere efforts are made to belatedly hold free and fair elections according to the constitutional schedule, to safeguard self-determination rights, and, somehow, restore the rule of law.

Mikhail Gorbachev too won the Nobel Peace Prize on the eve of the dissolution of the Soviet Union. But, arguably, the gravest threat to Ethiopia is not actually dissolution, but a widening level of atrocities, even perhaps expanding to genocide. As Scott Straus painstakingly laid out in The Order of Genocide, three main factors made the specter of genocide a reality in Rwanda: civil war, which made ordinary citizens fear for their security and provided a rationale for mobilization; state penetration deep into the periphery that made mobilization of rural populations possible; and pre-existing ethnic cleavages that made it possible for the Hutu to accept hard-liners’ call for lethal action.

War played by far the most important role, as it opened a Pandora’s Box of “security dilemmas”, which include a series of conflict related dynamics. William Zartman notes that“Genocide.. do not break out unannounced; they are preceded and prepared by identity conflicts that escalate into targeted mass killing…such conflict does not generally stem from an aggressive action, but a pathologically defensive reaction against a perceived existential threat. Instigators of identity conflict feel themselves targeted, ultimately for extermination, by another identity group who they feel must be defeated and ultimately exterminated, and so, in a security dilemma, they themselves target the perceived threateners for extermination.” Zartman emphasizes these dynamics make it easy for political entrepreneurs to “sell this fear to their client public to gain support.” And these dynamics, these security dilemmas are becoming visible in Ethiopia.

rest of the article https://www.ethiopia-insight.com/2020/02/09/national-pride-national-shame/

 

[Helios]

All out civil war in Ethiopia can't happen. Too many foreign stakeholders that will hold it together

 

[Medulla]

Oromo's will win, their political and social influence has increased a lot in recent years. Amharas are upset they are losing complete control of the country and can't stand the idea of another ethnic group coming to power. Also they have resorted to using Religous difference as political weapons on eachother smh. Killings in Mosques by amharic terrorists is on the rise too.

 

[Abba Sadacha]

WE Oromos can never lose to Amharas, unless we weaken ourselves like our somali brethren did, by being divided. But I doubt that will happen.

 

[Helios]

WE Oromos can never lose to Amharas, unless we weaken ourselves like our somali brethren did, by being divided. But I doubt that will happen.

I hope one starts and you guys can topple the Amharas with our help too, then we can civilly sit and discuss our regional borders in the carcass known as Ethiopia

 

[Medulla]

I hope one starts and you guys can topple the Amharas with our help too, then we can civilly sit and discuss our regional borders in the carcass known as Ethiopia

Won't happen we control the goverment pointless conflict isn't on abiys mind he has the amharas at bay whilst taking over all sectors. The defintion of a real geeljire!

 

[Helios]

Won't happen we control the goverment pointless conflict isn't on abiys mind he has the amharas at bay whilst taking over all sectors. The defintion of a real geeljire!

All out Ethnic conflict is always on the table

 

[Medulla]

All out Ethnic conflict is always on the table

All 80? Lol only 5 matter in this fight and only one really controls the goverment now we are fine.Ethiopia won't do a Somalia and breakoff into 100 pieces the people wouldn't let that happen

 

[Helios]

All 80? Lol only 5 matter in this fight and only one really controls the goverment now we are fine.Ethiopia won't do a Somalia and breakoff into 100 pieces the people wouldn't let that happen

No I just mean a referendum for the parts that matter. Oromia and the Somali lands getting to bounce but America prob won't allow it

 

[Medulla]

No I just mean a referendum for the parts that matter. Oromia and the Somali lands getting to bounce but America prob won't allow it

The Somali State is being given power to govern itself and I'm pretty sure It can have a referendum in five years if it chooses it will most likely stay with ethiopia. Oromia is in charge of ethiopia why would it break off now it's in the best position of it's life XD

 

[tyrannicalmanager]

WE Oromos can never lose to Amharas, unless we weaken ourselves like our somali brethren did, by being divided. But I doubt that will happen.

i sympathise when comes your people struggle for self determination and removing a identity that was forced upon you, but i can never trully give my 1
full support to oromo nationalism because of teritorial claim in thes omali region.
if want refute this notion have i have, i'm open to.

 

[Abba Sadacha]

I hope one starts and you guys can topple the Amharas with our help too, then we can civilly sit and discuss our regional borders in the carcass known as Ethiopia

we will just make the disputed lands a special zone- and call it an oromali zone, or somoromo lol zone.
the working languages will be: somali, oromo, and perhaps english.
and the administration will be in accordance to the population, i.e. if there's 43 percent oromo and 47 percent somalis in a village, the positions in the local govt shall reflect that.
and the head of such govt will rotate every 3-4 years, for one term, an oromo rules, the next, a somali.
i actually wanna record a short podcast episode on this entitled: ''my proposal to solve the territorial disputes between two brotherly nations: oromos and somalis.

 

[Abba Sadacha]

i sympathise when comes your people struggle for self determination and removing a identity that was forced upon you, but i can never trully give my 1
full support to oromo nationalism because of teritorial claim in thes omali region.
if want refute this notion have i have, i'm open to.
View attachment 94143

Unfortunately we have extremists on both sides, we have somalis who claim oromo lands, and we have oromos who claim somali lands.
we need to give a voice to the moderate ones, empower them, and ignore or disregard the extremists, InshaaAllah!

 

[Helios]

we will just make the disputed lands a special zone- and call it an oromali zone, or somoromo lol zone.
the working languages will be: somali, oromo, and perhaps english.
and the administration will be in accordance to the population, i.e. if there's 43 percent oromo and 47 percent somalis in a village, the positions in the local govt shall reflect that.
and the head of such govt will rotate every 3-4 years, for one term, an oromo rules, the next, a somali.
i actually wanna record a short podcast episode on this entitled: ''my proposal to solve the territorial disputes between two brotherly nations: oromos and somalis.

As long as we get Harar and Dir Dhaba you guys can keep whatever lines the Amharas drew for our peoples. I'm not pushing for any more than what we already control atm. Hatred between our people is more political tbh there isn't a deep seated distrust unlike with the Amharas

 

[Abba Sadacha]

As long as we get Harar and Dir Dhaba you guys can keep whatever lines the Amharas drew for our peoples. I'm not pushing for any more than what we already control atm. Hatred between our people is more political tbh there isn't a deep seated distrust unlike with the Amharas

dire dhawa has to be shared too. it's very diverse, it has many Christians too, we cannot just expel them or what have you.
harar should be its own state, we oromo and somalis have large lands, why should we claim theirs? let the hararis have their own state, afterall, they are our brothers/sisters in Islam and in blood.

 

[tyrannicalmanager]

@Abba Sadacha
despite our people having dispute over land i think we have some common ground when comes to amhara squatters
infesting our land. i hope we solve these disputes so we can clean-up our land from amhara.
anyway what's your opinion on abiy ahmed?

 

[Helios]

dire dhawa has to be shared too. it's very diverse, it has many Christians too, we cannot just expel them or what have you.
harar should be its own state, we oromo and somalis have large lands, why should we claim theirs? let the hararis have their own state, afterall, they are our brothers/sisters in Islam and in blood.

Won't expell anyone tbh it should be a commercial hub for us you and whatever is left of the Amhara. Harar can vote but it has a long history with being ruled by us

 

[Abba Sadacha]

@Abba Sadacha
despite our people having dispute over land i think we have some common ground when comes to amhara squatters
infesting our land. i hope we solve these disputes so we can clean-up our land from amhara.
anyway what's your opinion on abiy ahmed?

we are from the same clan, but i am an oromo before i claim my particular clan.
I don't quite trust him, but prefer him over the previous govt, and think it'll take more time to truly judge his rule. like most humans, I think the taste of power, has gotten to him, and to maintain it; he'd do almost anything. i also believe that him being raised in amhara areas, having an amhara wife, has had an obvious effect on him.
he made some good moves, i.e. making peace with eritrea, making an alliance with somalia, facilitating the use of berbera port for oromia and somali state in ethiopia, and so on.

 

[Abba Sadacha]

''Both the Oromo and their Somali cousins belong also fundamentally to the same eastern Hamitic branch of the Caucasic division.
Of all Hamitic peoples, the Oromos, who call themselves Ilm'Orma, ''Sons of the Brave,'' are by far the most numerous, being estimated at from 7 to 8 Million, spread over a territory of some 400,000 square miles, including the whole of South Ethiopia, [Oromo-land proper], besides large tracts in Northern Ethiopia/Abyssinia, and most of the little known region which extends through the Lake Rudolf [Samburu] depression to and beyond the Tana River.
The typical Oromos of Kaffa and surrounding uplands are perhaps the finest people in all Africa, tall, of shapely build with high broad foreheads, well-formed mouth, Roman nose, oval face, coppery or light chocolate colour, black kinky hair, often worn in ''finger curls,'' or short ringlets round the head-altogether noble representatives of the Caucasic family.
In general the Oromo features are quite European, and even the complexion is no darker than in some districts than that of the Andalusian peasantry.
The Somalis also, whose domain compromises nearly the whole of the eastern Horn of Africa, ''are a very handsome race, of good physique, with excellent features.''

[Ethnology: In Two Parts: I. Fundamental Ethnical Problems. II. The Primary Ethnical Groups
Book by Augustus Henry Keane
Pages 387-388]




hmmm

 

[Tukraq]

All out civil war in Ethiopia can't happen. Too many foreign stakeholders that will hold it together

Foreigners have no control over a fed up populace