OPINION Confederations don’t work

[DR OSMAN]

@Periplus even if your shown models of confederation u will argue oh well they don't work now but ignore they kept the peace and stability for 100 years. China and Hong Kong are great examples of a confederation under the '2 system one nation model' with China only in charge of military matters, where-as everything else is hong kong management.

The UAE is essentially a confederacy and workin just fine as separate emirates and they only 1 million people, you want bring some-how 10-15 million peope into one system after a civil war along tribal lines and wonderfully overlook 'tribe' as part of any solution will end in destruction.

As the somali saying goes 'gurigisa ha soo dhisto, aniguna gaygi' markas in la wada hadlo anigu ceeb uma arki then.

I understand your concern that we need to adopt a model that fits within the guidelines of a one nation model but this can mean we adopt a confederacy, federation or even a 'hybrid' model, where a people existing in state-less vacuums are given 'treaties' they must abide by and the state model excluded for them similar to the native indians in america and their nature park reserves ileen 'xoolo weeye' dawlad diid ah marka waxaa loo mamula dadkasi sida xoolaha under the livestock ministry.

 

[Periplus]

@Periplus even if your shown models of confederation u will argue oh well they don't work now but ignore they kept the peace and stability for 100 years. China and Hong Kong are great examples of a confederation under the '2 system one nation model' with China only in charge of military matters, where-as everything else is hong kong management.

China and Hong Kong is not a confederation abut I’ll indulge you.

It didn’t even take 20 years for China to start violating the “confederacy”.

The whole point of their system is one country two systems but Hong Kong does not have one man one vote and arrests protestors under outrageous charges.

China has interfered in Hong Kong to the point that the underlying point of their separation, maintaining democracy in HK, doesn’t exist anymore.

If that isn’t a failure, I do not know what is.

 

[wheel]

@Periplus even if your shown models of confederation u will argue oh well they don't work now but ignore they kept the peace and stability for 100 years. China and Hong Kong are great examples of a confederation under the '2 system one nation model' with China only in charge of military matters, where-as everything else is hong kong management.

The UAE is essentially a confederacy and workin just fine as separate emirates and they only 1 million people, you want bring some-how 10-15 million peope into one system after a civil war along tribal lines and wonderfully overlook 'tribe' as part of any solution will end in destruction.

Would you have the federal government be in charge of military matters for Puntland?
Would you be in favour of a model similar to the US system of federalism in Somalia?

 

[reer]

Listen walaal,

If you can find 2 confederations that was able to last over 2 decades, your point is valid.

Nearly every confederation collapses after 10 years.

Somalia will not be able to swiftly transition if a confederacy collapses like other countries. We will quickly descend into another civil war.

What you are arguing for is another civil war within a decade.

somalia would be a collective selective dictatorship in a lebanon-esque state.

 

[DR OSMAN]

Would you have the federal government be in charge of military matters for Puntland?
Would you be in favour of a model similar to the US system of federalism in Somalia?

No. The only time I urge PL to hold discussions of power-sharing n revenue sharing with the center is when the south has attained the following milestones.

1. Security and reliable and provable peace which requires tribal reconciliation among them
2. Law and Order not just 'criminal' law n order but civilian and state law n order mechanism such as supreme court, constitutional court, etc
3. Instutition stability be it ministries, parliament, govt agencies that are based on laws not based on bribes
4. Democracy, all public office must be voted in by the people
5. Economic revival

I am sorry @Periplus untill those conditions are seen in the south, what you are asking for is going to fall on deaf ears. I want a Somali system that represents it's social structure similiar to how china says 'communism with chinese characteristics' I want a federalism with 'tribal characteristics' because tribe is our social strucuture, our social structure isn't like western or chinese people, any system that avoids 'somali charisterics' system is bound to fail. Come in puntites @Pwyneth Galtrow @FBIsomalia

 

[DR OSMAN]

Where are the confederationist. A great confederate model supporter were @FBIsomalia @Pwyneth Galtrow why am I stuck holding this camp alive, come out confederates and throw in why this is the best model for Somalia

 

[Periplus]

@DR OSMAN

Tribalism is the destruction of Somalia.

It is a tool used by governments to divide and conquer the population.

As long as qabiil exists, then governments will use it as a tool to gain support.

Even if we have one man one vote, political parties will use qabiilist messaging to win marginal seats.

 

[DR OSMAN]

@DR OSMAN

Tribalism is the destruction of Somalia.

It is a tool used by governments to divide and conquer the population.

As long as qabiil exists, then governments will use it as a tool to gain support.

Even if we have one man one vote, political parties will use qabiilist messaging to win marginal seats.

A government as 'gaas' wisely said needs to discuss 'separation of power' and 'division of power'. Division of power is federalism between states n the center while at the state level it's how power is shared by the states and the districts either thru centralisation or decentralisation models.

PL has adopted a de-centralisation model of governance that is bottom up meaning all policies and economic implementation is carried out by districts.

But what is hardly spoken of is 'seperation' of powers between the executive, parliament, and courts, Somalia still is 'madax ka nool' and not 'institution ku nool'. Institutions are critical elements because it doesn't rely on one person but on a set of laws that govern it which is acountable to the people and is predictable, a state that is unpredictable due to madax ka nool are usually not economically viable either becuz no-one knows where it's heading tommorow let alone 30-50 years.

 

[Periplus]

A government as 'gaas' wisely said needs to discuss 'separation of power' and 'division of power'. Division of power is federalism between states n the center while at the state level it's how power is shared by the states and the districts either thru centralisation or decentralisation models.

PL has adopted a de-centralisation model of governance that is bottom up meaning all policies and economic implementation is carried out by districts.

But what is hardly spoken of is 'seperation' of powers between the executive, parliament, and courts, Somalia still is 'madax ka nool' and not 'institution ku nool'. Institutions are critical elements because it doesn't rely on one person but on a set of laws that govern it which is acountable to the people and is predictable, a state that is unpredictable due to madax ka nool are usually not economically viable either becuz no-one knows where it's heading tommorow let alone 30-50 years.

Yes, I agree with you. Somalia’s political class needs to hold their head in shame.

However, if qabiil continues to exist then qabiilism will exist.

Similar to how parties vie for the Black vote, political parties back home will vie for tribe votes.

You will see more blatant tribalism in election campaigns.

 

[DR OSMAN]

@Periplus Somalia had a civil war along tribal lines which is the social structure of the people. Any system not accomodating Somali characteristics into their government model is doom to fail as it's not addressing the social structure of it's people and it allows for tribal anomosity to re-emerge.

 

[Periplus]

@Periplus Somalia had a civil war along tribal lines which is the social structure of the people. Any system not accomodating Somali characteristics into their government model is doom to fail as it's not addressing the social structure of it's people and it allows for tribal anomosity to re-emerge.

I will make this extremely simple walaal.

Somalia is the only country in the world to completely collapse and become dysfunctional.

That means whatever destroyed Somalia is something unique to Somalia.

Qabiilism is that.

I do not give a f*ck about Somali characteristics. We are one of the poorest nations on earth, I will throw the entire Somali culture in the bin if it means we develop.

 

[DR OSMAN]

@Periplus A government that is not based representing it's social structure, will collapse within itself as the people will no longer support it, corruption will be the first signs of doom which will slowly lead to armed rebellion and eventual state collapse.

A somali economy to develop needs a govt system that the people itself recognize and support, if it's a foreign system to them, don't expect they will preserve it but more likely ruin it.

I call for strong Somali characteristics to be embedded into our emerging federal system not western(economical fuedal classes) or eastern(islamist or religious systems) none of those systems represent our social structure and therefore isn't viable in the long-term.

I also demand economic development just like you do but before economic is developed. You really need the following in place.

1. A govt based on a set of laws agreed to by the people(constitution) which is monitored and controlled by higher courts.

2. Institutions that follow the rule of law and is predictable and repeatable similar to 'elections' how it's predictable n repeatable, well our instutitions be it ministries, parliament, civil n criminal courts need to be reliable, predictable, repeatable. Without this it's impossible to forecast that country's economic growth because any madax ka nool idiot can just implement something and then some other idiot reverses it and it's a continous instability which businesses do not like.

Those two elements are absolutely necessary for any economic development as they lead to accountability for the ppl n businesss thru(civil n criminal courts) while govts r answerable to the ppl thru elections and also is accountable to constitutional courts. It's like a well oiled machine of checks n balances.

 

[DR OSMAN]

@Periplus to avoid qabiil problems bottom up decentralization is the best method. It leads to competition between districts, it's not a single point of collapse, and most importantly those districts have the right to tell you what they want not some asshole sitting in hamar telling them what's good for them.

In a democracy, Somali leaders need to understand your not 'madaxwayne' but 'shaqaale shacab' your a servant to the public and it's them who tells you what they want not you or farmajo or hsm or any other goon.

These central leaning goons want some central authority figure telling the nation what it needs and where it's heading thru top-down strucure, that's not accountability to the 'ppl' that is some silly 'MSB govt culture' of governance. I hope that generation from MSB die away.

 

[DR OSMAN]

@Periplus one of the key weaknesses in Somalia is the ppl not fearing the law, this is also seen in public office, untill we have a system based on rule of law and everyone is under the law and everybody fears each other based on those laws, we will not develop, wat will happen is corruption and eventual poverty.

When I go to PL, one of the first areas im observing is the rule of law be it civilian to civilian or criminal law system and then assessing the constitutional court and how it functions and if it's truly effective in monitoring ppl in government positions. I will rate where PL is in terms of these critical law based institutions.

 

[Gantaal97]

This true federalism in Germany is also mostly based on historical identity and borders that existed before unification, i think the same in Malaysia or the US which was multiple British colonies. No such thing exists in Somalia because before we were a state since we all coalesced and identified with our qabiil, that's the only borders that exist and matter to Somalis.

You're conflicting Qabil with ethnicity it's oxymoronic to establish states based on Qabil and no one wants that as that could lead to crippled state with tribal conflicts.

 

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I will make this extremely simple walaal.

Somalia is the only country in the world to completely collapse and become dysfunctional.

That means whatever destroyed Somalia is something unique to Somalia.

Qabiilism is that.

I do not give a f*ck about Somali characteristics. We are one of the poorest nations on earth, I will throw the entire Somali culture in the bin if it means we develop.

You're conflicting Qabil with ethnicity it's oxymoronic to establish states based on Qabil and no one wants that as that could lead to crippled state with tribal conflicts.

Tribalism =/= Tribe
Racism =/= Race
Sectarianism =/= Sect

Many of the worlds greatest empires and states were built based on accommodating demands and planning around the requirements of qabiils. The Quraysh became the head and the Ansar their ministers. Is that immoral?

We have to power share and we only have one method of grouping, clans/states.

 

[Hassan Garguute Buldanana]

Any other system will fail with the current crop of leadership.

However, confederation will fail regardless of leadership.

That’s the difference.

The leader could be a saint and still it won’t work.

 

[Periplus]

The leader could be a saint and still it won’t work.

Hence, why confederations are failures.

At least with a federation, you can make it work if you have good leaders.

 

[Hassan Garguute Buldanana]

Hence, why confederations are failures.

At least with a federation, you can make it work if you have good leaders.

No system will work

 

[Periplus]

When I go to PL, one of the first areas im observing is the rule of law be it civilian to civilian or criminal law system and then assessing the constitutional court and how it functions and if it's truly effective in monitoring ppl in government positions. I will rate where PL is in terms of these critical law based institutions.

Ill be honest with you, people don’t even respect the traffic lights in Garowe.

However, PL is teaching the people about institutions and democracy.