I cannot imagine ethiopia ever collapsing. They have a very unique federal structure where there isn't a single point of collapse, plus the people feel free and rule themselves autonomously. I worry for eritrea, what are they going to do when they make peace with ethiopia? what's going to keep their central authority united? I see tribal or sectarian violence occurring there depending on what foreign country gets involved. If arabs get involved they will definitely use the muslim card to cause division with christians, if ethiopians get inside they will use the tribal card to cause them to collapse. Eritrea isn't built to last, just like south sudan wasn't. South sudan was built on 'north sudan hatred' and when north sudan left the picture, guess what? nothing left to unite their tribal society!!! Don't think somaliland isn't immune to that either same narrative(somalia hate) and if somalia is out of picture, umm u guessed it!!!!
Puntland I guess was smart to keep the union alive, I could see this happening even in Puntland if there wasn't some sort of external 'southern' enemy to keep us united!!! If they the south weren't there, umm you guessed it!!!