Can someone explain to me the situation in Gedo right now ?
- Thread starter Namekian
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Abdisamad
VIP
Two Marehan sides are fighting over control of Gedo, one side is with Madobe/Jubaland, the other side is with Muqdisho (HSM), HSM and Madobe have a political disagreement which turned into an armed conflict.. HSM wants to create a parallel JL government in Gedo, then hold his one man one vote elections in Gedo to later claim he made the elections in Jubaland, but Madobe is trying to prevent that.. The Marexan militias are very poor so naturally they extremely unreliable and would join which ever side is paying them the most. At the moment HSM is probably paying better than Madobe why he's losing in Gedo.
If HSM does get his way and he overpowers Madobes backed militia how does 1m1v in one region of Jubaland help HSM get re elected? You still have Middle Juba which is under AS and Lower Juba which is under Madobe.
Its all for show he wants to make Gedo the official admin and be able to obfuscate and say he held elections in JL.
In addition to Benadir province, HS, KG and GM states he wants to add Gedo and Sool into the mix (both still officially part of Jubaland and Puntland respectively according to the federal constitution) and claim he successfully held 1m1v elections in all federal member states and thus his ‘popularly elected new government’ is legitimate.
His plan is to become the Ismail Omar Gelle of Somalia and establish a similar kleptocratic, dynastic dictatorship.
Abdisamad
VIP
That you need to ask HSM, he's so corrupted that he thinks holding election in less than quarter of the country is good enough for his plans, he also changed the constitution to grant himself an extension after his presidential term expires.. He doesn't care about anything as long as he can stay in muqdisho and claim the kursi while enriching himself through corruption..
I never understood why any Marehan would want to side with Madobe/Jubaland, Clearly the past 14 years proved that Blackee is only Interested in Getting Rich and not fighting alshabaab
I’m
Who do you do you think will ultimately win this whole thing? Also If it’s Marehan vs Marehan right now what are the chances Madoobe could involve the Cawlyahan forces who are also in Gedo?
This makes sense why the opposition candidates were silent on congratulating Waqoyi Bari state formations.
how does HSM envision 1m1v because its clear AS controls plenty of territory in the south does he just want the capitals of the FMS voting?
The Cawlyahan in Gedo/Middle-Jubba are embedded into AS not JL. Gedo will bounce back and forth indefinitely I wouldnt pay it any mind.
HSM will attempt to usurp JL entirely I expect that to fall on its face because it serves nobody else for HSM to steal those votes.
Cawlyahan? There is no Cawlyahan in Gedo our border is in Diif aka Northern Af Madow district. The only Marexaan the ogadenis border is Talxe who stretch deep into Lower Jubba.
Look at this video from JLTV talking about skirmishes between clan millita. The ogadenis have done really good job with their propaganda. Reminds me of some other folks who try to hold onto the narrative no matter what. Diif is closer to Dhobley than it is to Geriley, the MP allocation in parliament needs to be adjusted minimum 60% of MPs need to be Marehan and that would be generous to the minoritiy clans in the state like Ogadenis and the like.
“There is a drought, there are problems, the people moved and came here as the blessings(rain) came to the Kuumade clan so the people got up and moved. A drought brought them, we are born together as family so what is wanted is mercy to them(the nomads) as Allah gave his blessings...”
This is a two part meeting in Dhoobley/Geriley after 3 Marexaan were killed due to grazing in Ogaden country during a drought lol. We sent Col. Cabaas to take the impoverished back to Gedo
Abaq
VIP
Some Marehans are allergic to the truth. I don't know what they think spreading lies on the internet will do for them.
You seriously believe the fantasy your elders are telling to the news? We know where our border is and Northern Af Madow district is marexaan inhabitanted. As well as the other area surrounding it in Kismayo district and the rest of Lower Jubba.
Ironic coming from the guy who claims Fadhigaaradle belongs to the Ogadeni people.
Its usually something obvious or falsifiable aswell.
All that and JL is an Ogaden entity today. Actions speak louder than words.
I translated a portion of your own source. Nobody told you to use it.
“Northern Afmadow” is Xagar and beyond that is Salagle. If you settled both and Kismayo district the Marexaan must be proper cucks to be stuck in a few towns in Gedo for 10+ years.
I used the video is illustrate my point bud. When we fight, we fight at Diif and Dhobley area. When I said we settle Northern Af Madow district I was specifically talking about our nomadic population, the largest nomadic population in the state is in Gedo and the areas we settle all the border or Gedo and Middle Jubba and Lower Jubba. If you add our Nomads elsewhere in the state like the area around Kismayo district it only boosts our numbers more. Whether you believe it or not cagdheer are among the minority clans in the state. You've benefited massively from a series of unfortunate events that has befallen the Marexaan + an AS buffer state in between. We all know you people were irrelevant before you came and piggybacked on Kenyan force.
In due time, either by force and political necessity or by democracy you people will be exposed.
Justice is never ending in it's pursuit of criminals.
Even the academics now this.
Also don't you claim to settle the entirety of lower jubba and middle Jubba? You are supposedly the majority in 2 gobols and also live (this is what I've gathered from you and you cagdheer friend's posts during my time here, thought we all knows it's false.) and unlike Marexaan Reer Gedo you don't have any internal opposition or division and yet you've been unable to go 20kms past Kismayo in the direction of goobweyn.
Except the video didnt prove your point it literally proved the opposite. 3 MX were killed in Diif and they allegedly retaliated on Nomads around Geriley. If you knew Somali you’d know it indicates Ogadens in Geriley aswell which contradicts your whole world view lol
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Everything else you’ve written up here is literally garbage you’ve read off of somnet or x and want to share.
Weird. Im pretty sure the guy we kicked out didnt mention Kenya at all…actually the date is 2008 when did KDF come again?
No, we don’t. We aren’t Hawiye who are starved for land. We settle south of Bardheere west of the river and Buaale.
MX, Cadcad, and Bantus are alone in claiming a majority in cities but being sidelined by another qabiil. We have plenty of internal opposition and they support AS.
Wouldn't that mean your people are contradicting themselves? According to your elders there was a drought and the MX were forced to come to Ogadenis lands because of it yet for some reason there are supposedly Ogadeni Nomads in Geriley. What your elders claimed is a falsity and there is a reason why JLTV gave prime time to them to spout their lies. I think the word you used -allegedly- is perfect because there is no proof to suggest there was any Ogadenis near Geriley to begin with.
1. We know the demographics of Geriley area and it's purely Marehan.
2. There was supposedly a drought in Marehan lands forcing them to come to Ogadeni lands (really the land that is already settled by Marehan but still claimed by ogaden)
3. The ogadenis supposedly left their barwaaqo and came to the "dought ridden" Marehan lands leaving their own heaven
We have settlements in Kismayo district like Qudus and Berhani and many more as well as MX urban population in Kismayo which is undoubtedly the plurality if not the outright majority.
You act as if Marehan weren't on both sides of the battle. The Khalid Ibn Walid brigades were instrumental in the Islamists takeover of the city. We all know nobody took the ogadenis serious before MX ICU/Shabab joined them.Weird. Im pretty sure the guy we kicked out didnt mention Kenya at all…actually the date is 2008 when did KDF come again?
It was Marehan Vs Marehan & Ogaden war.
You could say the exact same for every clan but unlike Ogadenis Marehan non Shabab or also divided into.
Local/FGS/JL/AS/Itoobiyan. This is partly the fault of Marehan themselves but also many other factors including outside influence. MX in Kismayo are cut off from Marehan in Gedo and Middle Jubba and Northern Af Madow but Shabab, Ogadenis and the other clans that settle the Jubba valley. They can't purchase weapons or organise millitas because they are surrounded by kab iyo lax on all sides. Hell they can't even hold celebrations for shit like clan flag days because once again Madobe guddomiyaha degmada Kismayo is always keeping an eye on them and playing divide and rule.
No, because migrations in drought aren’t uniform. Lets operate like nothing is obvious because clearly most Mx are bad faith.Wouldn't that mean your people are contradicting themselves? According to your elders there was a drought and the MX were forced to come to Ogadenis lands because of it yet for some reason there are supposedly Ogadeni Nomads in Geriley. What your elders claimed is a falsity and there is a reason why JLTV gave prime time to them to spout their lies. I think the word you used -allegedly- is perfect because there is no proof to suggest there was any Ogadenis near Geriley to begin with.
1. We know the demographics of Geriley area and it's purely Marehan.
2. There was supposedly a drought in Marehan lands forcing them to come to Ogadeni lands (really the land that is already settled by Marehan but still claimed by ogaden)
3. The ogadenis supposedly left their barwaaqo and came to the "dought ridden" Marehan lands leaving their own heaven
We have settlements in Kismayo district like Qudus and Berhani and many more as well as MX urban population in Kismayo which is undoubtedly the plurality if not the outright majority.
You act as if Marehan weren't on both sides of the battle. The Khalid Ibn Walid brigades were instrumental in the Islamists takeover of the city. We all know nobody took the ogadenis serious before MX ICU/Shabab joined them.
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View attachment 370985
It was Marehan Vs Marehan & Ogaden war.
You could say the exact same for every clan but unlike Ogadenis Marehan non Shabab or also divided into.
Local/FGS/JL/AS/Itoobiyan. This is partly the fault of Marehan themselves but also many other factors including outside influence. MX in Kismayo are cut off from Marehan in Gedo and Middle Jubba and Northern Af Madow but Shabab, Ogadenis and the other clans that settle the Jubba valley. They can't purchase weapons or organise millitas because they are surrounded by kab iyo lax on all sides. Hell they can't even hold celebrations for shit like clan flag days because once again Madobe guddomiyaha degmada Kismayo is always keeping an eye on them and playing divide and rule.
Things that are proven…
- Ogadens have been the main clan in Kismayo(Italian Census)
- MX have no real history in Kismayo(Italian Census)
- The Cawrmale have sporadic clashes but never from the supposed Mx plurality and they arent connected to any gobol(Refer to map)
- Turki and Madoobe took Hiraale out of Kismayo using almost entirely Ogaden muscle(See Ex. 1.1-1.2)
- Hiraale admits himself that he was taken out by “Kablalax” and “ONLF” not Mx v. MX lol(Catoosh interview)
- There are Ogadens to retaliate against in Geriley and the MX came to Diif as Barakac(See previous post)
- The MX used ENDF to get back into Kismayo and still failed to hold it(See Ex. 1.3)
- Hiraale and his people fled from Kismayo and Berhani not stopping until they reached Baardheere(See Ex 1.4 and Catoosh interview)
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