Burkina Faso makes more in revenue from Gold than all Somali states combined

[Zak12]

They were inside mogadishu before foreign powers helped push them out, and just look at all the land they own, i can guarantee you if they manage to besiege xamar again you will see all the politicians on the first flight

Yes we know that Mogadishu was controlled by them until 2011 but that was back when Al-Shabab was an actual formidable force. They were having major losses from 2012-2013 which forced them to transition into a guerilla movement that could now only take villages and bases.

To prove my point, here is an analysis from westpoint from last year that assesses the capabilities of the SNA and Al-Shabab. It pretty much states what we already know: that Al-Shabab is militarily stronger and more cohesive than SNA. However, they make it very clear that Somalia is unlikely to face an Afghanistan situation.

The Somali National Army Versus al-Shabaab: A Net Assessment - Combating Terrorism Center at West Point

Abstact: An important question for the future of Somalia is if the African Union withdraws the remainder of its forces from the country by December 31, 2024, would the Somali National Army (SNA) or al-Shabaab be stronger militarily? According to a net assessment conducted by the author across...

ctc.westpoint.edu

In Somalia, the ATMIS exit raises legitimate security concerns, but a similarly rapid and complete collapse of the SNA and total victory for al-Shabaab is unlikely. Not only would the SNA retain significant external security assistance from the United States, Turkey, the European Union, UAE, Qatar, the United Kingdom, and other countries, but ATMIS’ departure would undermine a key element of al-Shabaab propaganda. Moreover, the SNA already endured the partial withdrawal of a key security partner when the Trump administration removed most of the roughly 700 U.S. troops from Somalia in December 2020. The impact on the SNA was not positive but nor was it catastrophic: The United States retained its logistical, training, and mentorship support packages, and many of the withdrawn troops continued “commuting to work” from the wider region and Europe. In May 2022, the Biden administration redeployed some 450 U.S. soldiers to Somalia. The issue at hand is whether the departure of ATMIS could be more consequential.

 

[Barkhadle1520]

Yes we know that Mogadishu was controlled by them until 2011 but that was back when Al-Shabab was an actual formidable force. They were having major losses from 2012-2013 which forced them to transition into a guerilla movement that could now only take villages and bases.

To prove my point, here is an analysis from westpoint from last year that assesses the capabilities of the SNA and Al-Shabab. It pretty much states what we already know: that Al-Shabab is militarily stronger and more cohesive than SNA. However, they make it very clear that Somalia is unlikely to face an Afghanistan situation.

The Somali National Army Versus al-Shabaab: A Net Assessment - Combating Terrorism Center at West Point

Abstact: An important question for the future of Somalia is if the African Union withdraws the remainder of its forces from the country by December 31, 2024, would the Somali National Army (SNA) or al-Shabaab be stronger militarily? According to a net assessment conducted by the author across...

ctc.westpoint.edu

In Somalia, the ATMIS exit raises legitimate security concerns, but a similarly rapid and complete collapse of the SNA and total victory for al-Shabaab is unlikely. Not only would the SNA retain significant external security assistance from the United States, Turkey, the European Union, UAE, Qatar, the United Kingdom, and other countries, but ATMIS’ departure would undermine a key element of al-Shabaab propaganda. Moreover, the SNA already endured the partial withdrawal of a key security partner when the Trump administration removed most of the roughly 700 U.S. troops from Somalia in December 2020. The impact on the SNA was not positive but nor was it catastrophic: The United States retained its logistical, training, and mentorship support packages, and many of the withdrawn troops continued “commuting to work” from the wider region and Europe. In May 2022, the Biden administration redeployed some 450 U.S. soldiers to Somalia. The issue at hand is whether the departure of ATMIS could be more consequential.

Lol they only had like 2500 at that time theyre way stronger now, and he is right in assuming al shabab cant take over mogadishu now but as i said if foreign countries decided to not support somalia anymore which will happen in the next decade, al shabaab will definitely have chances at taking over

 

[Zak12]

Lol they only had like 2500 at that time theyre way stronger now, and he is right in assuming al shabab cant take over mogadishu now but as i said if foreign countries decided to not support somalia anymore which will happen in the next decade, al shabaab will definitely have chances at taking over

SNA is over twice the size of AS but numbers aren't important here, its morale and training.

America, Turkey and Qatar defintely aren't stopping support anytime soon but a decade will be enough for a government reform.

 

[Midas]

I've said this before on another thread several days ago. But if you legitimately think traroe is somehow changing burkina faso and is some super leader. Your opinions on politics can be safely ignored.

 

[Idilinaa]

Bit of a fancy way to say youre gonne fall back into mooryan times, No foreign troops= Weaker FGS= faster al shabaab victory (which already owns more lands than fgs btw)

If they move to mobilize domestic revenue sources, it would actually strengthen their local legitimacy.

Let’s not forget the warlords of the past were largely funded by outsiders. Their only domestic “revenue” came from extortion at checkpoints. In contrast, the Islamic Courts Union (ICU), which defeated them, was funded by local donations and backed by the business community.

As for Al-Shabaab, they’re not as strong as people make them out to be. There was a whole thread breaking this down, they get easily routed by local militias(Ma'Wisley), and the Ethiopian army (despite its current internal challenges with Fano) handles them without much difficulty, not to mention the Somali Liyu Police/Regional police whenever Al-Shabaab tries to cross into Ethiopia.

They’re paper tigers in every sense of the word. What makes them appear powerful is the incompetence and dysfunction of the FGS, not any inherent strength on their part.

If we present a viable alternative to the current FGS administration and focus on strengthening local legitimacy, I genuinely believe things will start to shift in a positive direction , it won’t lead to an Al-Shabaab takeover.

 

[Neptune]

Traore is a special leader. He's setting the standard for Africa. In just 2 years he's made Burkina Faso $100 trillion in wealth

 

[Idilinaa]

Traore is a special leader. He's setting the standard for Africa. In just 2 years he's made Burkina Faso $100 trillion in wealth

View attachment 365470

I’ve never seen a leader so heavily glorified that people feel the need to exaggerate just to promote him. Most leaders, no matter who they are, usually face criticism

But I guess all it takes now is holding daily press conferences in military gear, shouting 'Go away France,' and you’ll get top-tier PR