AS- FGS war updates
- Thread starter Hurder
- Start date
Abdisamad
VIP
Abdisamad
VIP
Even an infant would make a better leader then the severely corrupted and nepotistic low iq Qoslaye.
Guys dont derail the thread with FKD. Only updates
tyrannicalmanager
pseudo-intellectual
some people are shocked that these people support a group carrying an Islamic flag over Christian bantus/Habesh.You mean balcad? Yeah
In all honesty, I could see shabaab telling them to come out and welcome them for the cameras on pain of death. Shabaab will only bring back the night dugsi as you knowYou mean balcad? Yeah
Its over if Mawaciisley doesn’t wanna fight. Next step for HSM is to sign off Ethiopia invading Somalia. To hold on to the seat longer
What a disaster. Absolute and utter disaster. Where are the folks who used to niiko to the cheap song dalxureeye?
FGS, back then as TNG was propped up and literally was able to exist only by the help of foreigners. The internationally recognised
”government” has had now close to 20 years to legitimase themselves by freeing themselves from the money of shisheeyes and actually help the citizens they claim to govern.
Nothing has changed. FGS is completely useless. I thought they were light at the end of the tunnel when arms embargo was dropped and SNA was clearing out AS from central Somalia without the help of foreigners but those gains have been lost.
AS started as organic grassroots movement and has continued to address real problems that plague ordinary rural somalis. This is why people are able to overlook their deviant and khawariji ways.
Let it all fall, there is unfortunately a bigger chance that AS grows brains then FGS. Complete idiots who only care about their next paycheck.
tyrannicalmanager
pseudo-intellectual
TNG was legit attempt at creating goverment, which was sabotage by Ethiopia and the warlords.
I agree, but this bringing Ethiopians after the MOU debacle is ridiculous.
I hate they're the only opposition against the crusaders, this has allow their ideology to be unchallenged for 2 decades.
I don't think this term applies to AS. they're definitely harsh against the Muslims, but they've shown to be the only group to retailiate against our "neighbors"
If AS wins i hope they become less harsh.
tyrannicalmanager
pseudo-intellectual
@tyrannicalmanager and @El Nino. Many people on this site think talking about the reality of the situation in South Somalia and constructive criticism of the Central government makes you an AS sympathiser.
Like the video @DivineMartial posted earlier of Balcad and the people celebrating. Is it a surprise? Would you pick moriyaan sna soldiers who until recently were well known and still to some extent for killing/stealing/raping, macwiisley who have set up isbaaro across the shabelle dhexe after being given guns and Burundi ajanabi soldiers v AS?
To some it might not be clear. The majority of the people are opposed to AS on the surface as Khawriij because of their suicide bombings, spilling blood of civilians and their harsh punishments on clans/towns that work with Federal gov and try to oppose them.
That's the theatre of war. But a lot of people try to ignore and brush under the carpet the governing side. Most of the South as I said earlier have come to hate and fear AS because of their severe violence, but at the same time the majority also believe that AS are better at governing and serve more social justice. A paradox right?
Ive lived in the South for long periods of time and I'm not gonna lie there is no proper organisation or form of government there. Its all kinda like a mafia ring, waxa ka buuxo tuugo iyo mooriyaan....be it In a government suit or soldiers uniform they are all corrupt.
The South you have to understand since the collapse of the Siyad Barre government there has been no real government. After the fall of Siyad Barre the south fell into clannism. Actually let me rewrite that, sorry to my Marexaan friends but during Siyad Barre's rule the fragile clan dynamics of Somali society further exacerbated. You have Siyad Barre becoming heavy handed and committing crimes against the clans of rebel groups such as SNM(Isaaq core), SSDF(MJ) and USC(Hawiye). Isaaq were not just bombed in the North, but in the south the place that is called Jazeera beach is were Marehaan and other Darood forces rounded up 40+ Isaaq men in Mogadishu and then took them to the beach to be killed. Hawiye faced random killings in Galmudug, Hiraan and Xamar by Siad Barre henchmen as well. Majeerteen also faced persecution, my mum used to work in Galkacyo one time and used to tell me how Siyad Barre soldiers would rape MJ women, and destroy their wells and drinking water.
Im not picking sides or blaming one tribe over another but i am talking about Somali society clan dynamics. The Siyad Barre government in hindsight seems like a utopia compared to our situation today, but if you look back it shows the real issue in Somalia and that is different clans can not possibly trust each other. Because if X clan gets in power it will lead to enrichment/corruption of X clan and abuse of power against other clans if they try to speak up for representation/equal rights.
Going back on the historical sociological arc. The abuse of power by Siyad Barre, his clan and other Darood factions(Dhulbahante im looking at you lol you're notorious in Xamar as Siyad Barre's henchman/killers and Morgan who was the face of MJ to Hawiye in Xamar in those days). The previous government fueled imo most of what has happened post 91 like it or not. Siyad Barre and a lot of Darood had the government on lock, high positions, wealth and power. Isaaq were left isolated in the North and had to come all the way to Mogadishu to get a passport, and Hawiye although indigenous to Xamar were no doubt a tier below Darood in the Xamar hierarchy.
All this frustration coupled with government killings and atrocities it festered clan frustrations...and when the USC entered Xamar instead of starting a reconciliation process and building a fair inclusive government....it instead turned into a witch-hunt...were all Darood were grouped together, civilian or not, young or old and we know the tragedies that happened to the Darood people that were living in Xamar at that time. Instead of the civilians being left alone, they were killed, raped and had their property stolen(Hawiye use justification by calling it taking back Booli Qaran smh).
So how many abuses do we have due to clan influences? Siyaad Barre/Darood vs Isaaq, MX v MJ, Darood vs Hawiyye and Hawiye vs Darood.
Then you have the inner clan conflict with Ali Mahdi(Abgaal) vs Caydiid(Habar Gidir) in Xamar and then in 2003 with ex president Abdiqaasim (HG-Ceyr) not being able to enter Villa Somalia since his fellow HG- Sacad refused to vacate it for him, and in Somaliland you had Habar Awal+Habar Jeclo v Habar Younis Garxajis in the early 90s...and also had Isaaq SNM killing a lot of Gadabuursi in the Awdal region.
Imo Siyad Barre's government, its collapse and what aspired afterwards is what makes me believe that there never will be Somali unity since clan violence has caused so much destruction and pain all around Somalia. How can you trust another clan when tomorrow that same clan with the power of a nation state can abuse its power and oppress you?
The south is no longer a government. Heck Somalia as a whole is just clan fiefdoms, and clan states. We don't have a state, but a multitude of clans and clans states all contesting for power. In the North in Somaliland it was not so bad compared to the south in terms of governance because after the collapse of the Central government, Isaaq consolidated power and maintained the status quo. It was a success for Isaaq, but now that Clan based state is showing visible cracks with the issues going on in Lascanood(Dhulbahante), dissatisfication in Awdal region(Gadabuursi/Ciisa) and amongst themselves with Habar younis vs Habar jeclo/habar awal for the kursi.
The only state that is looking firm and united is Puntland imo. Its majority majerteen, they have dominance over there and don't have to worry about other clans. They have social cohesion and togetherness that is brought about because of Majeertinimo. They are the proto clan state in Somalia.
Bandaadir/Mogadishu- It mainly has three large clans competing against each other. Abgaal v Mursade vs Habar Gidir. Since the collapse, Abgaal and HG have been competing for power but with the foreign intervention the last 20 years Abgaal have come out on top... in Xamar the major undercover supporters of AS are HG, Muursade, Duduble, Digil iyo mirifle(Raxanwey), Madowweyne. The major HG areas, Heliwa, Suuqa Xoolaha, Celisha biyaha, Xamar Jadiid are well known AS hotspots.
Galmudug -Habar gidir may be the largest force, but they are divided and don't work together. All their attention and ambition is Xamar and not their gobol. If it wasn't for Ahlu Sunna Sufi militia group and their hatred for AlShabaab, Galmudug would've easily been taken over since it is not a united state or one with independent long term goals. HG themselves outside the sufis have a lot of AS supporters, Mursade are known as an Ansar(helper tribe of AS), Duduuble are also big supporters. And Marexaan, Dir also feel sidelined in a majority Hawiye state.
HirShabelle is another state not united because of clan. Abgal vs Xawadle. Abgaal have the presidency, and the capital state is Jowhar(Abgaal city) and not Beledweyne. Then you have another big clan in Gaaljecel who are isolated from southern politics despite their large numbers, and you guessed it are more pro AS then gov.
Konfur Galbeed actually has the biggest potential in the south in becoming a functioning clan state. Digil iyo mirifle are the largest clan, their population is fast growing ,they have their own dialect af may and have a lot of resources and farmland...but guess what majority of them are AS supporters(largely as a reaction to a history of Hawiye/maha tiri dominance and injustice).
Jubbaland - Will never work because of Ogadan vs Marexaan battle for Kismayo and supremacy over Jubbaland. AS whenever they want can get support from MX in order to undermine and displace Ahmed Madobe-Ogaden from power in kismayo. Plus you have a whole ton of other clans that live in the area who are sidelined which garners more support for AS.
Out of all the states I mentioned in the South, there isn't one free from AS. As @reer said AS take full advantage of clan dynamics and politics. They side with one qabiil or one qabiil sides with AS in order to confront another qabiil they have issues with. All in all, opposing tribes see AS a counterbalancing force.
The only state that is looking firm and united is Puntland imo. Its majority majerteen, they have dominance over there and don't have to worry about other clans. They have social cohesion and togetherness that is brought about because of Majeertinimo. They are the proto clan state in Somalia.
Bandaadir/Mogadishu- It mainly has three large clans competing against each other. Abgaal v Mursade vs Habar Gidir. Since the collapse, Abgaal and HG have been competing for power but with the foreign intervention the last 20 years Abgaal have come out on top... in Xamar the major undercover supporters of AS are HG, Muursade, Duduble, Digil iyo mirifle(Raxanwey), Madowweyne. The major HG areas, Heliwa, Suuqa Xoolaha, Celisha biyaha, Xamar Jadiid are well known AS hotspots.
Galmudug -Habar gidir may be the largest force, but they are divided and don't work together. All their attention and ambition is Xamar and not their gobol. If it wasn't for Ahlu Sunna Sufi militia group and their hatred for AlShabaab, Galmudug would've easily been taken over since it is not a united state or one with independent long term goals. HG themselves outside the sufis have a lot of AS supporters, Mursade are known as an Ansar(helper tribe of AS), Duduuble are also big supporters. And Marexaan, Dir also feel sidelined in a majority Hawiye state.
HirShabelle is another state not united because of clan. Abgal vs Xawadle. Abgaal have the presidency, and the capital state is Jowhar(Abgaal city) and not Beledweyne. Then you have another big clan in Gaaljecel who are isolated from southern politics despite their large numbers, and you guessed it are more pro AS then gov.
Konfur Galbeed actually has the biggest potential in the south in becoming a functioning clan state. Digil iyo mirifle are the largest clan, their population is fast growing ,they have their own dialect af may and have a lot of resources and farmland...but guess what majority of them are AS supporters(largely as a reaction to a history of Hawiye/maha tiri dominance and injustice).
Jubbaland - Will never work because of Ogadan vs Marexaan battle for Kismayo and supremacy over Jubbaland. AS whenever they want can get support from MX in order to undermine and displace Ahmed Madobe-Ogaden from power in kismayo. Plus you have a whole ton of other clans that live in the area who are sidelined which garners more support for AS.
Out of all the states I mentioned in the South, there isn't one free from AS. As @reer said AS take full advantage of clan dynamics and politics. They side with one qabiil or one qabiil sides with AS in order to confront another qabiil they have issues with. All in all, opposing tribes see AS a counterbalancing force.
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amiirad
Burtinle - Galkayo Puntland
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