AS claims to have taken Moqokori

[Zak12]

That’s true. Probably a quarter of AS membership are insane kharawrij, the problem is that those 25 percent are the guys in charge, and the cadres. A smart Somali government would try to use leverage to draw away waverers and to isolate and eliminate those crazies, but Villa Somalia has zero leverage and zero competence or credibility.

Its somewhat a sunken cost fallacy for the AS leaders this point. They believed that shilling khawarij ideology in Somalia enough times will work but it hasn't. But now they have been playing this game for so long they can't afford to stop now. If they were smart AS would have reformed itself a long time ago, and now its too late for any negotiations. Everyone wants them dead.

Al-Qaeda is a shell of its former self and other extremist groups are either mostly defeated (ISIS) or focus on their home turf (Taliban). The era of global jihadism is coming to an end.

 

[Guure⁸]

This guy xawaadle social media guy who always talking about war status he saying they took back town

Some ppl in the comments are saying it's an old video

 

[Burqad]

Its somewhat a sunken cost fallacy for the AS leaders this point. They believed that shilling khawarij ideology in Somalia enough times will work but it hasn't. But now they have been playing this game for so long they can't afford to stop now. If they were smart AS would have reformed itself a long time ago, and now its too late for any negotiations. Everyone wants them dead.

Al-Qaeda is a shell of its former self and other extremist groups are either mostly defeated (ISIS) or focus on their home turf (Taliban). The era of global jihadism is coming to an end.

They’re true believers as shown by their actions and AQ and ISIS control half of Africa, even though they are dead in MENA

 

[reer_ugaas_hussein]

Its somewhat a sunken cost fallacy for the AS leaders this point. They believed that shilling khawarij ideology in Somalia enough times will work but it hasn't. But now they have been playing this game for so long they can't afford to stop now. If they were smart AS would have reformed itself a long time ago, and now its too late for any negotiations. Everyone wants them dead.

Al-Qaeda is a shell of its former self and other extremist groups are either mostly defeated (ISIS) or focus on their home turf (Taliban). The era of global jihadism is coming to an end.

alqaeda is not dead at all, three of their subgroups (JNIM, al shabaab and AQAP) are literallly some of the strongest non state actors in the world right now, alqaeda was nearly completely dead a decade ago by pressure from US and IS but in the last years they made sadly an incredible comeback.

 

[Zak12]

alqaeda is not dead at all, three of their subgroups (JNIM, al shabaab and AQAP) are literallly some of the strongest non state actors in the world right now, alqaeda was nearly completely dead a decade ago by pressure from US and IS but in the last years they made sadly an incredible comeback.

I'm not too familiar with JNIM or AQAP but Al-Shabab isn't nearly as strong as you think. Non-state actors like Hamas or Houthis are far stronger as they not only have the near total support of their populations but they get funding and weapons from other countries. Al-Shabab is a sanctioned, isolated organization.

 

[𐒋𐒖𐒆𐒔𐒖𐒕𐒈]

I don't think there is much to negotiate with a group that isn't independent. I'm certain they are foreign funded and ever since TPLF moles took over the organization they've morphed into an Ethiopian proxy masquerading as jihadist group.

See if you could provide the relevant financial data & numbers of who funds them.

If Alshabaab takes over Mogadishu Somalia as we know it is over.

I was only providing context for the conversation.

They are Taliban 2.0 except they're globalist they will ban women from education, they will arabise the country as they've shown their disdain for the Somali language and they will import millions of foreign khawarij to the country like those current Kenyan and Ivorian emirs.

I generally hear those lines of arguments from die-hard Evangelicals in rural America.

 

[Ximan iyo Xadeed]

See if you could provide the relevant financial data & numbers of who funds them.


I was only providing context for the conversation.


I generally hear those lines of arguments from die-hard Evangelicals in rural America.

In our context this is what's going to happen



Globalist khawarij would erase Somalia's identity

 

[𐒋𐒖𐒆𐒔𐒖𐒕𐒈]

In our context this is what's going to happen


Globalist khawarij would erase Somalia's identity

If it could be done that easily, then ours has no business in existing, does it?

 

[Jaale Ugaas]

Few things to think of with this.

1.) Small, fluid, cheap, and mobile weapons are what’s useful in Somalia unless your fighting clan state admins who hold fixed positions. A handful of heavy artillery sprinkled in Gedo or Lower Shabelle isn’t very useful defensively.

2.) AS has more funds then any admin to spend on weapons by a longshot. They dont buy these weapons because they aren’t as useful for them and because they will be destroyed from the sky. (Air support isn’t going to always be a given)

3.) Clan admins do not have good chain of command or ‘proper logistics’ especially in the south. The closest in Koonfur is Madoobes militia but in the event AS captures Xamar they will eclipse JLs forces in total funds/manpower and his defensive advantage could be irrelevant.

In short, as sweet as it is to see the scheming Hawiyes land on their face, AS is an issue for every admin in Somalia.

The final part was more so about my subsection and the Marehan clan in Galgaduud And Mudug as I understand our capacity and limitations the best. AS will have a very difficult time try to overcome those experienced clan millitas who certainly do have a good chain of command and proper logistics. When you are on the frontlines 9/12 months of the year you organise your millita very well. Each guuto is basically a mini army with capacity to carry out it's objective. The only issue I think they'd have is integration with other millitas (integrating command structures) but in the face of an existential crisis that will be handled over quickly. Some us will cannot and will not tolerate AS in our lands and it will be either death or victory inshallah. Last time AS attempted to attack us they found out.

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Large concentration of heavy weaponry in kep checkpoints and settlements will easily strengthen your defenses against any enemy as you can shell them and their positions before they even reach you.

If you can pin them down just a couple Kms from your artillery positions than you can concentrate fire on them and they have no response to this. It's also a physiological attack on them as well as they cannot anticipate when or where you will fire and they will only find out way too late

 

[Noble]

They won’t negotiate, they’ve been given better terms than they could possibly have gotten now and they haven’t negotiated. Sharif offered to straight out surrender to them and they didn’t negotiate.

Can you link Sharif offering to surrender.

 

[Afrax]

Do you think they are less independent than the FGS thats dictated by anyone including some of the neighbouring shithole countries and are protected by 25k african troops including ethiopians?

And if AS is a foreign entity why are there 25k foreign troops protecting the somali federal government from a tiny foreign militia? Aren't somalis supposed to defend themselves against any small foreign militias that tries to sneak in to the country just like any other nation?

Something isn't adding up here

Yes, I think they are less independent than FGS in both funding and decision making. Al-Shabab will not take over nor negotiate that is not their purpose. They themselves don't know it, that is the sad part.

 

[Afrax]

See if you could provide the relevant financial data & numbers of who funds them.

Although most beliefs require empirical evidence, certain beliefs can be held in a vacuum.

 

[Barkhadle1520]

They won’t negotiate, they’ve been given better terms than they could possibly have gotten now and they haven’t negotiated. Sharif offered to straight out surrender to them and they didn’t negotiate.

Negotiations in 2009 were highly possible TFG was the problem, but not negotioations with the current hardcore khariji shabaab is impossible.

You don't even need to conquer all the land for Shabaab to be defeated, conquer more than half and strategic towns and more clans under shabaab will join you, but as long as shabaab has the upper hand talks are out of question

 

[Barkhadle1520]

I Feel bad for the xawaadle bros

eventually they will join shabaab if it keeps up like this

 

[Burqad]

Yes, I think they are less independent than FGS in both funding and decision making. Al-Shabab will not take over nor negotiate that is not their purpose. They themselves don't know it, that is the sad part.

If As Shabaab was directly controlled by Al Qauda central than that would be better for Somalia, since Ali Dheere is far more insane than Sayf Ad Din. All of the dumb insane decisions AS makes comes out of Jilib.

 

[kozar]

Yes, I think they are less independent than FGS in both funding and decision making. Al-Shabab will not take over nor negotiate that is not their purpose. They themselves don't know it, that is the sad part.

How are they less independent when FGS gets billions of dollars from the so called donors, there is 25k foreign troops protecting the FGS from AS and dictated by almost anyone including abiy, abdelfetah sisi, erdogan, afwerki, uganda's museveni, imarates, qatar, AU, united nations and so on? Who do you think gives billions of dollars to alkebab and can you give us a link to check this out.

 

[reer]

If As Shabaab was directly controlled by Al Qauda central than that would be better for Somalia, since Ali Dheere is far more insane than Sayf Ad Din. All of the dumb insane decisions AS makes comes out of Jilib.

remember aq central were influenced by the muslim brotherhood. @Riftvalley the lore in this pdf is mad.

The Jihadi movement is no stranger to internal conflict, neither in terms of struggles for power or ideological disputes. During his lifetime, Usama Bin Laden entirely prohibited al-Qaida members from engaging in excommunication and when members with too extreme opinions were discovered, they were forced to undergo a sharia course to ‘correct’ their views. Former Guantanamo prisoner Walid Muhammad Al Haajj has narrated how Bin Laden
“gathered all the Mujahideen at the Farooq military camp leaving only the guards at the gate when he had heard that some of the Mujahideen at the camp had made their main concern to say that such and such a person is a Kaafir and such and such a person is an apostate. So he gathered them together and said ‘Oh my sons, you came here to train and prepare, so do not concern yourselves with Takfeer, and leave it to the scholars.”

https://icct.nl/sites/default/files/2022-12/Al-Hazimiyya-islamic-state-ideological-conflict.pdf

 

[Burqad]

remember aq central were influenced by the muslim brotherhood. @Riftvalley the lore in this pdf is mad.

It was remarkable when Bin Laden was begging Godane to not block food aid or blow up ice cream shops, you have to conclude that every Somali political figure has been dropped on their heads or something, how is a bow-legged hadrumati telling you not to murder your own countrymen?

 

[Top J]

At this point, try make a deal with AS to stop the fighting, to ensure they disarm and disband and in return Somalia introduces more Islamic fundamentalist reforms. This war will never be won via the military and we need to accept that

 

[kozar]

Seems alkebab are systematically targeting the SNA in a calculated way causing a steady stream of casualties that is slowly eroding the SNA and macawisley to its core, yet, because only a few soldiers fall each day, the public remains largely unaware of the severity of the destruction. Seems the FGS is in a more precarious position than afghanistan's government before its collapse

How can you lose 5700 of your military and have another 10K injured within 3 years and act like everything is OK and nothing has changed?

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