AS claims to have taken Moqokori

[Removed]

AS will never have the capacity to overrun certain regions like western Galgaduud and mudug and maybe lower juba and Gedo and banadir.

AS might be able to over run men with AK47s but an experienced clan millitas with multiple teknikos, chain of command, proper logistics and trained fighters will send AS running. Especially if they are on the defensive in their home turf. Also Galgaduud a Mudug clans have access to heavy weapons and not zuugs or small mortars. I mean d30 artillery, anti tank and tank weaponry as well as bebes and the like.

Few things to think of with this.

1.) Small, fluid, cheap, and mobile weapons are what’s useful in Somalia unless your fighting clan state admins who hold fixed positions. A handful of heavy artillery sprinkled in Gedo or Lower Shabelle isn’t very useful defensively.

2.) AS has more funds then any admin to spend on weapons by a longshot. They dont buy these weapons because they aren’t as useful for them and because they will be destroyed from the sky. (Air support isn’t going to always be a given)

3.) Clan admins do not have good chain of command or ‘proper logistics’ especially in the south. The closest in Koonfur is Madoobes militia but in the event AS captures Xamar they will eclipse JLs forces in total funds/manpower and his defensive advantage could be irrelevant.

In short, as sweet as it is to see the scheming Hawiyes land on their face, AS is an issue for every admin in Somalia.

 

[Barkhadle1520]

Expect more towns to fall in East hiiran as they reverse all the macawisley gains and incircle them.

U.S. likely to pursue talks with Al-Shabaab to end Somalia conflict – former adviser

U.S. likely to pursue talks with Al-Shabaab to end Somalia conflict – former adviser

garoweonline.com

Gaining terrain is literally impossible, endless stalemate


>Macawisley capture a town
>Macawisley advance and pull out of the town
>SNA troops garrison it
>A few shabaab with sandals shoot at them
>SNA troops desert
>Macawisley are forced to retreat

 

[The Oponian Guild]

Macawiisleey being forced to call up the elderly to fight so as to replenish their losses, this is the doing of HSM and his administration.

 

[Burqad]

Expect more towns to fall in East hiiran as they reverse all the macawisley gains and incircle them.

U.S. likely to pursue talks with Al-Shabaab to end Somalia conflict – former adviser

U.S. likely to pursue talks with Al-Shabaab to end Somalia conflict – former adviser

garoweonline.com

They won’t negotiate, they’ve been given better terms than they could possibly have gotten now and they haven’t negotiated. Sharif offered to straight out surrender to them and they didn’t negotiate.

 

[Hilmaam]

This guy xawaadle social media guy who always talking about war status he saying they took back town

 

[Hilmaam]

 

[Chaseyourdreamzz]

I Feel bad for the xawaadle bros

 

[The Oponian Guild]

I Feel bad for the xawaadle bros

They fighting desperately at same time Abgaal baa qoorta kaa dhul saraan

 

[𐒋𐒖𐒆𐒔𐒖𐒕𐒈]

There is an increasing likelihood that the United States will begin talks with the militant group Al-Shabaab to end Somalia’s decades-long conflict, Hamza Warfa, a former senior advisor at the State Department has said.

He added that the Trump administration may already be in the process of engaging in talks with Al-Shabaab, which presents an opportunity to bring an end to the conflict.

The former Somali diplomat said he plans to meet with Trump administration officials in the coming weeks to encourage them to take such steps, aiming to preserve U.S. interests and give Somalis, who have suffered greatly during the prolonged conflict, a chance to live in peace.

Ex-US official says Trump administration could be engaging Al-Shabaab in Somalia peace talks | Somali Guardian

MOGADISHU (Somaliguardian) - There is an increasing likelihood that the United States will begin talks with the militant group Al-Shabaab to end Somalia’s

somaliguardian.com

Relevant segment of the interview



Hudson Institute report conclusion
The FGS and its allies will not meaningfully defeat al-Shabaab in the next year or two, and probably not within the next five years. It is a complex, adaptable insurgent movement—the strongest jihadist group in Africa, for that matter. And it thrives on Somalia’s internal conflicts and political dysfunction, intractable problems that the country will not solve overnight.

[ ... ]
Given the improbability of a decisive military victory in the coming months or even years, the previously taboo notion of negotiating with the terrorists has gained traction in certain Somali political circles of late. President Hassan Sheikh has even oscillated between claiming that the objective of the current offensive is al-Shabaab’s complete battlefield defeat and claiming that the offensive aims to push the group into negotiations. In principle there is no reason to prefer an endless and fitful counterinsurgency to negotiations, but in practice it would be difficult to secure anything like an acceptable compromise at this stage. Some Somali security sources with knowledge of the group suggested that while al-Shabaab might enter negotiations with international powers, such as the US and Turkey (likely with mediation by Qatar, whose role in Somalia has proven controversial), it has no interest in speaking to the Somali government, which it sees as illegitimate and weak

https://s3.amazonaws.com/media.hudson.org/Faltering+Lion+-+James+Barnett+Sep+2023.pdf

 

[tyrannicalmanager]

They won’t negotiate, they’ve been given better terms than they could possibly have gotten now and they haven’t negotiated. Sharif offered to straight out surrender to them and they didn’t negotiate.

tbf, those terms were given by the TFG, which barely controlled a district in Xamar at the time.

 

[Afrax]

If this proves to be true it would mean that AS nearly completely reversed the FGS offensives of the last years. Thousands of soldiers and macawisley died for AS to just recapture these areas in less than 3 years
https://x.com/Mogadishu_News/status/1942161668554760428
View attachment 366283

• Moqokori shall not fall, for the reasons I’ve stated before.
  • They don’t need Al-Shabaab
• The FGS has supported them so far, and I see no reason for that to change.
  • Where I draw the line is any encroachment on other people's land.

And I absolutely despise you hypocrites who claim to care about Xawaadle struggle, while you only create discord around them in order to exploit their conflict for political gain.

 

[Afrax]

There is an increasing likelihood that the United States will begin talks with the militant group Al-Shabaab to end Somalia’s decades-long conflict, Hamza Warfa, a former senior advisor at the State Department has said.

He added that the Trump administration may already be in the process of engaging in talks with Al-Shabaab, which presents an opportunity to bring an end to the conflict.

The former Somali diplomat said he plans to meet with Trump administration officials in the coming weeks to encourage them to take such steps, aiming to preserve U.S. interests and give Somalis, who have suffered greatly during the prolonged conflict, a chance to live in peace.

Ex-US official says Trump administration could be engaging Al-Shabaab in Somalia peace talks | Somali Guardian

MOGADISHU (Somaliguardian) - There is an increasing likelihood that the United States will begin talks with the militant group Al-Shabaab to end Somalia’s

somaliguardian.com

Relevant segment of the interview



Hudson Institute report conclusion
The FGS and its allies will not meaningfully defeat al-Shabaab in the next year or two, and probably not within the next five years. It is a complex, adaptable insurgent movement—the strongest jihadist group in Africa, for that matter. And it thrives on Somalia’s internal conflicts and political dysfunction, intractable problems that the country will not solve overnight.

[ ... ]
Given the improbability of a decisive military victory in the coming months or even years, the previously taboo notion of negotiating with the terrorists has gained traction in certain Somali political circles of late. President Hassan Sheikh has even oscillated between claiming that the objective of the current offensive is al-Shabaab’s complete battlefield defeat and claiming that the offensive aims to push the group into negotiations. In principle there is no reason to prefer an endless and fitful counterinsurgency to negotiations, but in practice it would be difficult to secure anything like an acceptable compromise at this stage. Some Somali security sources with knowledge of the group suggested that while al-Shabaab might enter negotiations with international powers, such as the US and Turkey (likely with mediation by Qatar, whose role in Somalia has proven controversial), it has no interest in speaking to the Somali government, which it sees as illegitimate and weak

https://s3.amazonaws.com/media.hudson.org/Faltering+Lion+-+James+Barnett+Sep+2023.pdf

I don't think there is much to negotiate with a group that isn't independent. I'm certain they are foreign funded and ever since TPLF moles took over the organization they've morphed into an Ethiopian proxy masquerading as jihadist group.

Every time Somali president visits Egypt, they amp operations. They don't even bother hiding it.

• 25 July 2022– President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud visited Cairo and held bilateral talks with President el‑Sisi
  • A major suicide bombing killed a district commissioner, and Ethiopian-aligned forces repelled a border raid by Al-Shabaab around 27 July 2022
• 21 January 2024 –President Mohamud met President El‑Sisi at Al‑Ittihadiya Palace in Cairo
  • On the same day Al-Shabab attacks Masagaway
• 13–14 August 2024– President Mohamud undertook another official visit, meeting el‑Sisi and signing a military cooperation protocol on 14 August
  • Few days later on 21 of Aug: AL-Shabab does a major suicide bombing at a military base in Mogadishu
• 20-26 January 2025 – During a return visit, a strategic partnership declaration was signed in Cairo
  • 23 Jan 2025 | During the visit period (20–26 Jan), Al-Shabaab reportedly claimed control of Masagaway base via VBIED attack, though Somali forces resisted
• Today on 7 of July HSM visits Egypt
  • Alshabab attacks Moqokori.

 

[AbrahamFreedom]

Al Shabab is on track of its eventual takeover of Somalia. They are Somalia's government-in-waiting. I hope Trump does what is right and coordinates international efforts to stop all political, financial and military support of the HSM government and all other Somalia governments. Trump seems to get it from what I have been seeing recently on his administration's musings on possibly giving up on Somalia (it is the right and only decision). There needs to finally be a winner in this 45+ year Somali Civil War and it cannot be a clan. This current impasse is of no benefit to anyone, especially western taxpayers funding the Somalia nightmare and communities that have been plagued and greatly negatively impacted by Somali migration. Let nature run it's course; the time for foreign intervention is now over. Broad, local support will come. We now have a Darod vs Isaaq clan war in northern Somalia. When does it end? Al Shabab has proven to be the only ones capable of running effective leadership. There are so many positives to Al Shabab governing the country and I am the person most against Islamic terrorism. Maybe we will even finally see an end to tahriib. Al Shabab will reform and modernize and soon enough, its terror designation is taken off. Somalis need to adjust to the reality and the State Department, that reads this website, would be smart to take my advice. Al Shabab is unfortunately the only competent and effective group to lead the country and they will do a good job at it as a hardcore theocracy. The Somali people only have themselves to blame for allowing this to happen. It's too late now to change course.

 

[Neptune]

Al Shabab is on track of its eventual takeover of Somalia. They are Somalia's government-in-waiting. I hope Trump does what is right and coordinates international efforts to stop all political, financial and military support of the HSM government and all other Somalia governments. Trump seems to get it from what I have been seeing recently on his administration's musings on possibly giving up on Somalia (it is the right and only decision). There needs to finally be a winner in this 45+ year Somali Civil War and it cannot be a clan. This current impasse is of no benefit to anyone, especially western taxpayers funding the Somalia nightmare and communities that have been plagued and greatly negatively impacted by Somali migration. Let nature run it's course; the time for foreign intervention is now over. Broad, local support will come. We now have a Darod vs Isaaq clan war in northern Somalia. When does it end? Al Shabab has proven to be the only ones capable of running effective leadership. There are so many positives to Al Shabab governing the country and I am the person most against Islamic terrorism. Maybe we will even finally see an end to tahrib. Al Shabab will reform and modernize and soon enough, its terror designation is taken off. Somalis need to adjust to the reality and the State Department, that reads this website, would be smart to take my advice. Al Shabab is unfortunately the only competent and effective group to lead the country and they will do a good job at it as a hardcore theocracy. The Somali people only have themselves to blame for allowing this to happen. It's too late now to change course.

Why would America support this? Do you realize how embarrassing it would be if the enemy that attacked their country and drew them into the middle east was now in control of a nation state? This is even worse than Afghanistan. This is a group that has its eyes set on more than just Somalia. They will never rule.

 

[kozar]

I don't think there is much to negotiate with a group that isn't independent. I'm certain they are foreign funded and ever since TPLF moles took over the organization they've morphed into an Ethiopian proxy masquerading as jihadist group.

Every time Somali president visits Egypt, they amp operations. They don't even bother hiding it.

• 25 July 2022– President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud visited Cairo and held bilateral talks with President el‑Sisi
  • A major suicide bombing killed a district commissioner, and Ethiopian-aligned forces repelled a border raid by Al-Shabaab around 27 July 2022
• 21 January 2024 –President Mohamud met President El‑Sisi at Al‑Ittihadiya Palace in Cairo
  • On the same day Al-Shabab attacks Masagaway
• 13–14 August 2024– President Mohamud undertook another official visit, meeting el‑Sisi and signing a military cooperation protocol on 14 August
  • Few days later on 21 of Aug: AL-Shabab does a major suicide bombing at a military base in Mogadishu
• 20-26 January 2025 – During a return visit, a strategic partnership declaration was signed in Cairo
  • 23 Jan 2025 | During the visit period (20–26 Jan), Al-Shabaab reportedly claimed control of Masagaway base via VBIED attack, though Somali forces resisted
• Today on 7 of July HSM visits Egypt
  • Alshabab attacks Moqokori.

Do you think they are less independent than the FGS thats dictated by anyone including some of the neighbouring shithole countries and are protected by 25k african troops including ethiopians?

And if AS is a foreign entity why are there 25k foreign troops protecting the somali federal government from a tiny foreign militia? Aren't somalis supposed to defend themselves against any small foreign militias that tries to sneak in to the country just like any other nation?

Something isn't adding up here

 

[Ximan iyo Xadeed]

There is an increasing likelihood that the United States will begin talks with the militant group Al-Shabaab to end Somalia’s decades-long conflict, Hamza Warfa, a former senior advisor at the State Department has said.

He added that the Trump administration may already be in the process of engaging in talks with Al-Shabaab, which presents an opportunity to bring an end to the conflict.

The former Somali diplomat said he plans to meet with Trump administration officials in the coming weeks to encourage them to take such steps, aiming to preserve U.S. interests and give Somalis, who have suffered greatly during the prolonged conflict, a chance to live in peace.

Ex-US official says Trump administration could be engaging Al-Shabaab in Somalia peace talks | Somali Guardian

MOGADISHU (Somaliguardian) - There is an increasing likelihood that the United States will begin talks with the militant group Al-Shabaab to end Somalia’s

somaliguardian.com

Relevant segment of the interview



Hudson Institute report conclusion
The FGS and its allies will not meaningfully defeat al-Shabaab in the next year or two, and probably not within the next five years. It is a complex, adaptable insurgent movement—the strongest jihadist group in Africa, for that matter. And it thrives on Somalia’s internal conflicts and political dysfunction, intractable problems that the country will not solve overnight.

[ ... ]
Given the improbability of a decisive military victory in the coming months or even years, the previously taboo notion of negotiating with the terrorists has gained traction in certain Somali political circles of late. President Hassan Sheikh has even oscillated between claiming that the objective of the current offensive is al-Shabaab’s complete battlefield defeat and claiming that the offensive aims to push the group into negotiations. In principle there is no reason to prefer an endless and fitful counterinsurgency to negotiations, but in practice it would be difficult to secure anything like an acceptable compromise at this stage. Some Somali security sources with knowledge of the group suggested that while al-Shabaab might enter negotiations with international powers, such as the US and Turkey (likely with mediation by Qatar, whose role in Somalia has proven controversial), it has no interest in speaking to the Somali government, which it sees as illegitimate and weak

https://s3.amazonaws.com/media.hudson.org/Faltering+Lion+-+James+Barnett+Sep+2023.pdf

If Alshabaab takes over Mogadishu Somalia as we know it is over. They are Taliban 2.0 except they're globalist they will ban women from education, they will arabise the country as they've shown their disdain for the Somali language and they will import millions of foreign khawarij to the country like those current Kenyan and Ivorian emirs.


I don't want a mutt khawarij nation

 

[Zak12]

Do you think they are less independent than the FGS thats dictated by anyone including some of the neighbouring shithole countries and are protected by 25k african troops including ethiopians?

And if AS is a foreign entity why are there 25k foreign troops protecting the somali federal government from a tiny foreign militia? Aren't somalis supposed to defend themselves against any small foreign militias that tries to sneak in to the country just like any other nation?

Something isn't adding up here

Al-Shabab are obviously a home grown movement, I've seen very little evidence that they get major foreign funding Not only do they get most of their support from local Somali clans but they as a whole have been entrenched within the clan system. The only foreign aspects of Al-Shabab are its ideology and some of the foreign troops they recruit but the leadership are firmly Somali.

Don't take this to mean Somalis support extremism or jihadism. Many under Al-Shabab join them out of desperation or under intimidation. That is why Shabab struggles to make progress beyond their strongholds.

Extremists can never take over. They either face stiff resistant from the locals as they have zero legitimacy because they operate with a foreign imported ideology that is out of sink with Somali societal and cultural norms.

There is a reason why ISIS are all foreigners isolated in some desolate mountain and why most of AS recruits are foreigners.

When AS became an Al-Qaida affiliate , it purged most of it's local membership
View attachment 355089
View attachment 355090

The biggest strength of Al-Shabaab is that it presents itself as an alternative to the corrupt FGS.

The biggest strength of the FGS is that it is the only internationally recognized government.

 

[kozar]

Al-Shabab are obviously a home grown movement, I've seen very little evidence that they get major foreign funding Not only do they get most of their support from local Somali clans but they as a whole have been entrenched within the clan system. The only foreign aspects of Al-Shabab are its ideology and some of the foreign troops they recruit but the leadership are firmly Somali.

Don't take this to mean Somalis support extremism or jihadism. Many under Al-Shabab join them out of desperation or under intimidation. That is why Shabab struggles to make progress beyond their strongholds.

I've never considered AS an important movement but just a punch of blood lust pyschopaths due to the one sided media we all enjoy, but recently due to the increased intensity of the AS conflict and growing division among somalis regarding AS activities I become more curious on their issue and seems our perception is strongly biased thanks to the tremendous propaganda we hear on a daily basis. Sofar all I know is that FGS is atleast more foreign than AS to somalis and hence less popular as its a common knowledge that less popular entities always rely more on foreign assistance, but after I am done with my pseudo research I will post my take on here

 

[Burqad]

• Moqokori shall not fall, for the reasons I’ve stated before.
  • They don’t need Al-Shabaab
• The FGS has supported them so far, and I see no reason for that to change.
  • Where I draw the line is any encroachment on other people's land.

And I absolutely despise you hypocrites who claim to care about Xawaadle struggle, while you only create discord around them in order to exploit their conflict for political gain.

Moqokiri has already fell you dumbass

 

[Burqad]

Al-Shabab are obviously a home grown movement, I've seen very little evidence that they get major foreign funding Not only do they get most of their support from local Somali clans but they as a whole have been entrenched within the clan system. The only foreign aspects of Al-Shabab are its ideology and some of the foreign troops they recruit but the leadership are firmly Somali.

Don't take this to mean Somalis support extremism or jihadism. Many under Al-Shabab join them out of desperation or under intimidation. That is why Shabab struggles to make progress beyond their strongholds.

That’s true. Probably a quarter of AS membership are insane kharawrij, the problem is that those 25 percent are the guys in charge, and the cadres. A smart Somali government would try to use leverage to draw away waverers and to isolate and eliminate those crazies, but Villa Somalia has zero leverage and zero competence or credibility.