Ahmed Madoobe will stay for another 10 years

[Step a side]

The way you listed all of his failures Way kuu dhamaatay Hassanow


I was mentioning the same things, but somehow @bidenkulaha thinks HSM can pull it off anyways, lol.

Imagine I cause you hardships and sufferings for 3 years and 6 months and then give you money and do you favours because the elections will be due in 6 months time. Will you accept that? Do you think Somali clans are that stupid to fall for a bit of cash? Farmaajo had that Qatari money but he was hated because he tried extension which is a big no no and he also didn’t do nothing when it comes to security. His Qatari money didn’t get him anywhere in the elections. Likewise HSM is done for. He should have pleased everyone from the very start. Too late now.

 

[bidenkulaha]

@bidenkulaha Every single one of the evicted people will also be a lost vote. Sidaas ayuu codka Hawiye/D&M/Jreer ku khasaaraya, one by one for every evicted in Banaadir/LS

I saw them rambling in those interviews. No more badbaado qaran or in this case votes

I highly doubt HSM is worried about IDPs voting for opposition. Will they even bother registering them

 

[GaradShabeel]

I highly doubt HSM is worried about IDPs voting for opposition. Will they even bother registering them

Their languishing conditions will hopefully make them put some effort into casting their votes.

 

[bidenkulaha]

Their languishing conditions will hopefully make them put some effort into casting their votes.

Registering will likely be discriminatory in that there’ll lots of registering and polling booths in places that are safe and developed.

I highly doubt IDPs will be a major electoral factor tbh.

 

[World]

Niggas think you can just pay $10k to a clan elder and a 1+ million tribe will vote for you

 

[GaradShabeel]

Imagine I cause you hardships and sufferings for 3 years and 6 months and then give you money and do you favours because the elections will be due in 6 months time. Will you accept that? Do you think Somali clans are that stupid to fall for a bit of cash? Farmaajo had that Qatari money but he was hated because he tried extension which is a big no no and he also didn’t do nothing when it comes to security. His Qatari money didn’t get him anywhere in the elections. Likewise HSM is done for. He should have pleased everyone from the very start. Too late now.

Yup, and with a couple of years to go, things can go even worse for him. The only factor that can make him remain power depends on the type of election we will get and how the next president will be (s)elected.

 

[bidenkulaha]

Niggas think you can just pay $10k to a clan elder and a 1+ million tribe will vote for you

HSM will have a few hundred million for the next election

 

[Step a side]

Yup, and with a couple of years to go, things can go even worse for him. The only factor that can make him remain power depends on the type of election we will get and how the next president will be (s)elected.

I can’t think of any type of election that can keep him in office. Do you know which one can?

 

[GaradShabeel]

I can’t think of any type of election that can keep him in office. Do you know which one can?

The current 4.5 can keep him in power, but it seems to be gone by then.

Then if we have a two party system, which the current NCC agreements are pointing towards, then they'll obviously make HSM make one of the candidates and then could push for a second candidate that could be unpopular or opposition not united etc.

Then who'll be handling the election committee? If it's out of the control of the FMS, then it's harder to make sure that things go accordingly. I'm not making any assumptions beforehand, but voting irregularities are prone to happen in other countries. If this can be prevented, then great, otherwise it may spell very bad.

Other things that can go wrong such as people being disfranchised. Elections not being held everywhere. Not everyone being registered etc.

 

[Step a side]

The current 4.5 can keep him in power, but it seems to be gone by then.

Then if we have a two party system, which the current NCC agreements are pointing towards, then they'll obviously make HSM make one of the candidates and then could push for a second candidate that could be unpopular or opposition not united etc.

Then who'll be handling the election committee? If it's out of the control of the FMS, then it's harder to make sure that things go accordingly. I'm not making any assumptions beforehand, but voting irregularities are prone to happen in other countries. If this can be prevented, then great, otherwise it may spell very bad.

Many things that can go wrong.

Damuljadiid in a 2 party system will not be successfull. That party has a bad reputation. As for the current 4.5 system I don’t think people will back him. The reason why he won last time was because most of Somalia was united to get Farmaajo out. Sh shareef’s party, Hassan Ali kheyre or Daljir under Xasan Macalin will be winning it next election if the 4.5 system still exists.

 

[World]

HSM will have a few hundred million for the next election

That won’t work outside of 4.5. The one who can deceive and convince the public will win. The best speaker. Farmaajo has a better chance than HSM in a 1m1v. But maybe someone like Sh Shariif will win.

 

[bidenkulaha]

That won’t work outside of 4.5. The one who can deceive and convince the public will win. The best speaker. Farmaajo has a better than HSM in a 1m1v. But maybe someone like Sh Shariif will win.

I think HSM vs Shariif is likely if we’re going to 1p1v with this current system which is why a Shariif is suddenly so quiet

 

[GaradShabeel]

Damuljadiid in a 2 party system will not be successfull. That party has a bad reputation. As for the current 4.5 system I don’t think people will back him. The reason why he won last time was because most of Somalia was united to get Farmaajo out. Sh shareef’s party, Hassan Ali kheyre or Daljir under Xasan Macalin will be winning it next election if the 4.5 system still exists.

True, they do have more chances than HSM. I do tend to be overestimate him at times

@bidenkulaha aren't there any term limits in the constitution? This is HSM's second term, how can he seek a third term?

 

[bidenkulaha]

True, they do have more chances than HSM. I do tend to be overestimate him at times

@bidenkulaha aren't there any term limits in the constitution? This HSM's second term, how can he seek a third term?

No

 

[GaradShabeel]

No

Recipe for disaster. Biggest mistake ever.

 

[World]

I think HSM vs Shariif is likely if we’re going to 1p1v with this current system which is why a Shariif is suddenly so quiet

2 party system won’t ever happen. If you think people in PL SWS or JL will vote to choose which hu2 to pick you are delusional.

 

[bidenkulaha]

Recipe for disaster. Biggest mistake ever.

No president will bother bringing it in.

 

[bidenkulaha]

2 party system won’t ever happen. If you think people in PL or JL will vote to choose which hu2 to pick you are delusional.

Even if it’s 3, 5 is too many for a one round system.

HSM Shariif will be the big players imo. Shariif can win a runoff against HSM

 

[GaradShabeel]

No president will bother bringing it in.

But why did they leave out of NCC? Ignorance amongst Somali politicians really do wonder. Don't be surprised if we get authoritarian presidents again.

 

[bidenkulaha]

But why did they leave out of NCC? Ignorance amongst Somali politicians really do wonders. Don't be surprised if we get authoritarian presidents again.

Why would HSM rule himself out of the next election. He’s writing the NCC agreements