Ahmed Madoobe will stay for another 10 years

He wants 1m1v, must have nightmares from that meeting before election day with 200+ MPs before they later said ‘no more Abgaal’. Secret ballot indirect elections lead to washamsi.

An election on the back of defeating Shabaab and splashing some IMF money is his best chance at victory.

Nearly 3 years though, a lot can happen.

Yeah, 3 years with more media controversies every week won't make it better for him. Unless he manages to avoid controversies and make up with dissatisfied communities, their support are long gone.

After the past week, he can say bye to the Jreer votes:mjlaugh:
 

bidenkulaha

GalYare
Yeah, 3 years with more media controversies every week won't make it better for him. Unless he manages to avoid controversies and make up with dissatisfied communities, their support are long gone.

After the past week, he can say bye to the Jreer votes:mjlaugh:
You underestimate the support he’s getting from hawiye for this Shabaab ops. When he expands that to the south we can see a very popular HSM among more than HG
 
He just needs to divide them enough. A bit of each clan. And pick the largest sub within them.

I’m not sure Madoobe+Hussein Sheikh Mohamud who are both reer Xuddur’s population within RX but it’s likely HSM allies with them. On HG, he’ll go for an Cayr pick (largest sub). We could see him try to elect a MX in JL to get their support. And Xawaadle in Hirshabelle.

You're right, he have better luck on a sub-clan level.

Regarding your JL suggestion, that's only if OG are on the same page with MX. Otherwise, the large base of OG will be gone. Does he want to risk it?
 
Yeah, 3 years with more media controversies every week won't make it better for him. Unless he manages to avoid controversies and make up with dissatisfied communities, their support are long gone.

After the past week, he can say bye to the Jreer votes:mjlaugh:
He took way too many L’s in one year. It’s over for him 🤣.
 

bidenkulaha

GalYare
You're right, he have better luck on a sub-clan level.

Regarding your JL suggestion, that's only if OG are on the same page with MX. Otherwise, the large base of OG will be gone. Does he want to risk it?
MX are important constituency for him, he might keep OG in the Villa and also move capital to Buale to get Cawlyahan support.

A lot of jigsaws, anyway all speculation.
 
You underestimate the support he’s getting from hawiye for this Shabaab ops. When he expands that to the south we can see a very popular HSM among more than HG

The HAG votes are easier than the other clans. I'm sure that Hawiye internally will manage to solve things when AS have been completely wiped from their land.

But other regions like PL and SSC, I don't even think it's worth trying lol.
 

bidenkulaha

GalYare
The HAG votes are easier than the other clans. I'm sure that Hawiye internally will manage to solve things when AS have been completely wiped from their land.

But other regions like PL and SSC, I don't even think it's worth trying lol.
There’s no hope of SSC election. It’s a warzone
 
MX are important constituency for him, he might keep OG in the Villa and also move capital to Buale to get Cawlyahan support.

A lot of jigsaws, anyway all speculation.

Did you miss when OG elders recently spoke out. Kuumade seems to be moving as one. Good luck dividing them now 🤣
 

bidenkulaha

GalYare
Did you miss when OG elders spoke out. Kuumade waa Kuumade. Good luck dividing them now 🤣
It’s not division what I said.

OG in the Villa, with Cawlyahan capital liberated is his way of keeping OG votes but also getting MX as they’ll be next JL President is the idea.

He’s trying to get enough votes of his potential opposition to neutralise whoever is running against him while consolidating hawiye
 
It’s not division what I said.

OG in the Villa, with Cawlyahan capital liberated is his way of keeping OG votes but also getting MX as they’ll be next JL President is the idea.

He’s trying to get enough votes of his potential opposition to neutralise whoever is running against him while consolidating hawiye

Tbh, HSM just needs to do SL style and buy out the elders of each community (on a sub-sub-clan level) so they can make their people vote for a certain candidate. Seems to be working very well for them.

Regarding HSM, as long as his running mate isn't popular, he may have strong chances. Don't even know how the 'opposition' will be able put one collective candidate, if that's how it will take place. I'm just confused over how the entire 1p1v will go about 😅
 
The HAG votes are easier than the other clans. I'm sure that Hawiye internally will manage to solve things when AS have been completely wiped from their land.

But other regions like PL and SSC, I don't even think it's worth trying lol.
Don’t forget RX who are the king makers had problems with Baraawe. Bimaal issue is included. Then you have Murusade who don’t like HSM. In fact most non Hiiraab Hawiye have been sidelined completely and don’t like him one bit. MJ/SSC don’t want HSM for many reasons. Xawaadle completely gave up on HSM and hate him. Abgaal also don’t want him because of not solving the problems they have been facing recently internally. Sh shareef is more popular amongst the Mudulood. That guy at least tried to solve the infighting. Madow weyne lost support for HSM. Somaliland is in political turmoil. Irir stuff don’t work no more over there. Just now wariye bulbul got abducted in Xamar. He is gaaljecel and the community is pissed of 🤣.

No projects, schools, hospitals. roads or infrastructure. Just promises no action. The sport scandal with the obese girl been send to represent was another major blow. Land grabbing in Xamar etc. This shabaab episode should have finished long ago instead we hear they are in Runirgood. It’s all a joke.
 

bidenkulaha

GalYare
Tbh, HSM just needs to do SL style and buy out the elders of each community so they can make their people vote for a certain candidate. Seems to be working very well for them.

Regarding HSM, as long as his running mate isn't popular, he may have strong chances. Don't even know how the 'opposition' will be able put one collective candidate, if that's how it will take place. I'm just confused over how the entire 1p1v will go about 😅
That will happen too. He’ll spend a lot of UAE money for those elections.

But you also need to satisfy the political clan dynamics. Right now no amount of money will get any MX citizens to vote for HSM if Madoobe is still president next election.
 
Don’t forget RX who are the king makers had problems with Baraawe. Bimaal issue is included. Then you have Murusade who don’t like HSM. In fact most non Hiiraab Hawiye have been sidelined completely and don’t like him one bit. MJ/SSC don’t want HSM for many reasons. Xawaadle completely gave up on HSM and hate him. Abgaal also don’t want him because of not solving the problems they have been facing recently internally. Sh shareef is more popular amongst the Mudulood. That guy at least tried to solve the infighting. Madow weyne lost support for HSM. Somaliland is in political turmoil. Irir stuff don’t work no more over there. Just now wariye bulbul got abducted in Xamar. He is gaaljecel and the community is pissed of 🤣.

No projects, schools, hospitals. roads or infrastructure. Just promises no action. The sport scandal with the obese girl been send to represent was another major blow. Land grabbing in Xamar etc. This shabaab episode should have finished long ago instead we hear they are in Runirgood. It’s all a joke.

The way you listed all of his failures :ohdamn: Way kuu dhamaatay Hassanow 🤣


I was mentioning the same things, but somehow @bidenkulaha thinks HSM can pull it off anyways, lol.
 
Somalis have short memories. @TekNiKo will be supporting HSM if Madoobe goes and MX get the seat

But that's different tho. You're satisfying MX by giving them what they are looking for the most and satisfying their interests. Same thing will probably happen with XL, if they take over HS through HSM.

But what about everyone else? It will be harder to gain their support.
 

bidenkulaha

GalYare
But that's different tho. You're satisfying MX by giving them what they are looking for the most and satisfying their interests. Same thing will probably happen with XL, if they take over HS through HSM.

But what about everyone else? It will be harder to gain their support.
You act as if MX Xawaadle HG Abgaal are small populations! That’s millions of potential votes.

Sign a contract with the elders to get them to each contribute 100 thousand voters from their close kin. This is something Erdogan does with Arab tribes
 
Don’t forget RX who are the king makers had problems with Baraawe. Bimaal issue is included. Then you have Murusade who don’t like HSM. In fact most non Hiiraab Hawiye have been sidelined completely and don’t like him one bit. MJ/SSC don’t want HSM for many reasons. Xawaadle completely gave up on HSM and hate him. Abgaal also don’t want him because of not solving the problems they have been facing recently internally. Sh shareef is more popular amongst the Mudulood. That guy at least tried to solve the infighting. Madow weyne lost support for HSM. Somaliland is in political turmoil. Irir stuff don’t work no more over there. Just now wariye bulbul got abducted in Xamar. He is gaaljecel and the community is pissed of 🤣.

No projects, schools, hospitals. roads or infrastructure. Just promises no action. The sport scandal with the obese girl been send to represent was another major blow. Land grabbing in Xamar etc. This shabaab episode should have finished long ago instead we hear they are in Runirgood. It’s all a joke.

@bidenkulaha Every single one of the evicted people will also be a lost vote. Sidaas ayuu codka Hawiye/D&M/Jreer ku khasaaraya, one by one for every evicted in Banaadir/LS 🤣

I saw them rambling in those interviews. No more badbaado qaran or in this case votes :jaynerd:
 

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