Abiy Ahmed Has Lost It!

[Step a side]

It makes sense why Ethiopia had been working hard to get a strong navy.

This is an old quote of his.

"we should build our naval force capacity in the future”

 

[Hilmaam]

I think this video summarizes issue well. Right now 90+ percent of trade goes through djibouti they have highway and electrical rail system. Ethiopia is worried about 1 billion they pay each year to djibouti. Also in case of war if you destory road and rail country will be in trouble due to being bound to djibuti route. Before 1998 war Asab eritrea port used to handle 70% of trade

All the investment in ports somalia has done we don't even have 10% of market. Ethiopia is even looking into corridor with Kenya. Somalia we are arch nemesis. plus would you want to import 50 million dollar turbine through somalia? We have to many issues with roads and safety. There has to be a reason after all these years we dont have more market share from djibouti tells me ethiopia not taking us serious

 

[Aurelian]

@Abaq is right in the long run. If Somalis were to federate with Ethiopia and Eritrea, in the long run Greater Ethiopia would be a strong Muslim majority country. This has been the goal of all Somalis for the past 500 years. There would be no Somali nation-state but we would be part of a Muslim majority state that is unparalleled in Africa.

We would have to give up on our national aspirations and assimilate with the Muslim Oromo, Afar and Habesha. That is a bitter pill to swallow for most Somalis in exchange for the longterm Islamization of Ethiopia.

Abaq is willing to play this kind of game. We are already playing this game on slow mode given the massive population growth of Muslims in Ethiopia. He wants to speed things up. The Christian Habesha are defeatable in the long run.

Assimilating and integrating with Oromos is a death wish. This is the worst outcome for us

 

[Aurelian]

Low IQ leaders in Mogadishu and Djibouti. Puppets in Jigjiga. We are definitely getting invaded. Eritrea has special ties with Israel believe it or not. These threats are directed towards Somalia. Saudi Arabia will be taking Yemen.

Djibouti is more than secure. But to be real, I think that there is a chance Abiy's threat to Eritrea is just a deception to take Zeila.

 

[Deejay]

Djibouti is more than secure. But to be real, I think that there is a chance Abiy's threat to Eritrea is just a deception to take Zeila.

They want the Asseb port. You see the UAE is pissed off about DP World being kicked out of Djibouti, so they're now funding Abiy's war of conquest in Eritrea. It also benefits Abiy who has to please the amhara elites who're mad about he peace deal with the tigrayans and he's trying to placate them by invading Eritrea. Somalia is pretty much a US/UN colony at this point and Djibouti is a glorified military base so they're not likely being targeted here but Eritrea also known as Africa's North Korea is a pariah state in the International Community and they wouldn't give a shit if the Ethiopians went to war with them.

 

[Abba Sadacha]

Lol either way the Houthi’s benefit with federalism they even get to rule themselves more the UAE is their only for the ports and Socotra.

Nah bro ENDF only occupied the border towns and this was the plan all along, Eritrea was going to let ENDF take all up to outskirts of Asmara then they would counter attack Ethiopia it’s a military tactic know as Blitzkrieg NSA, CIA got hold of this plan and told Meles don’t push further.

you don't retreat if you're winning a conventional war bro, especially when it's in your land, not the opposing sides land. but I do agree eritrea would've had the advantage if the endf advanced further into eritrea, this maybe one of the reasons why meles zenawi called the army back.

 

[Arkan]

State owned Ethiopian Broadcasting Corporation (EBC) posts map of Eritrea as part of Ethiopia. Ethiopia's provocations are endless.

 

[Three Moons]

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[NordicSomali]

So he wants us to join his already volatile nation and station forces on our ports. I wonder who would be leading this confederation. This is Yugoslavia on steroids, bound to end in blood.

Basically uniting unstable countries

 

[GaradShabeel]

Another Ethiopian official, this time a federal MP and state minister, with a subtle message to neighboring countries

 

[Arkan]

Another Ethiopian official, this time a federal MP and state minister, with a subtle message to neighboring countries

This is starting to look very fishy.

Eritreans became Somali irredentists in the comments and quotes. Fair play to respond to the tweet like that.

 

[GaradShabeel]

Never ending cargo flights between Ethiopia and UAE. I’ve lost count in the amount unusual increased flights to military airports in the past weeks

 

[GaradShabeel]

This is starting to look very fishy.

Eritreans became Somali irredentists in the comments and quotes. Fair play to respond to the tweet like that.

Somalis and Eritreans teaming up for a possible invasion kkkk

Even the pro-Eri regime news sites are taking notice, hinting at possible involvement of Saudi Arabia if the stability of the Red Sea was threatened.

 

[Gaandheri]

Somalis and Eritreans teaming up for a possible invasion kkkk

Even the pro-Eri regime news sites are taking notice, hinting at possible involvement of Saudi Arabia if the stability of the Red Sea was threatened.

The Emiratis are looking for revenge they were kicked by IOG from Djibouti, Afwerki wasn’t letting them get Assab and Massawa. But they control majority of the ports in Somalia except Xamar and Garacad.

 

[GaradShabeel]

View attachment 304350

The Emiratis are looking for revenge they were kicked by IOG from Djibouti, Afwerki wasn’t letting them get Assab and Massawa. But they control majority of the ports in Somalia except Xamar and Garacad.

Don’t forget how the Sudanese army are fighting against the UAE backed RSF. Which means that they may loose out control of the country, especially around the Red Sea that is now controlled by SAF.

Xamar and Garaacad provide little strategic value. Obviously, the more ports and coast they control, the better for them. But nothing can beat the importance of the Red Sea.

 

[Gaandheri]

Don’t forget how the Sudanese army are fightings against the UAE backed RSF. Which means that they may loose out control of the country, especially around the Red Sea that is controlled by SAF.

Interesting what are the UAE planning for the Horn of Africa so far they have trained 10k Somali soldiers and want to train more if there demands are met, there also demanding HSM to fire all Islamist’s in his government? None stop military cargo between UAE to Ethiopia are they arming RSF through Ethiopia? UAE built an air base in Chad to arm RSF, The Russians are also backing RSF either way they get their naval port who ever wins between SAF and RSF.

Xamar and Garaacad provide little strategic value. The more ports (or countries) they control, the better. But nothing can beat the importance of the Red Sea.

They do have strategic values they talked to Deni about getting Garacad and told HSM end the agreement between FGS and the Turkish company that runs Xamar port. Their also after the Barawe, Merca, and Hobyo ports if it will be built.

 

[GaradShabeel]

Interesting what are the UAE planning for the Horn of Africa so far they have trained 10k Somali soldiers and want to train more if there demands are met, there also demanding HSM to fire all Islamist’s in his government? None stop military cargo between UAE to Ethiopia are they arming RSF through Ethiopia? The Russians are also backing RSF either way they get their naval port who ever wins between SAF and RSF.

I think UAE’s plan are increasing dominance in Somalia and getting closer with Ethiopia. I don’t know what happened between them and Eritrea, but I suppose that Ethiopia has more to offer and possibly mediate and facilitate access to Eritrea’s ports, (if not a war sometime in the future).

I would be in Ethiopia’s interest to ally with RSF, as SAF are closer with Egypt and may support them in the dam issue and Egyptian forces in the country. But Abiy recently invited Burhan, which may indicate his stance. Otherwise, he would’ve mediated between the two.

They do have strategic values they talked to Deni about getting Garacad and told HSM end the agreement between FGS and the Turkish company that runs Xamar port. Their also after the Barawe, Merca, and Hobyo ports if it will be built.

I should’ve worded it better. I meant that the Red Sea is more strategic than the Indian Ocean in general, but in particular for the UAE.

Their end goal is to exert massive influence in the region. Unfortunately, Yemen and Somalia are the easiest to prey on with their respective instability issues.

 

[Gaandheri]

I think UAE’s plan are increasing dominance in Somalia and getting closer with Ethiopia. I don’t know what happened between them and Eritrea, but I suppose that Ethiopia has more to offer and possibly mediate and facilitate access to Eritrea’s ports, (if not a war sometime in the future).

UAE is now being more involved in south-central Somalia they mainly focused on PL and SL, if UAE gets a hold of JL and KG which are the bread baskets of Somalia it’s going to be hard to remove them later on. UAE has invested almost $3 billion into Ethiopia and the import- export is at almost $1 billion, UAE also helped stabilize the Birr.

I would be in Ethiopia’s interest to ally with RSF, as SAF are closer with Egypt and may support them in the dam issue and Egyptian forces in the country. But Abiy recently invited Burhan, which may indicate his stance. Otherwise, he would’ve mediated between the two.

Ironically enough both Abiy and Afwerki support Hemedti over Burhan.

I should’ve worded it better. I meant that the Red Sea is more strategic than the Indian Ocean in general, but in particular for the UAE.

Yeah but they might use their control of Somali Indian Ocean ports against Kenya and Tanzania. The UAE has a Red Sea strategy of dominating this area of the world oil money is running out and Iran basically runs the strait of Hormuz theirs no one that can challenge them militarily expect US but even US navy where being captured by the Iranians.

Their end goal is to exert massive influence in the region. Unfortunately, Yemen and Somalia are the easiest to prey on with their respective instability issues.

In Yemen they have their lackeys the STC doing everything for them they also basically annexed Socotra. In Somalia it’s even more dangerous the security of Somalia has basically been handed to them on a silver plate, they have SL and PL on lock, and their main men as MOD.

 

[Step a side]

Another Ethiopian official, this time a federal MP and state minister, with a subtle message to neighboring countries

Damn! They including Djibouti’s Obock that faces the strait

 

[Noble]

Ethiopian officials trolling Eritreans