2020s geopolitical crystal ball

[xabashi]

Ethiopia’s army looks scary

Yes, but it is nothing compared to your profile image.

 

[Ras]

Even though I think Trump’s impeachment is warranted, despite it’s ineffectiveness (I think it’s a sign that things are at least working as they should in the Judicial system), I’m looking at the rising rate of impeachments and their substance.

To their credit, if you look at Democrat-lead impeachment efforts in terms of recent history, Trump’s impeachment and Nixon’s near impeachment both centered around serious concerns, but the most recent Republican-led impeachment effort regarding Clinton was about something as frivolous as an infidelity, as if the public should care about something as pedestrian as that.

What I see is its continued use as a political tool, and the Republicans retaliating on the next Democratic president.

US politics is turning into a race to the bottom so yh you're right they'll use impeachments as often as they filibuster...

Then again Trump is an outsider and you won't ever see an establishment President being scrutinized as much as him again.

Fairly sure his predecessors carried out plenty of dirty deals and coerced other world leaders but they'll never have to answer for those acts.

In reality a frivolous thing like cheating would be actually quite a normal thing to get impeached for not the dirty deals which both parties usually keep quite about.

They really want Trump out so they're breaking some unwritten rules here but it's likely they won't repeat it or no President would ever be safe again.

It's literally the nuclear option. Future Presidents will ensure that they'll have enough leverage to ward of any attempts (MAD standoff).

 

[VixR]

US politics is turning into a race to the bottom so yh you're right they'll use impeachments as often as they filibuster...

Then again Trump is an outsider and you won't ever see an establishment President being scrutinized as much as him again.

Fairly sure his predecessors carried out plenty of dirty deals and coerced other world leaders but they'll never have to answer for those acts.

In reality a frivolous thing like cheating would be actually quite a normal thing to get impeached for not the dirty deals which both parties usually keep quite about.

They really want Trump out so they're breaking some unwritten rules here but it's likely they won't repeat it or no President would ever be safe again.

It's literally the nuclear option. Future Presidents will ensure that they'll have enough leverage to ward of any attempts (MAD standoff).

I don’t agree with the whole Trump being an anti-establishment disrupter narrative.

But since your outlook is as grim as mine, where are you planning on groundhog-ing it.

 

[Ras]

I don’t agree with the whole Trump being an anti-establishment disrupter narrative.

But since your outlook is as grim as mine, where are you planning on groundhog-ing it.

Don't really have a grim view of the future like you.

Chaotic politics isn't the end all of everything. Corporations will take over their role gradually and humans will adapt like always.

Guess I'm a lot more jaded now than me in my early teens when I had great hope of a more perfect Utopian future.

As long as it isn't a dystopian brave New world where rat burgers are the norm I'll survive lol.

 

[Apollo]

Last day to make some predictions!

 

[Pipit]

Trump is not gonna get impeached

 

[Guure]

The rise of ultra nationalism in the west possibly facism.
China invest even more in Africa.

 

[beenleey]

Superpower by 2024
https://m.timesofindia.com/election...com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=TOIDesktop

 

[Karim]

Predictions for global geopolitics for the 2020s is the geopolitical tensions will continue to escalate over the course of the next seven years.

1. Sharpening tensions and heightened doubts concerning the U.S. role in the world will continue for several years.

2. The European Union will need to implement badly needed reforms to maintain its legitimacy.

3. Ongoing uncertainty surrounding future North Korea’s nuclear program threatens East Asian security.

4. Populism and dissent will spread across Latin America.

5. Expect increasing assertiveness from Beijing and Moscow as both governments seek to lock in competitive advantages.

6. The standoff between Russia and the West will continue throughout 2020.

7. China, for its part, may have domestic concerns to grapple with this year.

8. Expect Persisting Volatility in Southeast Asia.

9. Violent extremism, terrorism, and instability will continue to hangover Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the region’s fragile communal relations.

10. The Middle East and North Africa will see continued, if not escalating instability.

11. Sub-Saharan Africa will struggle with authoritarian regimes.

12. Threats from terrorist and insurgent groups will persist and are likely to become more decentralized.

https://globalsecurityreview.com/world-will-look-like-2025/

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[The alchemist]

This is based on current trends and not too speculative, as you may notice. It may be pointless for some, but it's cool to have the general layout, so you can independently manipulate ideas and come up with theories of how things will turn out with these basic conservative future estimations. Keep in mind that unforeseen events can greatly alter the trajectory of these factors to a great degree.

We will see a degree of economic power in emerging economies like Nigeria, Iran, Turkey, Indonesia, and Mexico.

Globally around 2 billion people will enter the middle class by 2030.

China will soon be responsible for 40% of global renewable capacity growth.

China will have more access to 40% of global GDP represented trough the Belt and Road and the maritime silk road.

A scarcity of full-time workers in the developed world will make it challenging to maintain GDP growth. Productivity growth can be brought on by emerging technologies. Still, AI and automation can decouple economic growth from employment, increasing the GDP that goes to capital rather than to labor — thereby increasing inequality within societies.

India will have 10 million new working-age residences per year in the coming decades. But it needs to improve its energy, manufacturing, and transportation infrastructure to accommodate this growth. The contrast between Indias thriving technology sector, and the less spectacular manufacturing sector, suggests the gap between the elite education it offers in its universities and poor overall basic education.

Cultural preferences for boys in India and China have skewed sex ratios, which may lead to demographic problems.

Net migration is projected to account for 82% of population growth in high-income countries by 2050. And developed nations with aging populations may find that their people do not have the skills required to create and use the technologies of the future.

Technology is making governing more difficult. Technological diffusion and communications connectivity can lead to social control slipping away from the primacy of the state, in several directions at once. It allows transnational alliances, such as alliances among multinational corporations, non-governmental organizations, and other multilateral organizations at one end of the spectrum, or transnational terrorists or criminal groups at the other end. It allows as well, internal groupings. Including cities and states to challenge central governments, and to create instabilities even without large militaries, economies or populations. With non-recognized governmental entities.

The growing global middle class can feel unsatisfaction with prevailing leadership, and provoke instability due to many technologies could be weaponized by non-sate actors. Grenade launchers can be manufactured using 3D printers, CRISPR gene editing may facilitate the creation of biological weapons, and cyber-physical systems offer new angles of attack and challenge traditional definitions of warfare.