2020s geopolitical crystal ball

[Ras]

be hopeful mah nigga

A country cant stay the same for another 10 years. something big is gonna happen to somalia

That was my prediction for just the year 2020.

Here are my predictions for the upcoming decade.

1. Somalia will get back on it's feet in 2022 after another year of failure after the fake elections force the population to sack the presidential Villa and kick out AMISON.

2. Either that or we get the arms embargo removed and we finally can get to the business of nation building (I.e bringing the civl war to a conclusion).

3. However by then the AU would have built a continental military and could be forced to invade us by global powers that want the status quo back. Just like Ethiopia did in 2006.

Some other predictions:

4. More long term dictators will start dying out.

Most of those that gained power in the 80s & 90s would be nearing the death bed or senility and that's just a recipe for political unrest.

5. China will start to involve itself more in geopolitics but we won't see much of a response from the West since multinationals will lobby for them in return for access to the new global Chinese market (south East Asia, middle East, Africa, Latin America and of course China itself).

6. By 2030 most new cars being sold will be electric as the cost of ownership of ICE cars can no longer be justified.

7. We'll start to see autonomous only highways and roads that are much cheaper to build and with higher throughput. Imagine getting to anywhere in your city within 10 mins... No traffic.

8. The first asteroid will get mined for resources before 2030, kicking of a new era of abundance and prosperity. This is why I'm not so bothered about automation... Even if bots are better there'll always be more work available.

 

[VixR]

China will probably continue in its upward trend, even despite their problems (too much debt, bankruptcies...it’s companies are borrowing money from its govt to keep their companies going in a sort of Ponzi scheme), and other Asian countries/economies will benefit off them, just like how Canada benefited off the rise of America.

Even the US’s dissolution of TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership) and the tariffs are designed to put heat on China to open its economy up, will probably not succeed. China has been through this before.

This situation is identical to the Opium wars (Cliffnotes THEN: Europe wants to buy China’s silks/porcelain products-> The demand is so high China becomes enriched by Europe’s silver, while no silver is coming towards them from China leading to a massive trade deficit -> They then realize China’s interest in opium, so they facilitate it flooding into the Chinese market, so that now suddenly the silver is coming back from China in the form of a population addicted to opium -> China outlaws opium as its factory workers become useless junkies -> A war ensues that China cannot win, and it’s ports are forced open. This leads to the era the Chinese call “The Century of Humiliation” which culminated in to the eventual collapse of the Qing Dynasty.

Cliffnotes NOW: Millions of American jobs were lost due to the trade agreement between China and the US in the 70s, but the goods were cheap thanks cheap Chinese labor, which quickly made the US one of China’s largest importers/consumers -> the US/Europe see how China has become enriched by it, and now the Europeans and Americans want to sell to China, and threaten it through tariffs and trade disruptions-> China naturally has the opposing interest, and though they’ve once again become the world’s factory, they now have the benefit of a well-developed, richer population of a billion consumers of their own (though with cracks), which is why Xi Jinping stresses self-reliance, and why they might pull through this time.

 

[VixR]

• Another global financial collapse. The last big one started off with Iceland in 2007, which no one payed attention to, bc who thinks of Iceland? Then a few months later Ireland was bankrupt, then a few weeks after that Bear Sterns in NY, then Northern Rock in the U.K., etc. Pretty soon, the whole world was noticing.This time around it looks like the same thing, random markets no one pays attention to: Turkey, Venezuela, Argentina, Latvia, some banks in India. These are smaller economies, but it seems to be building. This financial collapse will be so huge, it will spur the world leaving behind the fiat economy, and turn towards a resource-backed, digital currency. Paper money will disappear. Since the 2008 collapse, the global market has been keeping it at bay through a fake bull market by printing money like insane and lowering interest rates to record lows worldwide. Japan has the interesting strategy of its govt. buying it’s own stocks to keep it afloat, though hardly still sustainable long-term. Then there’s Brexit, which might intensify economic turmoil as well, depending on how it resolves itself.

• Speaking of Brexit, the EU has to establish trade agreements in their interest as Britain leaves it, and the US continues to criticize their trade relationships with it as being less beneficial to the US. Double-digit unemployment rates (leading to lowered economic demand due to people not having the buying power) in many Euro countries like France, Italy, Greece, Spain also challenges the EU to find new ways to grow. The Euro will inevitably fail.

• The US will be plagued by opportunistic powers as it continues to overextend itself (we have huge economic deficits, overzealous agendas and overextension militarily and politically...too many wars over the last few decades, which many other Western countries were able to conserve themselves from by keeping to themselves). Americans are also losing zest/interest in American exceptionalism/greatness, even on the Right, which has traditionally been on the side of our war machine. For the first time ever, the left and right are against it. For example, you have Trump supporters chanting, “America First!”. Any country/empire which overextended itself saw itself head towards crisis, especially if we’re internally moving towards preferring isolation at that same time. Not to mention, how we’ll bleed internally if we elect a far left candidate who basically promises to cripple us further through domestic overextension, the likes of which we see in Euro countries (free college, nationalizing healthcare and taking it out of the private sector, corporate breakdowns leading to our best corporations leaving our shores).

• NATO will dismantle due to lack of support from the US, to be replaced by a European coalition. US leadership in Obama overlooked it while giving it lip service, but in Trump has newly made it OK to speak poorly of it (I don’t think this will go away), which has lead to European leaders feeling comfortable enough to openly criticize the organization as well. France’s Macron recently said of NATO in an Economist interview, “What we are currently experiencing is the brain death of NATO.”

• Trump will win a second term, and the president following him will be impeached.

 

[VixR]

Nixon is the dajjal of US democracy. Forget Watergate, which is all anyone talks about now, he abandoned the gold standard, and is responsible for that horrible trade agreement with China that puts us in the position we are today. La3natul’allah 3laihi.

 

[Ras]

the president following him will be impeached.

Why?

 

[VixR]

Why?

Its getting contentious in US politics. There are only three successful impeachments in US history so far, look at the trend:

1868 - Andrew Johnson

1973 - Nixon (resigned before he could be) - doesn’t count

1998 - Bill Clinton

2019 - Donald Trump

 

[Ras]

Its getting contentious in US politics. There are only three successful impeachments in US history so far, look at the trend:

1868 - Andrew Johnson

1973 - Nixon (resigned before he could be) - doesn’t count

1998 - Bill Clinton

2019 - Donald Trump

Still doesn't explain why you think the next president after Trump will get impeached.

By then we would've either had a recession and the Democrats would've taken over or everything is still fine and Trump's successor would just ride on his tailcoat.

In each scenario, no faction would have the appetite for another impeachment campaign.

Agree with most the other predictions.

 

[Xasusi]

China will get richer and will continue to gain momentum.
HK will be completely assimilated into China.
The USA will remain static.
Russias movements are uncertain.
EU federalisation.
No Major Conflicts.
The UK and the USA will actively be hostile towards China.


Somalia will not develop until an actual power bets on it. Turkey isnt that power. And it wont be china. Perhaps the US will become reinterested.

 

[Yahya]

*The UK will suffer 10 more yrs of austerity
*France will have more protests, especially naked feminist protests (lots of those for sure)
*Poland will continue to be irrelavant and langaab, but will go on like the town drunk about how they were once Europe's saviour
*Native indians will secede From america and their main import will be alcohol
*A man in india will invent a portable toilet, but to his dismay there will be many outraged indians that will protest this and they will claim oppression as the government tries to force them to abandon their culture
*A young hong kong resistance fighter will assasinate Winnie the pooh. Many will mourn the demise of their great emperor
*Kim jong un will step out greet the crowd ,when a gust of wind will carry his toupe away revealing his hereditary bidaar to the shock of many who have been forced to adopt a shitty hair cut to compensate for the Jong family insecurity
*Somewhere in canada is a Canuck apologising for interrupting his wife and her lover during their affair
*A hebrew israelite assasinates a israeli PM. As he is being dragged away reports state he bellowed " Cave cracker don stole my History!!" and talks of the white man "Going into slavery"

 

[xabashi]

Egypt will bomb Ethiopia’s renaissance dam

I don't think so. We ain't fools ...

... and el-sisi got the memo

France and Ethiopia joint military cooperation (Dec 19, 2019)

 

[Pipit]

I don't think so. We ain't fools ...

... and el-sisi got the memo

France and Ethiopia joint military cooperation (Dec 19, 2019)

Ethiopia’s army looks scary

 

[Yahya]

Japan will capitulate and will go full Sweden mode somewhere by the end of 2020s.

Japanese women are sexless and so are japanese men. How long can they hold on if they aren't having children. Soon they will have to cave in, but i suspect they will just bring in darker asians to fill in the gaps.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2...n-almost-half-young-men-women-virgins-survey/

 

[Macalin M]

I don't think so. We ain't fools ...

... and el-sisi got the memo

France and Ethiopia joint military cooperation (Dec 19, 2019)

Egypt’s fallen off anyways they’re going to meet the same fate the other Arab countries met. You guys are safe.

 

[Yahya]

I don't think so. We ain't fools ...

... and el-sisi got the memo

France and Ethiopia joint military cooperation (Dec 19, 2019)

I'm happy for my oromo brothers. I will be even better as if they secede they will take the weapons with them.

:siilaanyolaugh:

 

[Pipit]

I'm happy for my oromo brothers. I will be even better as if they secede they will take the weapons with them.

:siilaanyolaugh:

Please explain saxib

 

[tyrannicalmanager]

I don't think so. We ain't fools ...

... and el-sisi got the memo

France and Ethiopia joint military cooperation (Dec 19, 2019)

a nation thats unable to feed 10% of there own people without foreign aid is now able to buy nuclear war heads?

 

[Omar del Sur]

2020's prediction.... I think we have a second Trump term, then a Democrat president once that is done.....

Democrat cracks down on hate speech and the "antisemitism" which is growing like wildfire as of this writing......

freedom of speech basically becomes extinct in the US..... within 10-20 (I think 10 but 20 if not 10 imo) years from now you get arrested in the US if you say things online such as "Jews control the media"

under this Democrat term and under the new anti-hate speech laws (pretty much saying anything about the Jews that the Jews don't like is classified as hate speech).....

the alt-right sort of fizzles out........

embers will remain but the mainstream Republican party will adopt a completely different, pro-Israel form of "conservativism" which will not tolerate any form of "anti-semitism" (including anti-Zionism a la Ilhan Omar)..........

that being said that is just my prediction as to where things are headed and I do think the predictions will be correct but I believe other things will happen as well which pretty much no one expects, which surprise us and which are not in line with what the elites have planned..... there will be new openings for people like me who like to question and poke holes in the mainstream narrative

too many people are becoming red pilled on certain things and I think this will lead to certain things which the (((elites))) will have to try to shut down in the future

 

[Yahya]

Please explain saxib

The oromos are at odds with the other tribes in ethiopia and if they choose to leave the fold, be sure they will take the heavy artillery with them. Lets not forget how recently the amhara attempted a coup to take over the military.

 

[VixR]

Still doesn't explain why you think the next president after Trump will get impeached.

By then we would've either had a recession and the Democrats would've taken over or everything is still fine and Trump's successor would just ride on his tailcoat.

In each scenario, no faction would have the appetite for another impeachment campaign.

Agree with most the other predictions.

Even though I think Trump’s impeachment is warranted, despite it’s ineffectiveness (I think it’s a sign that things are at least working as they should in the Judicial system), I’m looking at the rising rate of impeachments and their substance.

To their credit, if you look at Democrat-lead impeachment efforts in terms of recent history, Trump’s impeachment and Nixon’s near impeachment both centered around serious concerns, but the most recent Republican-led impeachment effort regarding Clinton was about something as frivolous as an infidelity, as if the public should care about something as pedestrian as that.

What I see is its continued use as a political tool, and the Republicans retaliating on the next Democratic president.

 

[xabashi]

The oromos are at odds with the other tribes in ethiopia and if they choose to leave the fold, be sure they will take the heavy artillery with them. Lets not forget how recently the amhara attempted a coup to take over the military.

The Amhara coup is just baloney. It never happened. The Amhara and Oromo party in the ruling coalition just wanted to take some militants in Amhara region out and they used the coup drama. There was no coup whatsoever in Amhara region. In reality PM Abiy has more supporters in Amhara than in Oromia. And Oromos getting all the guns and declaring independence is just a wet dream. Only those who don't know the internals of Ethiopian and Oromo politics and the make up the Ethiopian state apparatus say something like this. This is nonsense.