#1 Reason why the Arab States will never recognize Somaliland

[Cumar]

This has been said countless times before but it bears repeating. If Somaliland secedes from the union, it is game over for Hawiye politically in Somalia. There is no simple way around it. If Somaliland secedes on a tribal basis, Darood would form a large plurality in the new Somali state. I'd wager most Darood would agree to an independent Somaliland if we gave up our land claims to the Harti tribal areas. If anything, it's Hawiye who should be more anti SL than Darood given its in their best interests to be on a level playing field with Darood.

@Starscream what do you think my guy?

 

[Shushue]

This has been said countless times before but it bears repeating. If Somaliland secedes from the union, it is game over for Hawiye politically in Somalia. There is no simple way around it. If Somaliland secedes on a tribal basis, Darood would form a large plurality in the new Somali state. I'd wager most Darood would agree to an independent Somaliland if we gave up our land claims to the Harti tribal areas. If anything, it's Hawiye who should be more anti SL than Darood given its in their best interests to be on a level playing field with Darood.

Won’t you think recognition would start conflict over territories with Puntland.

 

[World]

This has been said countless times before but it bears repeating. If Somaliland secedes from the union, it is game over for Hawiye politically in Somalia. There is no simple way around it. If Somaliland secedes on a tribal basis, Darood would form a large plurality in the new Somali state. I'd wager most Darood would agree to an independent Somaliland if we gave up our land claims to the Harti tribal areas. If anything, it's Hawiye who should be more anti SL than Darood given its in their best interests to be on a level playing field with Darood.

1) Darood isn't a united block.
2) Darood and Hawiye are roughly the same size in Somalia proper. If NFD and Somali Galbeed joined Somalia, then yes your right that Darood would be the majority.

 

[Cumar]

1) Darood isn't a united block.
2) Darood and Hawiye are roughly the same size in Somalia proper. If NFD and Somali Galbeed joined Somalia, then yes your right that Darood would be the majority.

I was thinking that purely in terms in a federation system of govt, if the SSC (Harti portions) joins a united Somalia, that's another Darood Majority federal state which increases their position relative to Hawiye. Basically I am talking about balance of power which is important when it comes to things like amending the constitution, formula for approving additional federal member states etc.

So you'd have the following:

Darood:

SSC-Harti regions

Puntland

Jubaland

Hawiye:

Galmudug

HiirShabelle

Banaadir state??? (This could happen as a counter to SSC joining but i doubt it)

Rahanweyn:

South West State of Somalia

 

[World]

I was thinking that purely in terms in a federation system of govt, if the SSC (Harti portions) joins a united Somalia, that's another Darood Majority federal state which increases their position relative to Hawiye. Basically I am talking about balance of power which is important when it comes to things like amending the constitution, approving additional federal member states etc.

So you'd have the following:

Darood:

SSC-Harti regions

Puntland

Jubaland

Hawiye:

Galmudug

HiirShabelle

Banaadir state??? (This could happen as a counter to SSC joining but i doubt it)

Rahanweyn:

South West State of Somalia

Yeah in that case, you're right.

But I still find the whole federalism thing a bit iffy considering the fact that Rahanweyn although a bit smaller than Hawiye and Darood, only have one federal state whereas Hawiye and Darod have two. If it's based on population size, then Hawiye/Darood are only at max 20 % larger each.