Somalia seems to be entering a drought worse than 2011 or 2017

[bidenkulaha]

Fortunately we’ve gone through the worst alx

 

[Prince of HS]

Fortunately we’ve gone through the worst alx

Why are eelays/ reer bay and bakool most affected by the famine. I always wondered this but never bothered to find the answer

 

[reer_ugaas_hussein]

Why are eelays/ reer bay and bakool most affected by the famine. I always wondered this but never bothered to find the answer

It has to do with their livelihood (as agro-pastoralists they use out more of the soil which combined with climate change is fatal), the change from self-sufficient food crops like sorghum to cash crops sold to the gulf nations and al shabaab control of the rural areas. Al shabaab imposes crazy taxes and is the biggest reason why the people can't adopt to the droughts and flee to the cities like baydhoba and xamar.

Agriculture in general a sector where a strong government is necessary that can intervene and regulate conditions to ensure food security, once al shabaab is defeated and with thought out agricultural policies the government can turn bay and bakool into the breadbasket of Somalia

Here is a good article on this:
https://riftvalley.net/news/bay-and...adbasket-turned-epicenter-humanitarian-crisis

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

The death toll in 2023 is now officially higher than the 2017-2018 drought.
2022's death toll is 37% higher than 2017-2018, with 43,000 deaths recorded in 2022.

https://www.unicef.org/esa/documents/insight-action-examining-mortality-somalia

 

[Burqad]

The Shabelle is a massive sesame farm while the juba is a cattle trough now. Food aid makes growing grain even more unprofitable than it usually is.

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

Projected food situation until May.
It seems that large portions of Bay and the Shabelle Valley remain on the cusp of famine.

Data for Ethiopia Somali Region is very worrisome also.

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

Somalia's will have to import 1.185 million tons of cereals in the current period (Aug 2022 to Jul 2023). 49% of this will be rice, 18% wheat, and 33% coarse grains mostly maize.

Estimated costs of just importing this much food is ~ $475 million.
This is a fairly conservative estimate using global commodity prices. Prices are likely significantly higher for Somalia given the size of the ports and the lack of organized gov procurement.

All of Somalia's livestock exports in 2021 were barely $200 million. All of exports would barely cover 45% of our food import bill. Somalia is being kept afloat by remittances and aid, and its dependence on the good will of its diaspora and the International Community is growing every year.

 

[Dima&Damo]

Heavy rains incoming

 

[Dima&Damo]

What a start of the year in Puntland Dal Udug

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

It looks to be a large storm. It may take Puntland out of the frought if it drops a year's worth of rain.

 

[Dima&Damo]

 

[Dima&Damo]

Massive rain storms in Puntland

 

[Dima&Damo]

These past 5 month it has rained every month in dhul udug

 

[Dima&Damo]

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

WFP is only able to cover 67% of the caloric needs of the 10 million people (!) receiving food aid.
Aid has been substantially ramped up and yet the level of hunger has only barely budged.

WFP is becoming more efficient in translating money into calories, but the level of need is enormus even by Somali standards. Without WFP help, millions of Somalis would have died in the past 12 months.

2023 Gu performance is not enough to counterbalance 6 consecutive failed rainy seasons.
Major food producing areas: Bay, Hiraan & Middle Shabelle, remain in drought.

 

[menowaawaa]

is this due to global warming and will things get progressively worse throughout the decade?

i don’t get how we have to deal with both flooding and droughts

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

The United States is providing 70% of the aid recieved thus far this year.
Need remains very high given the very low level of food production this Gu.
The international community increased aid to Somalia 2.3x from 2021 to 2022.
I don't think this new level of $2.5 billion per year is sustainable for the US and the Europeans.
Somalia is beginning to reach Israel levels of aid.

 

[bidenkulaha]

 

[Hilmaam]

The most fertile land is along the river yet they seem to be hardest hit.

 

[Hilmaam]

North getting greener with all the rain. Hearing from family back home livestock getting fat producing good meat, milk and butter and life is good for herders with this barwaqo