The reason HSM went from 52 votes in the 1st round to 110 in the second round was , he got all the other Abgaal votes ( 39 votes of Shariif Sheikh, 12 votes of Osoble plus the 15 votes of Abdirahman Abdishukur). You can see the entire Hawiye voted against Kheyre except his clan. If he had managed to campaign with Shariif Sheikh , he would have gone to the final and all Deni and Farmajo voters would have gone to him.He is backed by Russia, Norway, Hormuud as well Murusade tycoons who are loaded. The guy has plenty of money so it’s not going to be an issue. I like the way you explained the possible scenarios and by far it’s the one that makes the most sense.