Prof. Xasan Sh. Cali explains why secession is a bigger threat the Khwarij

[Thegoodshepherd]

The following statement has greater weight than the one you underscored, and negates his whole argument.

• 'Dhul Somaliyed lama taaban karo': min 0600.

In referencing anthropogenic existential threats to nation states, the good Prof. is advancing what is known in global politics as 'material revolution' camouflaged in national security, the deadliest threat to human civilisation. If one pays close attention, the good Prof. reduced the entire case to 'commerce' by, and for foreign nations. Bright students, at Yale & Harvard, of International Relations shall have a field day dissecting, if dichotomising his lecture, which only peeks interest in neophyte enthusiasts of modern geopolitics, purely from a financial angle; folly in his analyses could easily be detected, but that is a matter for keen minds on the subject.

His core argument is grounded on colonial legacy and ideology, even if he is arguing against it, in the spirit of nationalism, but not in the interest of [all] Somalis. President Hasan Sh. makes similar arguments, and it is as if they have been fed from the same chalice: a theme popular with Xamar-centric elites. Here is the problem with the ill-born arguments of the Xamar-centric elites: they do not consider S Galbeed and NFD Somali territories, argue against irredentism (greater .So of all Somali territories), and by extension any arguments they present against secessionism, as in the case of SL, is baseless at best, if indefensible at worse. To put it succinctly, had it not been for the 1960 unification, they would not have been making this 'nationalist' argument, or discussing matters concerning SL. Theirs is solely informed by self-preservation, and not by the greater good of the national interest.

Xamar-centric elites hardly ever articulate this point, but here is the overarching sentiment one hears in their discourse: A future shape of Somali lands:

• In favour of North-South Confederacy. This is advanced by the view the North (SL) would eventually settle for Confederacy. Do bear in mind, this is grounded on colonial legacy, and it is as if Somali history and existence started with European colonisers in the 1890s, and darn anything, which existed before the Saancadaale set foot on Somali lands.
• Wholly and aggressively opposed to federalism, which the East (PL / SSC-Khatumo) champions.
• Would bet their all on Centralism, which they consider greatly benefits the South. FMSs like SW, JL, GM, and HS are considered within the fold, and as Laftagareen stated: 'they turn wherever direction the purse holder dictates'.
• Conceptually agree, and accept S Galbeed as part of greater Habasha.
• NFD does not even enter their equation, and could not care less as to its future state, ceded to Kikuya or not.
• Consider Jibouti a non-Somali territory.

This is circa. 1949 all over again.

I argue:

• Neither SL nor al Shabab pose existential threats to Somali nation state.
• Somali territories are victim to competing, if diverging geopolitical interests, and
• Somali political elites are only advancing said interests.

His analysis is somewhat flawed in the beginning, but I think after the 6:55 minute mark he is quite correct. I strongly disagree with you that Somaliland does not pose an existential threat to the Somali nation-state. I think that if Somaliland were to gain recognition from number of states, the Somali nation-state would be in serious jeopardy of dissolution.

 

[Itsnotthateasy]

His analysis is somewhat flawed in the beginning, but I think after the 6:55 minute mark he is quite correct. I strongly disagree with you that Somaliland does not pose an existential threat to the Somali nation-state. I think that if Somaliland were to gain recognition from number of states, the Somali nation-state would be in serious jeopardy of dissolution.

You just don't like Somaliland because it puts a border through Harti tribal lands. It's not that deep. Stop trying to draw people into this absurd notion that Somaliland is a threat.

 

[𐒋𐒖𐒆𐒔𐒖𐒕𐒈]

His analysis is somewhat flawed in the beginning, but I think after the 6:55 minute mark he is quite correct. I strongly disagree with you that Somaliland does not pose an existential threat to the Somali nation-state. I think that if Somaliland were to gain recognition from number of states, the Somali nation-state would be in serious jeopardy of dissolution.

You raise a valid point, and I am not discounting potential threats from either, but I am seeing greater threats than those highlighted. If the whole nation finds itself occupied, Palestine style, we would not be discussing secession, would we? Further, I wanted to highlight deductive flaw in the arguments put forth by the political elite in Xamar.

You just don't like Somaliland because it puts a border through Harti tribal lands. It's not that deep.

Why would he, or any rational person find a line being drawn, in vagary, between kin and kith acceptable? Surely, you would not want Burco annexed, would you? if no, and it is unacceptable to you, then why expect of others? We are yet to recover from erstwhile lines already drawn in the West and deep South.

 

[Itsnotthateasy]

You raise a valid point, and I am not discounting potential threats from either, but I am seeing greater threats than those highlighted. If the whole nation finds itself occupied, Palestine style, we would not be discussing secession, would we? Further, I wanted to highlight deductive flaw in the arguments put forth by the political elite in Xamar.

Why would he, or any rational person find a line being drawn, in vagary, between kin and kith acceptable? Surely, you would not want Burco annexed, would you? if no, and it is unacceptable to you, then why expect of others? We are yet to recover from erstwhile lines already drawn in the West and deep South.

I don't buy your 'borders bad' argument.
Or your defintion of 'we'.

 

[reer]

His analysis is somewhat flawed in the beginning, but I think after the 6:55 minute mark he is quite correct. I strongly disagree with you that Somaliland does not pose an existential threat to the Somali nation-state. I think that if Somaliland were to gain recognition from number of states, the Somali nation-state would be in serious jeopardy of dissolution.

credit to isaaq for scoring amazing own goals. first of all not declaring themselves successors of the somali state. and the second own goal declaring darod lands part of their project therefore making it impossible to achieve.
if they stuck to irir lands it would be dangerous.

 

[Itsnotthateasy]

credit to isaaq for scoring amazing own goals. first of all not declaring themselves successors of the somali state. and the second own goal declaring darod lands part of their project therefore making it impossible to achieve.
if they stuck to irir lands it would be dangerous.

A bit too obvious of a troll that one.

 

[𐒋𐒖𐒆𐒔𐒖𐒕𐒈]

I don't buy your 'borders bad' argument.
Or your defintion of 'we'.

See if you could make an attempt in answering the questions instead of opting for the path of least resistance. I have confidence in your ability to do so.

 

[Itsnotthateasy]

See if you could make an attempt in answering the questions instead of opting for the path of least resistance. I have confidence in your ability to do so.

Do you think any FMS or sub-clan plot of land would decline becoming the 51st state of the US?

Do you think anyone would be grudge them going?

 

[𐒋𐒖𐒆𐒔𐒖𐒕𐒈]

You arguments aren't sincere so I don't want to put too much effort into it.

Assumptions aglore. In reality, you can only engage with people, who are unfamiliar with the region, but once faced with a local, your best move is to tuck tail, for you know you could not possibly spin the same yarn. On your bike, off you go.

 

[celeizo]

Our gov depends on AID, we got foreign occupation, our sea is patrolled by ajnabis, we’ve got al kebab whose killin our brightest people, majority of the population got severe PTSD, 100+ isbaroos all over the land and no justice system if were honest.

up until Bixi i honestly didnt care about SL doing their thing they were no diff to PL then, after all the Mogadishu gov has no say in either JL,PL nor SL. The issue is Bixi playing a dangerous game, but we got more important stuff to tackle for now.

 

[Itsnotthateasy]

Assumptions aglore. In reality, you can only engage with people, who are unfamiliar with the region, but once faced with a local, your best move is to tuck tail, for you know you could not possibly spin the same yarn. On your bike, off you go.

I didn't even know you were a local.

 

[reer]

President Hasan Sh. makes similar arguments, and it is as if they have been fed from the same chalice: a theme popular with Xamar-centric elites. Here is the problem with the ill-born arguments of the Xamar-centric elites: they do not consider S Galbeed and NFD Somali territories,

yes.

 

[𐒋𐒖𐒆𐒔𐒖𐒕𐒈]

I didn't even know you were a local.

Why would you when you have got your assumptions.

 

[Itsnotthateasy]

Why would you when you have got your assumptions.

An assumption on your part actually.

 

[𐒋𐒖𐒆𐒔𐒖𐒕𐒈]

yes.

See, he is so fucking intellectually challenged, and feeding that rubbish to young minds, he is incapable of distinguishing between the plight of Somalis in occupied Somali territories, and Diaspora communities, who at own volition migrated to foreign lands (not of their own choosing, but migrated nonetheless).

 

[𐒋𐒖𐒆𐒔𐒖𐒕𐒈]

An assumption on your part actually.

If you could not discuss the issue at hand, let us leave it at that.

Postscript:
By the way, as a point of reference, do not question someone's sincerity in discussions, even if you may think you do know, when in actuality, you do not.

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

You just don't like Somaliland because it puts a border through Harti tribal lands. It's not that deep. Stop trying to draw people into this absurd notion that Somaliland is a threat.

Opposing the creation of a border between Harti is a very deep point. Listen to what Jama Mohamed Ghalib AUN had to say about secession's impact in 1995. How much more integration between SSC and Puntland has taken place in the 30 years since he wrote this? Warsangeli have 8 seats out of 33 in Bosaso's city council, or 25%. Do you think it is in their interest to be split into two?

Last, but not least, there is the economic factor. Somali people on both sides of the former colonial frontier with Somalia —which again becomes the common border between Somalia proper and the newly declared Republic of Somaliland —have since independence in 1960, considerably developed mutual co-operation, trade and extended markets. Reversing that situation must cause a great deal of economic loss and disruption. Some apologists for UDI narrowly argue that Somalia-Somaliland economic links are easily replaceable by new trade connections with Ethiopia. While their assumption might have some validity, it will only be for people who live west of a line drawn from the Gulf of Aden at Berbera, through Burao up to the 8th parallel at Bohotleh. It will be quite the opposite for those who live east of that line, the majority of whom are already greatly dependent on the port of Bosaso and its hinterland. Trade with Ethiopia is a positive new development which can be quite viable because of geographical proximity and it should be encouraged and extended at all levels. It is, however, clearly preposterous to argue that while some people in Somaliland after more than thirty years of social and economic intercourse with other Somalis, can complain of differences in ways of life to the extent that they can no longer co-exist yet at the same time claim they can do just that with the people of Ethiopia, most of whom have different languages, religions and customs. Indeed, it seems to me that nothing can be achieved by total separation that could not have been achieved while maintaining some sort of loose association with the Somali Republic. Much more can and sadly probably will be lost.

Secession is not a viable goal, come to the negotiating table with something other than secession.

 

[Yazi]

Thanks to Ethiopia, Somaliland recognition is ever so close. If a single country recognizes Somaliland, the rest will follow as the taboo has been broken and all major powers wish to secure their interest in Bab Al Mandab. It's the cold war all over again and Somaliland will finally be able to capitalize on it's strategic location to regain the long elusive recognition. We're in a position of strength and there is nothing HSM or Somalia could about it. If Somaliland does not gets it's well deserved recognition now they will never will in the future. We're the closest we ever been there is absolutely no incentive to even hear what Somalia has to offer. 12 years of bad faith negotiations and broken promises led to mistrust between both sides. HSM knows he has no more cards to play with Somaliland. The Djibouti meeting showed how much of an idiot he is running back to Mogadishu and announcing the return of Somaliland only to get humiliated with the announcement of MoU and flying everywhere doing damage control. Than shamefully going live on Camera saying we don't mind dealing with Ethiopia but they have to come through us, which basically discredited the "Anoo Soomali" rhetorics from his supporters and made many of his own people turn against him.



There has been never a better time for Somaliland than today, we'll witness the signing of the agreement officially in couple days 31st of Jan.