Is Ethiopia’s disintegration an inevitable and necessary evil?
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HoodHawiye
polygamist
fools on this forum talkin bout "ayyo you think habesha finna disintegrate real quick?" meanwhile habesha is EXPANDING and annexing somaliland in all but name. Somalis deserve all that we are getting when fools like you exist among our ranks.Potential harms of disintegration must be weighed against consequences of holding Ethiopia together by force. Ethiopia is a failing state rapidly rushing toward disintegration.
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Ethiopia was created as a dependent colonial empire with the assistance of European imperial powers in multipronged wars of conquest waged by Emperor Menelik II in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries.
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Status quo
Since Abiy came to power in 2018, multipronged wars have once again erupted between the Ethiopian state and its constituent nations, namely Tigray, Oromia, and Amhara, even with the help of a foreign, bloodthirsty antagonist, Eritrea, in Tigray.
The ongoing hidden war in Oromia was reenergized in 2018 within months of Abiy being named prime minister by the then-ruling party, the Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF).
The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), as the senior party in the EPRDF coalition, was forced to accept a new prime minister from a junior member, the Oromo People’s Democratic Organization (OPDO), due to the unrelenting struggle of the Oromo youth—known as Qeerroo/Qarree.
The new government quickly turned against the Oromo popular movement and denied the protesters’ demands. It adopted mass killing and imprisonment while systematically dismantling their peaceful struggle, effectively forcing many of them to join the armed resistance led by the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA).
When its attempts to obliterate the OLA failed, the Abiy regime turned to a state-sanctioned policy of “drying the pond to kill the fish.” It deployed the federal and regional security forces, Amhara and Oromo militias, and local settler Amhara groups in Oromia to loot, rape, and kill at will.
In the meantime, Abiy demolished the ruling party and formed a new party in 2019, the Prosperity Party, to promote his imperial ambition in the mold of emperors Menelik II and Haile Selassie I.
Peaceful disintegration?
Ethiopia is at a crossroads and the roads all lead to disintegration. The only real unknown is whether this results from multiple future bloody civil wars or is done through a negotiated orderly breaking apart supported by international actors.
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Since the 1980s, the world has seen the birth of new nations. The breakup of the former Yugoslavia was an extraordinarily violent affair that dragged on throughout the 1990s, while Eritrea and South Sudan only became independent following decades of civil war.
The consequences of how these countries were created include simmering tensions in the former Yugoslavia, political instability, intercommunal conflict, and civil wars in Sudan and South Sudan, the Ethio-Eritrean war from 1998-2000, and Eritrea’s devastating participation in Ethiopia’s most recent civil war.
On the other hand, the splitting apart of Czechoslovakia and the Soviet Union was accomplished through a negotiated and peaceful breakaway. Regions like Quebec in Canada have also peacefully held referendums on the question of secession.
The question is whether the Ethiopian regime and its Western allies are willing to avoid a violent disintegration that costs millions of lives, destroys the meager regional economy, destabilizes the region, and leads to chaotic mass migration.
Is Ethiopia’s disintegration an inevitable and necessary evil? - Ethiopia Insight
Potential harms of disintegration must be weighed against consequences of holding Ethiopia together by force.www.ethiopia-insight.com
They aren't expanding shit. If they couldn't do so when they were at the peak of their strength under the TPLF and when Somalia was at its lowest, then they won't now.
HoodHawiye
polygamist
damn bro i guess somaliland DID NOT just give habesha a naval base, you should tell president HSM
I read this report the other day describing this massacre in Ethiopia. It’s from an Amhara website so there may be some bias but it was still and informative read. They claime that FANO attacked the government first then they retreated from the town. Once FANO retreated, the Ethiopian military entered the town and massacred at least 89 civilians. This happened on 1/29. There’s a full report at the bottom of the page. AUN to the civilians who died
www.amharaamerica.org
Major US news agency are reporting on this massacre now. Maybe this could be the turning event that damages Ethiopia’s goodwill with the west. They already are on thin ice from the Tigray war
apnews.com
I just wish Somali massacres in Tuli Gulled and West Sitti also received the same coverage
Preliminary Report on the Merawi Massacre
Updated February 5, 2024The Amhara Association of America (AAA) has verified that on January 29, 2024, Abiy regime forces massacred at least 89 unarmed civilians in Merawi town (Amhara Region, Ethiopia). On that day, heavy gunfire exchange took place in Merawi town and surrounding villages...
www.amharaamerica.org
US calls for investigation into alleged civilian killings in Ethiopia's Amhara region
The U.S. is calling for an investigation into an alleged massacre of civilians in Ethiopia’s Amhara region, where a local rights group says more than 80 people were killed last week following clashes between soldiers and armed groups.
apnews.com
Where is the MOU now? Nothing has been known even though over a month has passed. The rest of the world has already condemned it as well.
EritreanPost_
EritreanPost 🇪🇷🇩🇯🇸🇴🇸🇩🇪🇬 |Eritrean news blogger
They won’t. They are Muslim African and they were massacred by pro American regime (Ethiopia) the world turns a blind eye on this like they did during the genocidal invasion of Somalia/Ogaden by Ethiopia/TPLFI read this report the other day describing this massacre in Ethiopia. It’s from an Amhara website so there may be some bias but it was still and informative read. They claime that FANO attacked the government first then they retreated from the town. Once FANO retreated, the Ethiopian military entered the town and massacred at least 89 civilians. This happened on 1/29. There’s a full report at the bottom of the page. AUN to the civilians who died
Major US news agency are reporting on this massacre now. Maybe this could be the turning event that damages Ethiopia’s goodwill with the west. They already are on thin ice from the Tigray warPreliminary Report on the Merawi Massacre
Updated February 5, 2024The Amhara Association of America (AAA) has verified that on January 29, 2024, Abiy regime forces massacred at least 89 unarmed civilians in Merawi town (Amhara Region, Ethiopia). On that day, heavy gunfire exchange took place in Merawi town and surrounding villages...
I just wish Somali massacres in Tuli Gulled and West Sitti also received the same coverageUS calls for investigation into alleged civilian killings in Ethiopia's Amhara region
The U.S. is calling for an investigation into an alleged massacre of civilians in Ethiopia’s Amhara region, where a local rights group says more than 80 people were killed last week following clashes between soldiers and armed groups.
HoodHawiye
polygamist
many details of deals are kept secret in these state to state treaties. only loud mouthed fools such as yourself would not know this.
Or more likely Abiy realised his mistake and is trying to damage control behind closed doors. Whatever the case the longer this drags out the less likely it will be successful.
You’re very naive if you believe this “deal” will go ahead.
𐒋𐒖𐒆𐒔𐒖𐒕𐒈
VIP
Ethiopia on the edge — can Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed pull back from the abyss?
On 1 January 2024, Ahmed declared that he had reached an agreement with the leader of Somalia’s secessionist province, Somaliland. Although the memorandum of agreement remains secret, it is reported that Ethiopia would get 32km of northern Somali coast where it can develop its own port facilities as well as a naval base. In exchange, Somaliland will get unspecified Ethiopian Airlines stock and a cheap electric supply from the Ethiopian grid.
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The memorandum and Ahmed’s attempt to whitewash it have resurrected old colonial memories among Somalis. Even the substantial Somali populations who are Kenyan and Ethiopian citizens have rejected the prime minister’s territorial design.
Without wise leadership the people shall perish
Self-indulgent dreams of many African leaders have led to national catastrophes that endured for decades. The political record of the Ethiopian prime minister since 2018 shows a trajectory that mimics past destructive Ethiopian policies and practices.
www.dailymaverick.co.za
On 1 January 2024, Ahmed declared that he had reached an agreement with the leader of Somalia’s secessionist province, Somaliland. Although the memorandum of agreement remains secret, it is reported that Ethiopia would get 32km of northern Somali coast where it can develop its own port facilities as well as a naval base. In exchange, Somaliland will get unspecified Ethiopian Airlines stock and a cheap electric supply from the Ethiopian grid.
...
The memorandum and Ahmed’s attempt to whitewash it have resurrected old colonial memories among Somalis. Even the substantial Somali populations who are Kenyan and Ethiopian citizens have rejected the prime minister’s territorial design.
Without wise leadership the people shall perish
Self-indulgent dreams of many African leaders have led to national catastrophes that endured for decades. The political record of the Ethiopian prime minister since 2018 shows a trajectory that mimics past destructive Ethiopian policies and practices.
- First, the illegitimate monopolisation of political power renders the promise of democracy moot. Such a political order invariably leads to violent conflict.
- Second, the use of military power to solve political problems in a country where political trust is non-existent has never produced peace, has historically impoverished the population and led to horrific famines.
- Third, the maintenance and reproduction of political tribalism prevents the birth of civic political identity, and that deepens the endemic trust deficit.
- Finally, imperial territorial ambitions have been the source of deep hostility and mistrust with Ethiopia’s neighbours. The most recent case with Somalia will certainly derail the prospect of progressive and peaceful regional integration.
Ethiopia on the edge: Can Abiy Ahmed pull back from the abyss?
Abiy Ahmed’s plans for and rhetoric around a harbour and naval base on the coast of secessionist Somaliland has inflamed sentiments such that even the terrorist group al-Shabaab has declared its intention to become active in Ethiopia.
𐒋𐒖𐒆𐒔𐒖𐒕𐒈
VIP
Frequent assaults directed at critical infrastructure and personnel have become commonplace, resulting in significant loss of life, destruction of property, and severe economic repercussions.
Over recent years, reports detailing the detention of drivers for ransom, imposition of exorbitant fines, incidents of physical violence, and even homicides have proliferated, depicting a bleak landscape for a pivotal industry besieged by adversity.
During the previous twenty-four months, there has been a pronounced and hazardous escalation, particularly evident in the regions of Oromia, Amhara, and Afar. These areas have experienced a regrettable loss of lives and extensive property damage due to deliberate and targeted attacks.
Moreover, the economic repercussions reach beyond individual tragedies, as they disrupt supply chains and initiate a chain reaction that ultimately leads to increased costs of goods for consumers nationwide.
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Drivers have also alleged that armed groups have been requesting bribes of up to 1,000 birr per vehicle at government controlled checkpoints. They have reported instances where vehicles are halted, and the owners are subsequently contacted and coerced into paying up to 300,000 birr.
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“A month ago, 15 drivers were abducted between Wolenchiti and Metehara. We pooled resources and I engaged in negotiations with the militants via telephone. They released some drivers who met their demands, but unfortunately, those unable to comply were killed,” recalled Addis.
"Apart from militants, government security forces have also been involved in attacking and extorting drivers.”
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Violence threatens economic stability
Stakeholders emphasize that the increasing assaults on drivers and vehicles pose a significant threat to Ethiopia’s economy, which heavily depends on heavy cargo vehicles transporting essential goods from Djibouti.
Threats on wheels: Ethiopia's transportation sector faces escalating attacks by armed groups, gov't forces - Addis Standard
Threats on wheels: Ethiopia's transportation sector faces escalating attacks by armed groups, gov't forces Addis Standard -
addisstandard.com
𐒋𐒖𐒆𐒔𐒖𐒕𐒈
VIP
In-depth Analysis – Amhara region crisis: The weight of a crumbling core
This rising sentiment has also ignited a tide of a new form of Amhara nationalism in the expression of the desire for secession among many political activists, unheard in the history of Ethiopia.
addisstandard.com
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DRIVERS OF CONFLICT IN THE AMHARA REGION
The conflicts in the Amhara region can be categorized into inter- and intra-regional conflicts. Their drivers vary and can be multi-layered and interlinked: inter-Amhara conflicts, for example, are linked to intra-regional conflicts or their drivers.
Competing Identity-Based Movements
The Amhara region, like other regions in Ethiopia, has experienced conflicts driven by competing identity-based movements. Ethnic and religious aspirations have played a significant role in driving tensions and conflicts, as different groups such as the Agew, Qimant, and Oromo living in Oromo Special Zone of the Amhara region seek recognition, representation, and autonomy. Moreover, the lack of representation and massacres that the Amharas living outside the Amhara region have often faced has also contributed to political resentment across the region.
Territorial Disputes
At times related to contentious identity-based movements, but a key driver in its own right, is territorial disputes. Land and resource ownership and allocation have been contentious issues in the Amhara region. Disputes over territories and boundaries have sparked conflicts, with various groups vying for control and asserting their claims. The question of territory also applies to the Wolqayt-T(s)egede conflict where Amhara and Tigray identities are at loggerheads. Similarily, the Ethio-Sudan border skirmishes are another instance of territory-driven conflict
Political Power Realignment
Competing national and ethnic aspirations often interact with continuities and change in the Ethiopian state, where ethnic groups are demanding more representation centrally at the same time as seeking autonomy within their region. For example, Amhara nationalists believe they are being sidelined from central power and also feel their autonomy within the region is being eroded. They believe the PP is dominated by Oromo political elites who want to impose their will, including in the Amhara region. Marginalization of Amhara representatives from peace processes, such as with the TPLF and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), has created grievances and tensions. A related factor is the quest for a new political settlement in, and redefinition of, the Ethiopian state. The remaking of Ethiopia’s social contract is portrayed as reducing the north’s cultural and political dominance and giving the so-called ‘Greater South’ more representation. Lastly, power struggles at the regional level are another factor driving conflicts on the ground. Fragmentation among fighting parties is linked to the power struggle between the different provincialized identities within the Amhara region.
This rising sentiment has also ignited a tide of a new form of Amhara nationalism in the expression of the desire for secession among many political activists, unheard in the history of Ethiopia.
Amhara region crisis: The weight of a crumbling core - Addis Standard
Amhara region crisis: The weight of a crumbling core Addis Standard -
addisstandard.com
------------------------------------------
DRIVERS OF CONFLICT IN THE AMHARA REGION
The conflicts in the Amhara region can be categorized into inter- and intra-regional conflicts. Their drivers vary and can be multi-layered and interlinked: inter-Amhara conflicts, for example, are linked to intra-regional conflicts or their drivers.
Competing Identity-Based Movements
The Amhara region, like other regions in Ethiopia, has experienced conflicts driven by competing identity-based movements. Ethnic and religious aspirations have played a significant role in driving tensions and conflicts, as different groups such as the Agew, Qimant, and Oromo living in Oromo Special Zone of the Amhara region seek recognition, representation, and autonomy. Moreover, the lack of representation and massacres that the Amharas living outside the Amhara region have often faced has also contributed to political resentment across the region.
Territorial Disputes
At times related to contentious identity-based movements, but a key driver in its own right, is territorial disputes. Land and resource ownership and allocation have been contentious issues in the Amhara region. Disputes over territories and boundaries have sparked conflicts, with various groups vying for control and asserting their claims. The question of territory also applies to the Wolqayt-T(s)egede conflict where Amhara and Tigray identities are at loggerheads. Similarily, the Ethio-Sudan border skirmishes are another instance of territory-driven conflict
Political Power Realignment
Competing national and ethnic aspirations often interact with continuities and change in the Ethiopian state, where ethnic groups are demanding more representation centrally at the same time as seeking autonomy within their region. For example, Amhara nationalists believe they are being sidelined from central power and also feel their autonomy within the region is being eroded. They believe the PP is dominated by Oromo political elites who want to impose their will, including in the Amhara region. Marginalization of Amhara representatives from peace processes, such as with the TPLF and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), has created grievances and tensions. A related factor is the quest for a new political settlement in, and redefinition of, the Ethiopian state. The remaking of Ethiopia’s social contract is portrayed as reducing the north’s cultural and political dominance and giving the so-called ‘Greater South’ more representation. Lastly, power struggles at the regional level are another factor driving conflicts on the ground. Fragmentation among fighting parties is linked to the power struggle between the different provincialized identities within the Amhara region.
Amhara seccessionism was inevitable.In-depth Analysis – Amhara region crisis: The weight of a crumbling core
This rising sentiment has also ignited a tide of a new form of Amhara nationalism in the expression of the desire for secession among many political activists, unheard in the history of Ethiopia.
Amhara region crisis: The weight of a crumbling core - Addis Standard
Amhara region crisis: The weight of a crumbling core Addis Standard -
------------------------------------------
DRIVERS OF CONFLICT IN THE AMHARA REGION
The conflicts in the Amhara region can be categorized into inter- and intra-regional conflicts. Their drivers vary and can be multi-layered and interlinked: inter-Amhara conflicts, for example, are linked to intra-regional conflicts or their drivers.
Competing Identity-Based Movements
The Amhara region, like other regions in Ethiopia, has experienced conflicts driven by competing identity-based movements. Ethnic and religious aspirations have played a significant role in driving tensions and conflicts, as different groups such as the Agew, Qimant, and Oromo living in Oromo Special Zone of the Amhara region seek recognition, representation, and autonomy. Moreover, the lack of representation and massacres that the Amharas living outside the Amhara region have often faced has also contributed to political resentment across the region.
Territorial Disputes
At times related to contentious identity-based movements, but a key driver in its own right, is territorial disputes. Land and resource ownership and allocation have been contentious issues in the Amhara region. Disputes over territories and boundaries have sparked conflicts, with various groups vying for control and asserting their claims. The question of territory also applies to the Wolqayt-T(s)egede conflict where Amhara and Tigray identities are at loggerheads. Similarily, the Ethio-Sudan border skirmishes are another instance of territory-driven conflict
Political Power Realignment
Competing national and ethnic aspirations often interact with continuities and change in the Ethiopian state, where ethnic groups are demanding more representation centrally at the same time as seeking autonomy within their region. For example, Amhara nationalists believe they are being sidelined from central power and also feel their autonomy within the region is being eroded. They believe the PP is dominated by Oromo political elites who want to impose their will, including in the Amhara region. Marginalization of Amhara representatives from peace processes, such as with the TPLF and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), has created grievances and tensions. A related factor is the quest for a new political settlement in, and redefinition of, the Ethiopian state. The remaking of Ethiopia’s social contract is portrayed as reducing the north’s cultural and political dominance and giving the so-called ‘Greater South’ more representation. Lastly, power struggles at the regional level are another factor driving conflicts on the ground. Fragmentation among fighting parties is linked to the power struggle between the different provincialized identities within the Amhara region.
seldiboy
Resident Eritrean | Ye's strongest soldier
Amhara can never secede because at the end of the day, Amhara = Ethiopia
With Amhara it will always be a power struggle in the hopes of an Amhara dominated Ethiopia
reer
VIP
amhara put themselves in a loop. they want ethiopia = amhara but at the same time dominate other ethnicities which are making them a minority.
Due to insufficient numbers, they are realizing they cannot dominate other ethnic groups. Forming a new country is their only option, but the location is not ideal.
Their era is over unless something big happens....
Like Austrians in Austria Hungary or Serbians in Yugoslavia they will realize going alone is their best option
Someone else will take the throne -> short period of peace and stability -> total chaos -> someone lese will take the throne
I don´t know how they do it but they always get their shit back together just to go back to the shit.
We are still in chaos but I know damn well if we get a glimpse of peace and stability its over for everyone.
I don´t know how they do it but they always get their shit back together just to go back to the shit.
We are still in chaos but I know damn well if we get a glimpse of peace and stability its over for everyone.
