Explaining how AMISOM came to Somalia and who stands to benefit when they leave.

[Hafiiid]

On October 2004 Abdullahi yuusuf wins the presidency and than names his PM an Abgaal named Cali Geedi, they make many makeshift capitals in Baidoa, but when Abdulahi yuusuf's brother was killed he moved to jowhar to be protected by the Abgaals.

Abdullah yuusuf and Cali Geedi decided to call in 50,000 Ethiopia army to battle the HGs "Moryaan" from the capital, which they initially succeeded making HGs flee from Mogadishu they had under control moving into Ceelasha Biyaha making there their new settlement, and also HG to combat Ethiopia created Alshabaab founded by Cayrow (Aun) and the Islamists godfather Dahir aweys.

So after a while, Abdulahi yuusuf and Ethiopia led by Gabre have a feud, where Abdullah yuusuf expels Ethiopia army , and calls for AU to bring Mixed African troops to protect him and replace Ethiopia, which they did and so was AMISOM created.

So you see, AMISOM came to Somalia was a venture that was initially started by Ethiopia and Abdulahi yuusuf to combat HGs.

So tell me what will happen if AMISOM leaves for good?

Chaotic Somalia Picks a President; 14th Effort to End Lawlessness (Published 2004)

Abdullahi Yusuf, Ethiopian-backed warlord, is elected president of Somalia by lawmakers in 14th attempt in decade to restore government to lawless country; Yusuf will head transitional federal government that will try to move Somalia toward elections under new constitution in five years; rival...

www.nytimes.com

Somalia: Ethiopia to participate in peacekeeping force, says minister - Somalia

News and Press Release in English on Somalia; published on 18 Feb 2005 by TNH

reliefweb.int

Ethiopian troops in Somalia ambush

A leader of the Union of Islamic Courts takes credit for the Mogadishu attack.

www.google.com

.

I will let our professor Ustaad @The Midlands give us more info on this matter.

 

[Hafiiid]

HGs were finessing Southern Somalis selling them river waters before AMISOM came and ruined our game, a game we had on a lockdown.

 

[convincation]

Cali geedi was a shameless horgaal. Not even his own subclan would say otherwise

 

[Abdisamad]

HGs were finessing Southern Somalis selling them river waters before AMISOM came and ruined our game, a game we had on a lockdown.



View attachment 295794

The picture

 

[Hafiiid]

Cali geedi was a shameless horgaal. Not even his own subclan would say otherwise

AUN PM Nuur Cadde was a gem, one in a million.

 

[TekNiKo]

Biggest winners : MX, Gaaljecel, Awrmale, Jaraarweyn, Xawaadle and Murusade

Biggest losers (AMISOM ku nool): Abgaal, HG, Raxanweyn and Ogaden

 

[Padrino]

The brutal warlords of Mogadishu were already removed by the Islamic Courts Union. Ethiopia attacked Somalia only after the Islamic Courts Union captured all of Mogadishu and spread to other cities in the country with everyone in Southern Somalia supporting them. In fact, the Hawiye warlords of Mogadishu were on Cabdullahi Yusuf and Geedi's side and were fighting the Islamic Courts Union with money and weapons from the CIA. This was before the Ethiopians joined the war. Those incidents had nothing to do with clan.

 

[The Midlands]

TFG/Abdullahi Yusuf was based in Nairobi then he moved to Jowhar before Baidoa.

Parliament moved to Baidoa and the Govt to Jowhar then Yeey relocated to Baidoa

As him and the Ministers, Mps were living in the expensive Gigiri Neighbourhood of Nairobi next to the UN agencies the UPD who was paying for their hotels and salary told them to move to inside Somalia. Kenya Suggested to Yeey to start from Balad-hawo or Afmadow then Kismaayo and spread the Govt to the rest of Somalia from there but he refused to listen to her this is one of the mistakes Daarood leaders made Mogadishu iyo Dhul hawiye maxay ka faaideen

Somalia: Government unwelcome in Jowhar, faction leader says - Somalia

News and Press Release in English on Somalia; published on 15 Jun 2005 by TNH

reliefweb.int

Like i said before after AMISOM leaves Mogadishu will go back to before 2007 no Govt will be able to work in Villa Somalia without HG.

 

[Hafiiid]

The brutal warlords of Mogadishu were already removed from the Islamic Courts Union. Ethiopia attacked Somalia only after the Islamic Courts Union captured all of Mogadishu and spread to other cities in the country with every in Southern Somalia supporting them. In fact, the Hawiye warlords of Mogadishu were on Cabdullahi Yusuf and Geedi's side and were fighting the Islamic Courts Union with money and weapons from the CIA. This was before the Ethiopians joined the war. Those incidents had nothing to do with clan.

The brutal clan mentioned is Cayr, the Islamists were all Cayr, and it was them that later on created Alshabaab movement to combat the Ethiopian invaders brought by Abdullahi yuusuf.

Response: Somalia asked us to save them from this brutal sub-clan

Response: Hardline ideologists were introducing a tyrannical regime. Ethiopia had to act, says Berhanu Kebede.

www.theguardian.com

even Kaptan ayuub who was soldier of Abdullahi yuusuf goes through this

 

[Cartan Boos]

The brutal clan mentioned is Cayr, the Islamists were all Cayr, and it was them that later on created Alshabaab movement to combat the Ethiopian invaders brought by Abdullahi yuusuf.

Response: Somalia asked us to save them from this brutal sub-clan

Response: Hardline ideologists were introducing a tyrannical regime. Ethiopia had to act, says Berhanu Kebede.

www.theguardian.com

even Kaptan ayuub who was soldier of Abdullahi yuusuf goes through this

Not true Mukhtar Roobow, an early Shabab memeber, admits that this isn't the case By June 2006, "Al Shabab was the most organised faction within the ICU," he says Godane, a then member of Shabab, held a leadership post within the ICU along with at least 2 other Shabab memebers

Al Shabab was an armed Wing of the ICU by the time they took Mogadishu and became Ifka Xalane Court The founder of Al Shabab Adan Xaashi Ceyrow and his mentor Dahir Aweys were mentioned in this August 2006 article Intelligence also shows Shabab in existence as a network by 2005

Even Indhacadde admits that the Shabab network was so powerful in 2006 that they contested Sharif being named head of the ICU He says the military/police was controlled by Shabab, who attempted to coup Sharif before the plot was discovered They wanted Godane to take over


source

https://x.com/Kooshinnnn/status/1706522835496194309?s=20

 

[The Midlands]

The brutal clan mentioned is Cayr, the Islamists were all Cayr, and it was them that later on created Alshabaab movement to combat the Ethiopian invaders brought by Abdullahi yuusuf.

Response: Somalia asked us to save them from this brutal sub-clan

Response: Hardline ideologists were introducing a tyrannical regime. Ethiopia had to act, says Berhanu Kebede.

www.theguardian.com

even Kaptan ayuub who was soldier of Abdullahi yuusuf goes through this

he was wounded in Xamar at that time after which they took him to Germany for treatment where he asked fo asylum. He still lives in Germany.

 

[Cartan Boos]

this wasn't about qabil as hawiye big warlords wanted abdullahi yusuf in mogadishu and welcomed ethiopia to do so
indhacadde said
"We wanted Abdullahi Yusuf to be our president and for him to recognize us but Shabab didn't want that and sabotaged this"

source https://x.com/Kooshinnnn/status/1706528485341040707?s=20

also ethiopia invasion to mogadishu was supported by sheikh shariif and caydiid as sheikh shariif brought ethiopia to fight al kabab in 2009

https://x.com/Kooshinnnn/status/1704972296320938253?s=20

 

[𐒁𐒚𐒒𐒂𐒘𐒂𐒗 𐒎𐒚𐒗𐒗𐒒]

this wasn't about qabil as hawiye big warlords wanted abdullahi yusuf in mogadishu and welcomed ethiopia to do so
indhacadde said
"We wanted Abdullahi Yusuf to be our president and for him to recognize us but Shabab didn't want that and sabotaged this"

source https://x.com/Kooshinnnn/status/1706528485341040707?s=20

also ethiopia invasion to mogadishu was supported by sheikh shariif and caydiid as sheikh shariif brought ethiopia to fight al kabab in 2009

https://x.com/Kooshinnnn/status/1704972296320938253?s=20

Hutus like to rewrite history, as if all of their warlord uncles aka their heroes, didn't support Ethiopian troops. They'll do anything to distance themselves from everything they've done and till this day, they still wonder why Alshabab has enslaved them.

They don't understand 'accountability' and 'truth', that's why they'll never be free.

 

[Abaq]

Habar gidir are a curse and a plague. When Amisom leaves and the Madhalays Republic falls, we will build a wall to keep the wuxuush out

 

[Burqad]

ICU and AS were inevitable, HW and southerners always had weaker clan elders than other Somalis due to the Italian colonization and America killing their clan elders in the 90’s.

 

[Fisherman 75]

ICU and AS were inevitable, HW and southerners always had weaker clan elders than other Somalis due to the Italian colonization and America killing their clan elders in the 90’s.

In what way did this weaken the role of clan elders?

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[Hassan Garguute Buldanana]

Let the fufu go and also the IC needs to cut off the zoo. Let's see who survives.

 

[Burqad]

In what way did this weaken the role of clan elders?

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The Italians destroyed the role clan leaders had. The Hawiye were left with no traditional elite to protect the minority ethnic groups. The Abgaal Imaam cannot speak to the mooryaan and ask them to spare the Reer Xamar, he has no legitimacy.

This is also why it is impossible to reach a peace deal with Hawiye. Conflict won’t end because war & peace are outside of the control of the clan leaders.

This void in Hawiye political culture can only be filled by the religious elite, which leads us to UIC and Alshabab. The destruction of the traditional Hawiye political elite by colonialism is something Somalia will continue to deal with for decades to come.

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

In what way did this weaken the role of clan elders?

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A good introduction into how Italians deliberately weakened traditional leaders in the south.
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/21520844.2021.1915649

The Italians permanently damaged the system in the south, leaving only the wadaads to bring about peace in Mogadishu by 2006 after 15 years of chaos.

 

[Fisherman 75]

A good introduction into how Italians deliberately weakened traditional leaders in the south.
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/21520844.2021.1915649

The Italians permanently damaged the system in the south, leaving only the wadaads to bring about peace in Mogadishu by 2006 after 15 years of chaos.

As much as it hurts to admit, there might be some truth to this. Always wondered where was the elders during the 4 month war when thousands died. Not to mention the 15 year stalemate and living in a state of limbo. Only time the capital saw complete peace was ICU six months of rule and post 2011 shared Mogadishu brought the stability we see now as one clan was unable to completely defeat the other.

However, surely the same applies for Kismaayo/JL and the southern Daroods? Those regions were not exactly peaceful during the civil war and clan hostility was brought to an end with Ras kambooni, an islamist movement, not clan elders. The only thing keeping the OG and MX not fighting each other today is AMISOM and Al Shabaab controlling the entire Middle Jubba region.

I think this effects the south as a whole rather than specific clans. Also the south having dozens of clans all trying to dominate or defend their territory from more powerful clans has a part to play unlike SL and PL where there is one dominant clan that can regulate peace and order.