1977 war could have been won had Barre done this

[SamaaleCushite]

This CIA report shows why the invasion failed in 1977 and the aftermath.

Stil despite the number disadvantage below, they still pushed to harar and could only be pushed back due to logistical, manpower and lack of support from allies. Lessons for future somali states : Allies dont matter , industry and logisitcs does!! Have spy cells across ethiopia and ensure you have adequate knowledge of ENDF. Doesnt matter the habsha and other foot soldier numbers we can beat them as long as we folow these rules and more importantly go through djibouti corridor and rush dire dawa before taking flat desert in south.

Remember ethiopia had 100s of thousands of militias that were not regular soldiers. So real number is up to 3-500k.

Go through report here ill post review of it tomorow.

https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP84S00552R000300100003-4.pdf

What shoudl have happened and can happen again preferably:

3 - diversionary attacks and deep entrenchments to lure in and pin many ethiopian columns, 3 is alos important farmland and industries so they should be priority and a good bait for ethiopia

2 , 1 -where u launch raids and asaults, these 2 fronts are used to try and divert as much as possible from the important djibouti and lowcaday corridor assault.

4 - mass asault on harar they will rush many men into this but have little to spare for the djibouti border.

5 - Sun tzu "all warfare is deception" this is your main army atleast 10 division strong rushing to diri dhabothen going to garrsion the surrounding highlands and assault harar from the south while the rest rally maleeshiyaad across galbeed to rise up armies 1 2 3 shoudl regroup and begin to assault the ethiopians. The ethiopian army will crumble and rush back across bale and moyale to regroup.


Mine the border , hold referendum, conscript every able bodied male and dig in.

---

 

[mohammdov]

I don't know how they thought of attacking a country with a population of 33 million at that time, while Somalia had a population of 5 million.

 

[Abbondanzieri1]

This CIA report shows why the invasion failed in 1977 and the aftermath.

Stil despite the number disadvantage below, they still pushed to harar and could only be pushed back due to logistical, manpower and lack of support from allies. Lessons for future somali states : Allies dont matter , industry and logisitcs does!! Have spy cells across ethiopia and ensure you have adequate knowledge of ENDF. Doesnt matter the habsha and other foot soldier numbers we can beat them as long as we folow these rules and more importantly go through djibouti corridor and rush dire dawa before taking flat desert in south.

View attachment 293056

Remember ethiopia had 100s of thousands of militias that were not regular soldiers. So real number is up to 3-500k.

Go through report here ill post review of it tomorow.

https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP84S00552R000300100003-4.pdf

What shoudl have happened and can happen again preferably:

View attachment 293057

3 - diversionary attacks and deep entrenchments to lure in and pin many ethiopian columns, 3 is alos important farmland and industries so they should be priority and a good bait for ethiopia

2 , 1 -where u launch raids and asaults, these 2 fronts are used to try and divert as much as possible from the important djibouti and lowcaday corridor assault.

4 - mass asault on harar they will rush many men into this but have little to spare for the djibouti border.

5 - Sun tzu "all warfare is deception" this is your main army atleast 10 division strong rushing to diri dhabothen going to garrsion the surrounding highlands and assault harar from the south while the rest rally maleeshiyaad across galbeed to rise up armies 1 2 3 shoudl regroup and begin to assault the ethiopians. The ethiopian army will crumble and rush back across bale and moyale to regroup.


Mine the border , hold referendum, conscript every able bodied male and dig in.

---

look at the number difference and Somalia still basically had a stalemate in this war with Ethiopia fckin needed Soviet union to back them

 

[Odious Delirium]

look at the number difference and Somalia still basically had a stalemate in this war with Ethiopia fckin needed Soviet union to back them

We have to keep in mind they where in the middle of there own crisis with the derg takeover.

 

[Mr steal your naag 2]

This CIA report shows why the invasion failed in 1977 and the aftermath.

Stil despite the number disadvantage below, they still pushed to harar and could only be pushed back due to logistical, manpower and lack of support from allies. Lessons for future somali states : Allies dont matter , industry and logisitcs does!! Have spy cells across ethiopia and ensure you have adequate knowledge of ENDF. Doesnt matter the habsha and other foot soldier numbers we can beat them as long as we folow these rules and more importantly go through djibouti corridor and rush dire dawa before taking flat desert in south.

View attachment 293056

Remember ethiopia had 100s of thousands of militias that were not regular soldiers. So real number is up to 3-500k.

Go through report here ill post review of it tomorow.

https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP84S00552R000300100003-4.pdf

What shoudl have happened and can happen again preferably:

View attachment 293057

3 - diversionary attacks and deep entrenchments to lure in and pin many ethiopian columns, 3 is alos important farmland and industries so they should be priority and a good bait for ethiopia

2 , 1 -where u launch raids and asaults, these 2 fronts are used to try and divert as much as possible from the important djibouti and lowcaday corridor assault.

4 - mass asault on harar they will rush many men into this but have little to spare for the djibouti border.

5 - Sun tzu "all warfare is deception" this is your main army atleast 10 division strong rushing to diri dhabothen going to garrsion the surrounding highlands and assault harar from the south while the rest rally maleeshiyaad across galbeed to rise up armies 1 2 3 shoudl regroup and begin to assault the ethiopians. The ethiopian army will crumble and rush back across bale and moyale to regroup.


Mine the border , hold referendum, conscript every able bodied male and dig in.

---

The difference is crazy and i thought somalia had 1 helicopter

 

[Madaafiic]

A little patience would have gone a long way however there were various external & internal circumstances which may have pressured us to attack when we did. The USSR clearly didn't trust the Somali administration from the very beginning. I personally believe that the biggest issue we had was lack of a guaranteed support from the United States and their allies, if we secured that and the war continued<<even if it became a stalemate>> we would have been able to maintain all the land that was liberated. It may have even forced the USSR and derg to come down to the negotiating table as the USSR itself was heading towards a war with Afghanistan as well in the very near future. It would not have been practical for them to continue supporting the extremely unpopular derg regime... As for support for us from the West, if Nixon or Regan were president during that period, we all may not be here today and Somalia would've been very stable, but alas we unfortunately had to deal with the likes of Jimmy Carter.

 

[Three Moons]

I don't know how they thought of attacking a country with a population of 33 million at that time, while Somalia had a population of 5 million.

Somalia was more advanced military equipment wise and had better trained soldiers with greater motivation. This is why the whole Ethiopian army melted away according to a Soviet general and why Mengistu was forced to depend on Soviets and Cubans to reverse the Somali Blitzkrieg.

Population size is meaningless. Sweden would annihilate Bangladesh in a war. Truth is, Somalia should not have allowed itself to be baited into attacking Ethiopia (a crisis intentionally designed decades earlier) until it had its own arms industry and developed the biggest economy in the region by having various Somali oil fields flowing to the Western world and Eastern world.

It had Brazilians, Americans, Chinese all knocking on its doors ready for big investments in the energy industry. That should have been our focus, then and only then could we flex our military muscle without getting ragdolled by a superpower (seriously what was Siad Barre smoking when he kicked the Soviets out like that and humiliated them on the international stage just a few years after their forced ejection from Egypt?).

If it reached a high economic status, the best modus operandi would have been to fund multiple groups inside Ethiopia with greater intensity and impact, and eventually create a Yugoslavia scenario without sacrificing a single Somali soldier.

 

[Three Moons]

A little patience would have gone a long way however there were various external & internal circumstances which may have pressured us to attack when we did. The USSR clearly didn't trust the Somali administration from the very beginning. I personally believe that the biggest issue we had was lack of a guaranteed support from the United States and their allies, if we secured that and the war continued<<even if it became a stalemate>> we would have been able to maintain all the land that was liberated. It may have even forced the USSR and derg to come down to the negotiating table as the USSR itself was heading towards a war with Afghanistan as well in the very near future. It would not have been practical for them to continue supporting the extremely unpopular derg regime... As for support for us from the West, if Nixon or Regan were president during that period, we all may not be here today and Somalia would've been very stable, but alas we unfortunately had to deal with the likes of Jimmy Carter.

Iran and Saudi Arabia tried to sent tanks and armoured vehicles but were blocked by the Americans. They kind of tricked Siad by pretending that they would support him but only if he first kicked out the Soviets. At the time the latter were still playing both sides and had no intention of dropping Somalia in favour of Ethiopia, because of the Berbera base, so the Ogaden would have remained in Somali hands for years to come no question about it. Once he did kick them out, they felt so humiliated that they launched a huge airlift that surprised everyone, not least of all Siad himself.

 

[Abbondanzieri1]

We have to keep in mind they where in the middle of there own crisis with the derg takeover.

no excuses bro just look at the active personnel number in the Ethiopian military this doesn't even include the Cubans and Soviets etc, and they STILL stalemated with a lone Somalia

 

[Three Moons]

Somebody once said Ethiopia has plot amor like an anime character and I’m starting to believe it, because all these Deux Ex Machina interventions saving them from the brink of permanently entering the history pages like Byzantium, Makuria, Yugoslavia etc are just ridiculous.

The Zionists have a lesser claim than them on being the ‘Chosen People’ . They are fully cashing in on the Two Migrations.

 

[Guillotine]

We should've stopped at Dire Dawa, we got to too gluttonous and unequipped for highlands.

 

[Hilmaam]

Ethiopia is vast land with vast people somalia is way more likely to be a invaded and taken over in future. We had small window in 1970/80 while they were weak and going through civil war but Soviet shut in it in our face.

somalia barely grows any food, we are not united, barely any electricity or industry to maintain a war. No governance for land we have today, we would just export misery to Somalis in Kenya and Ethiopia.

 

[SamaaleCushite]

Ethiopia is vast land with vast people somalia is way more likely to be a invaded and taken over in future. We had small window in 1970/80 while they were weak and going through civil war but Soviet shut in it in our face.

somalia barely grows any food, we are not united, barely any electricity or industry to maintain a war. No governance for land we have today, we would just export misery to Somalis in Kenya and Ethiopia.

I agree i believe it will be up to somalis in galbeed to choose either freedom or death if they truly seek it. We gotta build somalia and her people before we can think of somaliwyen.

 

[Mr steal your naag 2]

I agree i believe it will be up to somalis in galbeed to choose either freedom or death if they truly seek it. We gotta build somalia and her people before we can think of somaliwyen.

You have to look it from their eyes. Why would a kenyan somali from nfd join somalia while living a decent life under kenyan administration?

 

[SamaaleCushite]

You have to look it from their eyes. Why would a kenyan somali from nfd join somalia while living a decent life under kenyan administration?

Do not under estimate somalis sxb we are utterly indha adeeg to a fault. This power of stubborness that is prevalent among all somalis can be exploited by one clan or one region for example (Jubaland) having good governance, patriotic leadership and raising funds to build small scale industries and business centers that will grow exponentially. It will be emulated by other somalis and in a few decades they will see the prosperity and beg to join. (This needs clan peace across somalia tho)

Galbeed however we will free , In our very flag somaliweyn is included and its also in our constitution so we cant let go of it

 

[Mr steal your naag 2]

Do not under estimate somalis sxb we are utterly indha adeeg to a fault. This power of stubborness that is prevalent among all somalis can be exploited by one clan or one region for example (Jubaland) having good governance, patriotic leadership and raising funds to build small scale industries and business centers that will grow exponentially. It will be emulated by other somalis and in a few decades they will see the prosperity and beg to join. (This needs clan peace across somalia tho)

Galbeed however we will free , In our very flag somaliweyn is included and its also in our constitution so we cant let go of it

That all sounds nice but you have to look it from the individuel somali view. if i was from nfd i can go to schools in nairobi and i can chill in mombasa and have a better future. Now why would i give that up? So i can have a clan conflict in the future. its way easier to live next to a bantu then a fellow somali

 

[mohammdov]

Somalia was more advanced military equipment wise and had better trained soldiers with greater motivation. This is why the whole Ethiopian army melted away according to a Soviet general and why Mengistu was forced to depend on Soviets and Cubans to reverse the Somali Blitzkrieg.

Population size is meaningless. Sweden would annihilate Bangladesh in a war. Truth is, Somalia should not have allowed itself to be baited into attacking Ethiopia (a crisis intentionally designed decades earlier) until it had its own arms industry and developed the biggest economy in the region by having various Somali oil fields flowing to the Western world and Eastern world.

It had Brazilians, Americans, Chinese all knocking on its doors ready for big investments in the energy industry. That should have been our focus, then and only then could we flex our military muscle without getting ragdolled by a superpower (seriously what was Siad Barre smoking when he kicked the Soviets out like that and humiliated them on the international stage just a few years after their forced ejection from Egypt?).

If it reached a high economic status, the best modus operandi would have been to fund multiple groups inside Ethiopia with greater intensity and impact, and eventually create a Yugoslavia scenario without sacrificing a single Somali soldier.

I do not agree with you. The Somali and Ethiopian army were at the same level and had the same weapons, but the Somali army was better in planning and management, and this is what the Ethiopians did not know. Ethiopia was in a state of quasi-civil war and a coup occurred several years ago
Only if you had an army that you built like the German army in the Ww2 would you be able to prevail over large population numbers, but the Somali army was an army that the Soviets literally built it
That is why when the Soviets turned to the Ethiopian side, they were able to win quickly because they were the ones who trained these generals
Somalia had to build a strong army, ensure an alliance with one of the great powers, and wait for the right opportunity, such as the collapse of Ethiopia in 1991. If we had attacked at that time, the Ethiopians would not have cared because they were in a civil war And famine

 

[Diaspora ambassador]

Ethiopia is vast land with vast people somalia is way more likely to be a invaded and taken over in future. We had small window in 1970/80 while they were weak and going through civil war but Soviet shut in it in our face.

somalia barely grows any food, we are not united, barely any electricity or industry to maintain a war. No governance for land we have today, we would just export misery to Somalis in Kenya and Ethiopia.

Nah bro, in just one decade after unity we will have an army that can reconquer galbeed and take at the military installations of ethiopia.

Why else do you think they want us to balkanise?

A united somali attack is unstoppable in the horn.

 

[Three Moons]

I do not agree with you. The Somali and Ethiopian army were at the same level and had the same weapons, but the Somali army was better in planning and management, and this is what the Ethiopians did not know. Ethiopia was in a state of quasi-civil war and a coup occurred several years ago

They have been in a quasi-civil war for most of their existence, even today like us. Secondly their coup was a minor one, the Emperor and those loyal to him were quickly deposed and Derg inherited Ethiopia’s entire diplomatic and military machine, which for years was built with the assistance of the United States and Britain.

The Ethiopian military was bigger, had more funding, and as you can see from the opening post had more of almost anything compared to the Somali military, so outside of the armoured component, they were vastly superior to us, yet they were almost completely obliterated when Somalia invaded.

Only if you had an army that you built like the German army in the Ww2 would you be able to prevail over large population numbers, but the Somali army was an army that the Soviets literally built it

Even that wouldn’t be a guaranteed victory. Other components have to align perfectly to assure that. The diplomatic arena is sometimes more important than the battlefield, which Somalia discovered eventually.

That is why when the Soviets turned to the Ethiopian side, they were able to win quickly because they were the ones who trained these generals

No, there was no one to operate the tanks, armoured vehicles and artillery on the Ethiopian side, so the Soviets airlifted tens of thousands of Cubans and Soviets to operate them. These were fresh well-supplied troops fighting battle-worn Somali soldiers cut off from international arms factories and supplies.

If America hadn’t blocked the Iranians, Egyptians and Saudis from resupplying the Somali Army things would have been different.

Somalia had to build a strong army, ensure an alliance with one of the great powers, and wait for the right opportunity, such as the collapse of Ethiopia in 1991. If we had attacked at that time, the Ethiopians would not have cared because they were in a civil war And famine

Somalia actually did build a strong army and had a friendship treaty with a superpower, and saw a good opportunity to make a permanent move. Truth is, it did and would have succeeded in all of its objectives if the Soviets had been a real ally, and if Somalia had been more politically astute, which could have prevented it from making a big blunder like the forced ejection of the Soviets from Somalia.

After that, there was no longer a need for the Soviets to play both sides. Otherwise Somalia could have maintained its hold on the Ogaden until the Reagan administration came to power and only then could such major geopolitical switches by Somalia be justified.

 

[NidarNidar]

I don't know how they thought of attacking a country with a population of 33 million at that time, while Somalia had a population of 5 million.

This has been a common occurance, I was in Addis airport and was ordering food and got chatting to this woman in English that was seating next to me, she asked me if I was Ethiopian, I replied back I am from Somali, I could see the reaction on her face, the disgust, she excused herself and left, they still have deep hatred for us, this battles allowed the Oromo to expand and steal a lot of territory from them, we didn't lose as much as they had to forfeit.