Will the AU mission end soon, and what does this mean for Somalia

[mibs]

It seems donors aren't willing to give aussom the funding it needs. And even if a last minute deal is made, it will only last for a year before there is another funding crisis. So the AU mission looks like it will soon come to a close.

Will the possible end of the AU Mission in Somalia open new opportunities for peace? – Amani Africa

amaniafrica-et.org

What does this mean for Somalia's future?

 

[FBIsomalia]

It seems donors aren't willing to give aussom the funding it needs. And even if a last minute deal is made, it will only last for a year before there is another funding crisis. So the AU mission looks like it will soon come to a close.

Will the possible end of the AU Mission in Somalia open new opportunities for peace? – Amani Africa

amaniafrica-et.org

What does this mean for Somalia's future?

HAG should fight Alkabaab alone.

 

[Espaa_]

HAG should fight Alkabaab alone.

imma whip their asses dw im the main character

 

[therandomone]

If the government collapses it would be the best for somalia.

 

[Midas]

Wrre probably gonna see a lot more instability in the near term because of this. As somali elites jostle to be at the head of the new poltical order which is forming as a part of the fallout of the end of the au mission.

 

[Barkhadle1520]

It seems donors aren't willing to give aussom the funding it needs. And even if a last minute deal is made, it will only last for a year before there is another funding crisis. So the AU mission looks like it will soon come to a close.

Will the possible end of the AU Mission in Somalia open new opportunities for peace? – Amani Africa

amaniafrica-et.org

What does this mean for Somalia's future?

Honestly its over for somalia if they dont reform the army and government structure by the time AU leaves

 

[Medeea]

Wrre probably gonna see a lot more instability in the near term because of this. As somali elites jostle to be at the head of the new poltical order which is forming as a part of the fallout of the end of the au mission.

12k have already left in the last two years and I don’t see m widespread chaos or genocide happening. Even with 70% of international aid cut this year, we’re not seeing mass starvation.

Don’t get me, yes, I agree that short-term instability will rise, but it will be a much needed reset. For years, $1.5B in aid yearly and 30k western paid foreign troops made Somali(especially Xamar’s) elites very lazy. Now, with no money and no protection it’s sink or swim. Its time to either get to work
or risk being overrun by AS, Abiy, or end up a client state of the UAE.

 

[Zak12]

What many seem to be forgetting is that Somalia will still retain external support from the United States, Turkey and Qatar. Its only the useless AU troops that will have their funding cut.

In the short term there will be some instability as the SNA will be the focus of AS instead of AU but in the long term it will allow a shift in strategy against AS that will prove more effective than the failed strategy of keeping foreign troops in.

 

[Hilmaam]

they've been saying they will leave for years. there will be some last minute funds found like always. Plus there are troops outside AUSSOM. there is like 7-10k ethiopians inside country outside mission, who wont leave no matter what. Same thing with Kenya. Neither will leave and allow their borders to come at risk. long as all this infighting continues dont expect any big changes. almost whole south border ethiopia got buffer

 

[Midas]

12k have already left in the last two years and I don’t see m widespread chaos or genocide happening. Even with 70% of international aid cut this year, we’re not seeing mass starvation.

Don’t get me, yes, I agree that short-term instability will rise, but it will be a much needed reset. For years, $1.5B in aid yearly and 30k western paid foreign troops made Somali(especially Xamar’s) elites very lazy. Now, with no money and no protection it’s sink or swim. Its time to either get to work
or risk being overrun by AS, Abiy, or end up a client state of the UAE.

Dont get me wrong I think this is a osotive development. The status quo has made these people resistant to actually building an army effectively. But now there force to adapt or die

 

[Midas]

they've been saying they will leave for years. there will be some last minute funds found like always. Plus there are troops outside AUSSOM. there is like 7-10k ethiopians inside country outside mission, who wont leave no matter what. Same thing with Kenya. Neither will leave and allow their borders to come at risk. long as all this infighting continues dont expect any big changes. almost whole south border ethiopia got buffer

View attachment 368049

Why do you keep acting like nothing has actually changed? The United States completely pulled funding on hundreds of major projects it was involved in.

The presence of kenya and Ethiopian troops will also ultimately underg a reevaluation. Its one thing to have them there when there's an au mission even if they're not involved. But once the au mission is gone they're gonna generate a lot more scrutiny.

 

[El Nino]

The article was in May, now more then 2 months ago.

It seems to me status quo will just remain for couple of years. AS is content on taking areas previously under its control but not directly threatening Xamar. It seems like they are going to wait until western powers (USA) give up on state building of Somalia.

We have already read that many in Trumps administration want to ”contain Somalia and let it burn”. If we have read it, so have AS too.

The ball is in FGS court. I deleted tiktok but before that I listened to a clip by AAW who talked about the usual political topics but he did say the world is changing. Elites in FGS know westerners will pull the plug at one point and leave them in the dust.

Most of them will relocate to the west but some of them will stay and its upto these men to be proactive. I don’t have alot of faith in these to be honest.

I still believe FGS is banking on shidaal. If there is substantial amount of oil, FGS will simply pay off opposing parties, especially AS. Money talks, even regarding Shabaab.

 

[Hilmaam]

The article was in May, now more then 2 months ago.

It seems to me status quo will just remain for couple of years. AS is content on taking areas previously under its control but not directly threatening Xamar. It seems like they are going to wait until western powers (USA) give up on state building of Somalia.

We have already read that many in Trumps administration want to ”contain Somalia and let it burn”. If we have read it, so have AS too.

The ball is in FGS court. I deleted tiktok but before that I listened to a clip by AAW who talked about the usual political topics but he did say the world is changing. Elites in FGS know westerners will pull the plug at one point and leave them in the dust.

Most of them will relocate to the west but some of them will stay and its upto these men to be proactive. I don’t have alot of faith in these to be honest.

I still believe FGS is banking on shidaal. If there is substantial amount of oil, FGS will simply pay off opposing parties, especially AS. Money talks, even regarding Shabaab.

oil is probably 10 yrs out at a minimum and is big unknown today, probably see another 3 presidents before any real production. i do agree a fgs with deep pockets would solve alot of problems, we only 19 million living on huge land. our land would take up almost whole east coast of america and is bigger than every european country other than russia. biggest empires in world came from europe and today somalia bigger than them. but issue its arid land and we fighting over grazing and water. the couple hundred million govt collects from taxes wont make dent on land of this size and peoples so spread out

new york state alone 19.5 million

 

[Midas]

Two factors people seem to be ignoring is that 1) hsm is a uniquely incompetent and tribalistic president. Its very unlikely the next guy will even remotely be as incompetent as hsm is. 2) the situation in kenya and Ethiopia is nowhere near as ecocnomically or politically stable as it was several years ago.

 

[caano_shaah]

Two factors people seem to be ignoring is that 1) hsm is a uniquely incompetent and tribalistic president. Its very unlikely the next guy will even remotely be as incompetent as hsm is.

My mom told me HSM used to be a teacher and has no business being anywhere near politics so you might be right that the next guy can't be nearly as incompetent

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

12k have already left in the last two years and I don’t see m widespread chaos or genocide happening. Even with 70% of international aid cut this year, we’re not seeing mass starvation.

Don’t get me, yes, I agree that short-term instability will rise, but it will be a much needed reset. For years, $1.5B in aid yearly and 30k western paid foreign troops made Somali(especially Xamar’s) elites very lazy. Now, with no money and no protection it’s sink or swim. Its time to either get to work
or risk being overrun by AS, Abiy, or end up a client state of the UAE.

It was only in June that funding cuts really began to bite. I was in Nairobi recently and managed to talk with people in the NGO sector.

US aid to Somalia in 2024 was $480.5 million. Total domestic revenue of the FGS in 2024 was ~$350 million. This means that all of the internal revenue of the FGS is only 73% of the size aid the US gave to Somalia in 2024.

According to the FGS, Somalia's GDP in 2024 was $12.8 billion. This number is likely true because the mobile money companies and hawalas report totals each month to the MoF. Somalia's GDP data is probably better than some middle income countries' data due to the largely cashless nature of society. This means that US aid is 3.7% of Somalia's GDP. Ironically 3.7% was Somalia's GDP growth rate in 2024, so this year's fall in aid will mean that Somalia's GDP will revert to ~2023 levels, meanwhile Somalia's population is ~6% larger than in 2023. So on a per capita basis Somalia will be ~6% poorer this year than it otherwise would have been.

tl;dr the worst is yet to come

 

[X29]

My mom told me HSM used to be a teacher and has no business being anywhere near politics so you might be right that the next guy can't be nearly as incompetent

The problem is how president are selected this is not democracy

 

[Medeea]

they've been saying they will leave for years. there will be some last minute funds found like always. Plus there are troops outside AUSSOM. there is like 7-10k ethiopians inside country outside mission, who wont leave no matter what. Same thing with Kenya. Neither will leave and allow their borders to come at risk. long as all this infighting continues dont expect any big changes. almost whole south border ethiopia got buffer

View attachment 368049

Old map. No ENDF in hiraan.

It was only in June that funding cuts really began to bite. I was in Nairobi recently and managed to talk with people in the NGO sector.

US aid to Somalia in 2024 was $480.5 million. Total domestic revenue of the FGS in 2024 was ~$350 million. This means that all of the internal revenue of the FGS is only 73% of the size aid the US gave to Somalia in 2024.

According to the FGS, Somalia's GDP in 2024 was $12.8 billion. This number is likely true because the mobile money companies and hawalas report totals each month to the MoF. Somalia's GDP data is probably better than some middle income countries' data due to the largely cashless nature of society. This means that US aid is 3.7% of Somalia's GDP. Ironically 3.7% was Somalia's GDP growth rate in 2024, so this year's fall in aid will mean that Somalia's GDP will revert to ~2023 levels, meanwhile Somalia's population is ~6% larger than in 2023. So on a per capita basis Somalia will be ~6% poorer this year than it otherwise would have been.

tl;dr the worst is yet to come

2024 GDP growth was revised to 4.1% not 3.7% as originally forecasted. Also, aid cuts only began sharply in 2025, not 2024. I assume you meant GDP in Q1 2026 will fall back to 2024 levels.

And your calculation isn’t quite accurate because GDP doesn’t drop 1:1 with aid cuts. Yes, even in aid dependent countries. Aid cuts mainly hit government budget/spending, infrastructure, food and healthcare, but GDP includes more than just those factors.
Besides, I believe Remittances will(hopefully) rise to offset some losses. Private sector could also step in.

Also, FGS’s 2025 revenue is set to rise 24–26% to $430–$450M. Still a joke, but the extra $80–100M will definitely soften the blow. And Aid cuts forced them to focus on domestic revenue, and it’s working already. 24% projected growth in 2025 vs 15% average over the past four years.

Still, I agree the short term (2–5 years) will be painful, but it may be beneficial mid/long-term. But I’m not too worried about aid cuts.

What worries me most are:
AS
High birth rates
Somalis getting deported or a Western recession (both could sharply cut remittances).

Can’t have aid and remittance drops at the same time.

Turkey’s 3rd oil seismic study report is due soon. If there’s a major discovery, mass corruption may replace my remittance worries.

 

[Hilmaam]

Old map. No ENDF in hiraan.

2024 GDP growth was revised to 4.1% not 3.7% as originally forecasted. Also, aid cuts only began sharply in 2025, not 2024. I assume you meant GDP in Q1 2026 will fall back to 2024 levels.

And your calculation isn’t quite accurate because GDP doesn’t drop 1:1 with aid cuts. Yes, even in aid dependent countries. Aid cuts mainly hit government budget/spending, infrastructure, food and healthcare, but GDP includes more than just those factors.
Besides, I believe Remittances will(hopefully) rise to offset some losses. Private sector could also step in.

Also, FGS’s 2025 revenue is set to rise 24–26% to $430–$450M. Still a joke, but the extra $80–100M will definitely soften the blow. And Aid cuts forced them to focus on domestic revenue, and it’s working already. 24% projected growth in 2025 vs 14% average over the past four years.

Still, I agree the short term (2–5 years) will be painful, but it may be beneficial mid/long-term. But I’m not too worried about aid cuts.

What worries me most are:
AS
High birth rates
Somalis getting deported or a Western recession (both could sharply cut remittances).

Can’t have aid and remittance drops at the same time.

Turkey’s 3rd oil seismic study report is due soon. If there’s a major discovery, mass corruption may replace my remittance worries.

They are there and in force Hiraan is hotbed they won’t leave would be foolish

 

[El Nino]

oil is probably 10 yrs out at a minimum and is big unknown today, probably see another 3 presidents before any real production. i do agree a fgs with deep pockets would solve alot of problems, we only 19 million living on huge land. our land would take up almost whole east coast of america and is bigger than every european country other than russia. biggest empires in world came from europe and today somalia bigger than them. but issue its arid land and we fighting over grazing and water. the couple hundred million govt collects from taxes wont make dent on land of this size and peoples so spread out

new york state alone 19.5 million

View attachment 368051

There only needs to be confirmation of vast oil reserves to guarantee FGS victory. Oil will be needed for atleast the next 50 years, we will eat good from it. AS leadership knows nobody will buy oik from us, if they are in charge.

If the rumoured 20 billion barrels are true, we might see even see AS agree to a peace deal in 2027.