OPINION Will Somalia suffer the same fate as Afghanistan when AMISOM leave?

[World]

The same thing would never happen in somalia as AS is internationalist jihadist group with idea of conquering whole of horn of Africa and beyond under the name of Al Qaeda.

Taliban is a local Afghan deobandi Islamist group that wants to rule Afghanistan only if ICU existed now it would have been a fair comparison as ICU was Somali home grown Islamists group.

Yes that’s true. ICU was far less extreme than the Taliban though. But militarily speaking, the same thing would happen in regards to al shabab.

 

[Gantaal97]

You call it occupied? So you rather have the taliban controll all of Afghanistan and misstreat everybody? Girls can not go to school and they get married off to taliban fighters by force

Most Afghans support Taliban isn't that they came from the sky the people in Afghanistan allowed them to take more territories in the country

 

[mr steal your naag]

The same thing would never happen in somalia as AS is internationalist jihadist group with idea of conquering whole of horn of Africa and beyond under the name of Al Qaeda.

Taliban is a local Afghan deobandi Islamist group that wants to rule Afghanistan only if ICU existed now it would have been a fair comparison as ICU was Somali home grown Islamists group.

Yeah they are very delusional if they think they can rule the entire horn Habeshas would never allow including eritreans

 

[Gantaal97]

Yes that’s true. ICU was far less extreme than the Taliban though. But militarily speaking, the same thing would happen.

Yeah it was but both are home grown Islamists groups with different ideologies or views regarding political Islam

 

[mr steal your naag]

Most Afghans support Taliban isn't that they came from the sky the people in Afghanistan allowed them to take more territories in the country

But why would they support them i have seen many vidoes of afghan civilians complaining about them and they kidnap young females from the cities they conquered

 

[Al Muslim]

Its crazy that BIDEN decided to pull out of Afghanistan they knew exacly what would happen

The americans despite their arrogance and hubris at the beginning of the war realise now that they have been defeated and have no choice but to withdraw. They spent 20 years fighting, trillions of dollars and all they have to show for it is thousands of dead american soldiers who were killed like dogs.

إِنَّ الَّذِينَ كَفَرُوا يُنْفِقُونَ أَمْوَالَهُمْ لِيَصُدُّوا عَنْ سَبِيلِ اللَّهِ ۚ فَسَيُنْفِقُونَهَا ثُمَّ تَكُونُ عَلَيْهِمْ حَسْرَةً ثُمَّ يُغْلَبُونَ ۗ وَالَّذِينَ كَفَرُوا إِلَىٰ جَهَنَّمَ يُحْشَرُونَ

Indeed, those who disbelieve spend their wealth to avert [people] from the way of Allah . So they will spend it; then it will be for them a [source of] regret; then they will be overcome. And those who have disbelieved - unto Hell they will be gathered.

سورة الأنفال 36

 

[Gantaal97]

But why would they support them i have seen many vidoes of afghan civilians complaining about them and they kidnap young females from the cities they conquered

Tribal affiliation and their strict rule where convicts are punished and big reason for Taliban support is how corrupt Afghan govt and their warlord allies were for the last 20 years where they enriched themselves while average citizen still lives in poverty

 

[reer]

Yeah it was but both are home grown Islamists groups with different ideologies or views regarding political Islam

icu were going to split. they had multiple ideologies and non hawiyes would get pissed off like when ittihad were removed from gedo.

 

[Gantaal97]

icu were going to split. they had multiple ideologies and non hawiyes would get pissed off like when ittihad were removed from gedo.

Yeah you're right ICU wasn't unified like Taliban and we saw how it went when Ethiopians invaded somalia

 

[World]

I wonder what’s going to happen next in Afghanistan, will taliban eventually split and fight against each other? I don’t think they are as united as people say they are.

 

[mr steal your naag]

I wonder what’s going to happen next in Afghanistan, will taliban eventually split and fight against each other? I don’t think they are as united as people say they are.

They will probably become a political party

 

[World]

Yeah you're right ICU wasn't unified like Taliban and we saw how it went when Ethiopians invaded somalia

Why were the taliban so much more unified than the icu? I think the fact that they were around way before islamic terrorist groups was a thing is a factor. They existed before 9/11 unlike the icu so these islamic terrorist groups who want to conquer the world couldn’t establish a stronghold in Afghanistan and divide them.

 

[reer]

Yeah you're right ICU wasn't unified like Taliban and we saw how it went when Ethiopians invaded somalia

that was probably why shabab quickly reigned in on xisbul islam and clan militias who allied with them.

 

[Interested]

You call it occupied? So you rather have the taliban controll all of Afghanistan and misstreat everybody? Girls can not go to school and they get married off to taliban fighters by force

Peace>>>
Now there won't be two sides warring and mass civilian deaths like before, unless another armed movement emerge. Other theocracies exists, SA and Iran to be exact and people there still thrive. Afghans can lobby for the acceptable progressive policies.

I've seen some recent interviews of their leaders..I think they are going to soften their stance against female education, they have already done something similar in some recently captured cities, as in only hijab is compulsory not Niqab, they know the whole world is watching, they can't risk being alienated like North Korea.
Let's hope for the best.

 

[Macalin dheerow]

People here are overestimating Al-shabaab. They are militia, same as everybody. The question is do those who oppose Al-shabaab have the will to defeat it? Galmudug is soon Inshallah Al-kebab free. It will be a matter before this causes a domino effect.

I actually think Al-shabaab will fracture in qabiil lines if Amisom leaves. A lot of qabiils support Al-shabaab because it gives them protection and also ability to gain power and firearms. Its a tool for them. Qabiils would not support other qabiil overruling them, thus Al-shabaab fracturing. It would be a good opportunity to beat them.

 

[TheSayid]

taliban didn't face resistance, the governors surrendered after negotiations. i highly doubt shabaab would operate that way as they view almost everyone as murtads

 

[Ismail99]

@World 50/50 depends on how good they utilize clan conflicts, for example in Jubba they can unite with MX to take back Kismaayo.

 

[SPMLegend]

@World 50/50 depends on how good they utilize clan conflicts, for example in Jubba they can unite with MX to take back Kismaayo.

why would a boon refugee be allowed by Ogaden back into their city

 

[SPMLegend]

Alshabab are no where near the level of the Taliban but they shouldn’t be under estimated. AMISOM is pretty much useless. The only cities that may be contested is Mogadishu and Baidoa for they are too much complex and lots of different hands managing the security. Farmaajo wasted 4 precious years dividing the nation when the Khawarijis could have been fought and degraded.

 

[Boqorada]

I don't think anyone wants to be a gaajo Al Shabaab. They don't earn anything, they're in the mountains for months living rough. These men are uneducated asf. Give them education and a means of living and they'll be no more. You kill hundreds or thousands and hundreds/thousands rise up because they're sick of the way the gov runs the country. All the corruption needs to end.