Will Somalia get the Resource curse/Dutch disease ?

[Barkhadle1520]

The first barrels have officially been announced for 2026, but as the oil revenues increase in a few years wouldn't Somalia have chances of ending up like Venezuela ?

 

[The truth seeker]

Venezuela is in a poor shape because of Hugo cavez and American sanctions


Somalia has great geography longest coast line in Africa and easy access to major shipping lanes it could easily be the California of Africa under the right leadership and with enough foreign investment (Personally I would trust Japan way more than turkey they stash most there wealth overseas anyway )

 

[NidarNidar]

Venezuela is in a poor shape because of Hugo cavez and American sanctions


Somalia has great geography longest coast line in Africa and easy access to major shipping lanes it could easily be the California of Africa under the right leadership and with enough foreign investment (Personally I would trust Japan way more than turkey they stash most there wealth overseas anyway )

We are in a position where we pretty much in the good books of the EU/US and with Turkey as a partner, the next Somali president will set the standard, if HSM wins, we will be going into a worse timeline.

 

[The truth seeker]

We are in a position where we pretty much in the good books of the EU/US and with Turkey as a partner, the next Somali president will set the standard, if HSM wins, we will be going into a worse timeline.

Japan is honest partner biggest investor in other nations Somalia should do joint ventures with them rather than turkey who has imperialist fever dreams

 

[Barkhadle1520]

Venezuela is in a poor shape because of Hugo cavez and American sanctions


Somalia has great geography longest coast line in Africa and easy access to major shipping lanes it could easily be the California of Africa under the right leadership and with enough foreign investment (Personally I would trust Japan way more than turkey they stash most there wealth overseas anyway )

The potential is honestly insane, even when you set oil aside fishery can generate immense wealth in international markets, natural gas we don't really know how much there is but its probably in huge amounts like oil, you also got a huge energy potential on the coast apparently, people forget electricity can also be an export

 

[Sigmundd]

Dua is the most powerful weapon when it comes to saving Somalia. These couple of months has given me optimism I have never had. Just pray we have the right leader for next year. We can't afford to have hsm stay seated when technically he should be impeached and imprisoned let alone run for the next election.

 

[Barkhadle1520]

We are in a position where we pretty much in the good books of the EU/US and with Turkey as a partner, the next Somali president will set the standard, if HSM wins, we will be going into a worse timeline.

Really wish that doesn't happen but then imagine if they just elect another biggot like him, for example :



Somalis aren't educated enough for democracy wAllahi if theres no mass prevention, they will just vote for their clan and not for a capable non corrupt leader

 

[Barkhadle1520]

Japan is honest partner biggest investor in other nations Somalia should do joint ventures with them rather than turkey who has imperialist fever dreams

I'm pretty sure Japan has already expressed favorable relations with Somalia not so long ago

 

[Barkhadle1520]

Dua is the most powerful weapon when it comes to saving Somalia. These couple of months has given me optimism I have never had. Just pray we have the right leader for next year. We can't afford to have hsm stay seated when technically he should be impeached and imprisoned let alone run for the next election.

This is crazy tho I can't stop thinking about it, how can you possibly clean the government from corruption when almost everyone is hands deep in it.. But its also HSM's fault, for example he put his inadeer as chief of NISA and that guy is arguably the most corrupt chief of NISA in the history of Somalia

 

[The truth seeker]

Really wish that doesn't happen but then imagine if they just elect another biggot like him, for example :



Somalis aren't educated enough for democracy wAllahi if theres no mass prevention, they will just vote for their clan and not for a capable non corrupt leader

In order to to reach the living standards of a high income economy you have to have inclusive economic and inclusive poltical institutions


In the groundbreaking book Why nations fail the economist argues strongly that China would in a much better shape than it is today if they had inclusive political institutions like wen Jiabo had suggested

 

[Barkhadle1520]

Venezuela is in a poor shape because of Hugo cavez and American sanctions


Somalia has great geography longest coast line in Africa and easy access to major shipping lanes it could easily be the California of Africa under the right leadership and with enough foreign investment (Personally I would trust Japan way more than turkey they stash most there wealth overseas anyway )

Yeah but I was referring to Dutch disease

 

[Sigmundd]

This is crazy tho I can't stop thinking about it, how can you possibly clean the government from corruption when almost everyone is hands deep in it.. But its also HSM's fault, for example he put his inadeer as chief of NISA and that guy is arguably the most corrupt chief of NISA in the history of Somalia

Is all around corrupt Somalia. I don't understand why hsm and his cronies aren't investigated and impeached? he's single handily destroying Somalia. He has not done a single good thing for the country. If he's elected than I don't think Somalia will ever survive. It would be the end for greater Somalia. and a win for Ethiopia and Kenya.

 

[Barkhadle1520]

Is all around corrupt Somalia. I don't understand why hsm and his cronies aren't investigated and impeached? he's single handily destroying Somalia. He has not done a single good thing for the country. If he's elected than I don't think Somalia will ever survive. It would be the end for greater Somalia. and a win for Ethiopia and Kenya.

And who would impeach him ?


Walaal this man literally runs a mafia, his inadeer Salad who is head of NISA does the dirty work for him

Only thing people can do is calcal and just hope hes gone in 2026
https://www.somalispot.com/threads/...-the-2026-lections.180525/page-5#post-4327561

 

[Sigmundd]

And who would impeach him ?


Walaal this man literally runs a mafia, his inadeer Salad who is head of NISA does the dirty work for him

View attachment 365162
View attachment 365163

Only thing people can do is calcal and just hope hes gone in 2026
https://www.somalispot.com/threads/...-the-2026-lections.180525/page-5#post-4327561

Bruh you telling me he runs a whole mafia? this guy ain't stopping until he continues to ruin Somalia. You really think Somaliland won't become independent if he's still around? this would just make America more interested to recognise us.

 

[Midas]

Im not too worried about dutch disease. Like ive said before most of the major oil producing countries began producing oil several decades when they were all way less developed than Somalia. In terms of urbanization, literacy, education, etc .

 

[Midas]

This is crazy tho I can't stop thinking about it, how can you possibly clean the government from corruption when almost everyone is hands deep in it.. But its also HSM's fault,

I dont think people appreciate how much of the so called forever corruption of Somalia is really just the facts that hsm was president in that pivotal 2012 period when the fgs was formed. Alshab had just been pushed out of mogadishu and the foreigners weren't in control like they were before. That was the pivotal moment whoever became president then would shape the future of somalia. We somehow got the most corrupt guy ever to hold office and the rest is history.

What's honestly even worse though and is a condemnation of the entire somali poltical class. Is that all these guys complaining about hsm now choose him again even though they knew how terrible he was.

 

[Karim]

We'll be in this cycle of endless misery with or without oil if Mogadishu continues to be the capital.

 

[Idilinaa]

Short answer No. Somalia has already a very diversified multi sector economy. So oil money will just super charge what is already happening.

We shouldn't fall into the mistake of importing economical models and situations from other regions or countries that might not apply. Since Somalia's economy and society operates differently.

Because the most important feature of the cooperative businesses model is that they all reinvest across multiple sectors and across borders so wealth is rarely concentrated in one sector or in one area. If the oil/energy sector receives a boost the other sectors will receive a boost as well.

Something i said months ago:

Also not true. Somalia's economy doesn't even function like Nigeria's or Gulf Arab countries, Canada or UK, it has never been dependent on a single industry. It's has already a diverse economic base: Agriculture, Fishing, Telecommunications, Banking & Fintech, Construction , Logistics & Trade, Manufacturing

Unlike Nigeria, Somalia does not rely on one resource like oil. It has many active sectors already!

In Somalia, businesses are Somali-owned, not multinational corporations. Somalis reinvest profits locally, they don’t offshore their money to foreign banks like Gulf states do.

Private entrepreneurship is deeply embedded in Somali culture, traders, small businesses, transport, farming, livestock, tech startups, etc.

Diaspora-driven investment (remittances, business partnerships) boosts every sector.
This makes Somalia resilient and highly self-reliant compared to places like Nigeria or Canada.

Oil Revenue Would Be Used to Accelerate Local Diversification, Not Trap the Economy:

If oil revenues are managed properly, they can:

• - Build infrastructure (roads, airports, ports, electricity).
• -Expand industries (agriculture, fishing, manufacturing).
• -Fund education, healthcare, and technology hubs.

Basically, Oil would be a booster, not a dependency. Because Somalia already functions without oil, adding oil revenues will supercharge what's already happening, not replace it.

To sum it up. Somalia already has a highly diversified, locally owned economy. Oil revenues would be a bonus for an economy that is already growing across multiple sectors: livestock, fishing, fintech, trade, construction, manufacturing. Somalia is self-reliant and entrepreneurial, and profits are reinvested into Somalia itself, not funneled abroad.

Unlike Nigeria (oil dependency) or the Gulf (foreign labor), Somalia is a competitive, internally-driven economy with one of the most decentralized and resilient private sectors in Africa.

 

[IKHALIIL]

With hsm leading somalia