WHAT DO YOU GUYS THINK? DO YOU THINK THE NON HABESHA REGIONS OF ETHIOPIA WILL EVER FORM THEIR OWN NATIONS?
WILL ETHIOPIA BALKANIZE?
- Thread starter BetterDaysAhead
- Start date
I WOULD LOVE TO SEE GAMBELA, SNNPR, OROMIA AND SIDAMA FORM THEIR OWN NATIONS 
Medulla
Bah Qabiil Fluid
It could happen but I doubt it will at the same time, literally one f*ck up is all it takes for ethiopia to get into self D mode . However, I trust they will manage the issue without it getting to that stage , noone wants to become the next Somalia .
Here's a article on this exact topic comparing it to Yugo
Here's a article on this exact topic comparing it to Yugo
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Lol I hope these bastards become Somalia in 91
Let’s see what they do then kkkkkk
if multiple states all dipped the country will collapse quick
Let’s see what they do then kkkkkk
if multiple states all dipped the country will collapse quick
Medulla
Bah Qabiil Fluid
I doubt we will get that we already have abiy and public support for dealing with eriteria problem . Oromia is a hassle for us
ARE YOU REALLY AN OROMO?
Medulla
Bah Qabiil Fluid
I mean "we" as a outsider looking in not me relating to them . Can't you use we in this manner? English aint my first language so if im wrong do tell me
NO YOU CAN I WAS JUST WONDERING IF YOU WERE OROMO JUDGING FROM YOUR PAST PRO OROMO POSTS
WHATS YOUR FIRST LANGUAGE?
Medulla
Bah Qabiil Fluid
Pro-Oromo posts have a time and place I dont want to see the destruction of Ethiopia for my dream of Oromia I doubt my family would be happy with that
Secret :D
Allahu yaclam. Too many variables But TPLF remain armed to the teeth. Elections: if an when?
Here is a most likely and peaceful scenario that allows something similar to what you bring up: OLF, TPLF, and other ethnic liberation parties dominate elections and they all go to parliament with their grievances against old Ethiopia regimes. Then they all agree to peacefully hold article39 elections in every kilil.
And then recognize every states's decision. Then, I think only Amxaara and MAYBE Debub kilil will remain rest of kilils independent. Then 5th kilil breaks up into atleast 5 entities with SL and DJ likely both sponsoring their own prixies, possibly controlling Jigjiga and DiriDhaba, respecticely
Every politician in Ethiopia is aware of the scenario you described for kilil 5. If only disintegration brings peace and prosperity, I will be for it but it will be hell, everybody will be fighting for every inch of land with no end in sight. Besides even though there is many grievances, the majority ordinary Ethiopians still want to remain inside Ethiopia.
If you start an independence movement in any kilil you will literally torn the society of that kilil apart with a possible civil war outcome between pro independent vs pro unity forces both aided by outside forces will be fighting each other. No one wants to end up in such a mess. Add to that the economic burden. No kilil can sustain alone. They all are subsidised by the fed.
The fed brings all the investment, gets foreign loans and grants, executes infrastructural projects like roads & universities and has a army that safeguards you from outside intervention etc. Cutting yourself from all that including Ethiopian airlines etc. and paying every service with hard currency is almost impossible for most kilils.
Because of this and many parameters, currently I know no political party that is officially pushing for independence except one very tiny party in Tigray that was established a month ago by one crazy individual but even in Tigray you have zero chance of getting the support of the majority and TPLF will not let it this party anywhere. This will just torn the kilil apart.
So the answer to your question is no. We ain't fools
I hope you're right. No balkanization and maybe even union between Itoobiya Aritraya and JamhuuriyaddaSoomaaliyeed and Jabuuti. But only if those people want. I support selfdetermination for each kilil.Every politician in Ethiopia is aware of the scenario you described for kilil 5. If only disintegration brings peace and prosperity, I will be for it but it will be hell, everybody will be fighting for every inch of land with no end in sight. Besides even though there is many grievances, the majority ordinary Ethiopians still want to remain inside Ethiopia.
If you start an independence movement in any kilil you will literally torn the society of that kilil apart with a possible civil war outcome between pro independent vs pro unity forces both aided by outside forces will be fighting each other. No one wants to end up in such a mess. Add to that the economic burden. No kilil can sustain alone. They all are subsidised by the fed.
The fed brings all the investment, gets foreign loans and grants, executes infrastructural projects like roads & universities and has a army that safeguards you from outside intervention etc. Cutting yourself from all that including Ethiopian airlines etc. and paying every service with hard currency is almost impossible for most kilils.
Because of this and many parameters, currently I know no political party that is officially pushing for independence except one very tiny party in Tigray that was established a month ago by one crazy individual but even in Tigray you have zero chance of getting the support of the majority and TPLF will not let it this party anywhere. This will just torn the kilil apart.
So the answer to your question is no. We ain't fools
I think the "tribalist" parties will dominate elections in WesterOromiya and EasternOromiya and most of the lowlands. They will push to invoke article39 for what they consider their "nation"
The question is whether other "tribalist" parties and OLF-like factions will peacefully do article39. And, how many piece and how peacefully each kilil brraks into? Especially kilil 5. Once central government is gone, even Jigjiga could end up partitioned. How violent is another question? Lot's of variables and the first one is what will TPLF do with their military power
I also agree Tigarus do not want i dependence unless they swallow Aritraya
Side note about TPLF military dominance
There was an article about military officer demographics. Things looked balance till you reached the rank of Colonel. Then Tigarus were like 60% from colonel to ranks of general.
Yes, in western and easter Oromia the "tribalist" may win although they will be different parties. OLF in the west and OFC in the east but still until now there is no oromo politician or party that is pushing even mentioning article 39. Article 39 will completely destroy Oromia by dividing the region into pro and against article 39 camps, easter vs western camps, orthodox vs muslim camps etc. Add to that the more than 10 million non-Oromos who live in Oromia who will never support this route and do whatever they can to prevent it. Additionally Oromia will be drugged in multiple border conflicts with Somalia, Amhara, Southern and also Addis Ababa. As far as I know all Oromo politicians know this fact well and are not pushing for this kind of madness. They are rather preferring to lead, shape and dominate the Ethiopian political landscape which I think is the wiser choice.
When it comes to Tigray, majority of ordinary Tigreans are pro Ethiopia anyway. I have to meet any tigrean in real life who is seriously don't consider himself Ethiopian. I don't think any party with secession ambitions will get any tangible support in Tigray and as long as TPLF is in power in Tigray, it will never allow this kind of madness knowing very well this will be suicidal move for Tigray especially economically.
And yes, tigrean officers dominated in the past the high ranking positions in the army but after Abiy came to power he made a huge reshuffle and currently their number is reduced significantly and are replaced mostly by Oromo and Amharas. The Chief of stuff is now Amhara and his deputy is Oromo. The low ranking officers were dominated by Amhara and Southern followed by Oromo even during the TPLF rule.
To be honest, I don't see anyone is using or even trying to use article 39 in the near future unless he/she wants to be beaten out of the political landscape altogether. Only delusional fools like Abdi Illey try this adventure
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