Why Puntland is right

Abaq

VIP
Disclaimer:
I am a political commentator. I study the politics of the day and comment upon any salient points I come across. The commentary should not be taken to represent my personal opinion on the matter unless explicitly stated as such.

The current constitutional changes have brought to the forefront an old debate, one which predates the FGS itself but most Somalis fail to comprehend. Whether by happenstance or design, the debate is buried by layers of tribal insults and sophistry such that many fail to appreciate the finer detail.

Let me say it clearly at the beginning, Puntland's stance is not based on qabyaalad or the need to always be in control. Rather, if one is fair, Puntland's (I mean here the MJ elite's) position on this debate has remained constant since the early 90s.

When the civil war happened in 1991 and the total collapse of the state followed, major atrocities took place in the country. Dadkii way kala irdhoobeen - all good will and trust was lost between the clans. Each man returned to his ancestral homeland. To prevent the further decay of the country and total balkanization, the Somali elite accross all clans attemoted to bring the nation back together again and to reconstitute the fallen state (Abdullahi Yusuf, Caydiid, Abdirahman Tuur etc). The major sticking point at the time and today was the form of government and how power would be shared. The MJ position then was quite clear: dadkii way is dileen oo way kala aamin bexeen, sida kaliya ee la isugu soo celin karo waa nidaam federaal ah oo wax la wada leeyahay waxna la kala leeyahay si loo kala badbaado - the people have killed each other and all trust has been lost, the only way to reconcile the people is with a federal system where some things are shored and others devolved. At the time, Hawiye led by caydiid and Iiddoor led by Tuur refused federalism. Irir viewed themselves as victors of the civil war and as such they felt it was their right to dictate the terms of the peace and they didn't want federalism, they wanted a North-South system based on centralism. MJs refused and went on to create their own system.

Fast forward to when the TFG was created, once again MJ stated their demands for them to return to the table: federalism and power-sharing. Just like 4.5, federalism was accepted as an imperfect solution to bring the nation back together again after a brutal civil war.

This is where many proponents of centralism and supporters of HSM's centralising policies go wrong. They claim that Somalis never agreed upon Federalism. It is true that a referendum was never held, however Federalism and 4.5 were bargaining positions to bring the main warring sides together to revive the state. They are the two original pillars upon which the Somali state was reconstituted and the reason Puntland returned to the state building process in the first place (specifically federalism for them). Now, one party of the agreement (Hawiye) cannot unilaterally walk away from one of the fundamental points upon which the peace sits, namely Federalism. To do so, they have to negotiate with the original signatories (namely Puntland here). If Hawiye (or HSM as he currently represents them) persist on this choice, then Puntland will have every right to walk away as they can legitimately claim the original agreement has been broken.

In summary, Somali underwent a brutal civil war. Peace and revival of the state was brought by compromise not the barrel of the gun. That peace rests on two pillars: 4.5 and federalism. No one party can remove either pillar without the consent of all the original signatories.
 

Bazed

Tired.
VIP
It seems there is a consensus on removing 4.5, or at least the political class are always willing to use the idea of 1m1v to boost themselves before leaving office. Federalism can work but 4.5 needs to die, we need accountability and that can only come about when people are beholden to the citizens of the nation.
 

Abaq

VIP
It seems there is a consensus on removing 4.5, or at least the political class are always willing to use the idea of 1m1v to boost themselves before leaving office. Federalism can work but 4.5 needs to die, we need accountability and that can only come about when people are beholden to the citizens of the nation.
That's all very nice, but Hawiye cannot unilaterally cull federalism. Otherwise, Puntland is justified in withdrawing from the Federal institutions. If this happens, then everyone will return to their village as Farmaajo prophesied - he wasn't just saying that it's actually the reality awaiting us. The only way to overcome this is another national conference where all parties can reconvene and decide upon the state structure. However, you then run the risk that one or more parties will walk away and the Somali government will be lost for good.

HSM and co really caused a constitutional mess and I don't think they even realise it. Tragic.
 
Disclaimer:
I am a political commentator. I study the politics of the day and comment upon any salient points I come across. The commentary should not be taken to represent my personal opinion on the matter unless explicitly stated as such.

The current constitutional changes have brought to the forefront an old debate, one which predates the FGS itself but most Somalis fail to comprehend. Whether by happenstance or design, the debate is buried by layers of tribal insults and sophistry such that many fail to appreciate the finer detail.

Let me say it clearly at the beginning, Puntland's stance is not based on qabyaalad or the need to always be in control. Rather, if one is fair, Puntland's (I mean here the MJ elite's) position on this debate has remained constant since the early 90s.

When the civil war happened in 1991 and the total collapse of the state followed, major atrocities took place in the country. Dadkii way kala irdhoobeen - all good will and trust was lost between the clans. Each man returned to his ancestral homeland. To prevent the further decay of the country and total balkanization, the Somali elite accross all clans attemoted to bring the nation back together again and to reconstitute the fallen state (Abdullahi Yusuf, Caydiid, Abdirahman Tuur etc). The major sticking point at the time and today was the form of government and how power would be shared. The MJ position then was quite clear: dadkii way is dileen oo way kala aamin bexeen, sida kaliya ee la isugu soo celin karo waa nidaam federaal ah oo wax la wada leeyahay waxna la kala leeyahay si loo kala badbaado - the people have killed each other and all trust has been lost, the only way to reconcile the people is with a federal system where some things are shored and others devolved. At the time, Hawiye led by caydiid and Iiddoor led by Tuur refused federalism. Irir viewed themselves as victors of the civil war and as such they felt it was their right to dictate the terms of the peace and they didn't want federalism, they wanted a North-South system based on centralism. MJs refused and went on to create their own system.

Fast forward to when the TFG was created, once again MJ stated their demands for them to return to the table: federalism and power-sharing. Just like 4.5, federalism was accepted as an imperfect solution to bring the nation back together again after a brutal civil war.

This is where many proponents of centralism and supporters of HSM's centralising policies go wrong. They claim that Somalis never agreed upon Federalism. It is true that a referendum was never held, however Federalism and 4.5 were bargaining positions to bring the main warring sides together to revive the state. They are the two original pillars upon which the Somali state was reconstituted and the reason Puntland returned to the state building process in the first place (specifically federalism for them). Now, one party of the agreement (Hawiye) cannot unilaterally walk away from one of the fundamental points upon which the peace sits, namely Federalism. To do so, they have to negotiate with the original signatories (namely Puntland here). If Hawiye (or HSM as he currently represents them) persist on this choice, then Puntland will have every right to walk away as they can legitimately claim the original agreement has been broken.

In summary, Somali underwent a brutal civil war. Peace and revival of the state was brought by compromise not the barrel of the gun. That peace rests on two pillars: 4.5 and federalism. No one party can remove either pillar without the consent of all the original signatories.

It wasn't the right time to remove federalism for Puntland. The rest of the states didn't really care.

The FGS would have had to prove itself by providing huge grants (multiples of revenue) to Puntland over a number of years before Puntland would be comfortable handing over powers and assets.

However, that's in an ideal world but in the real world deals are made to be broken.

And who cares? Most of the country isn't going to mourn. Puntland will go off and do their thing for as long as the south remains a shambles which is probably forever.
 

Abaq

VIP
It wasn't the right time to remove federalism for Puntland. The rest of the states didn't really care.

The FGS would have had to prove itself by providing huge grants (multiples of revenue) to Puntland over a number of years before Puntland would be comfortable handing over powers and assets.

However, that's in an ideal world but in the real world deals are made to be broken.

And who cares? Most of the country isn't going to mourn. Puntland will go off and do their thing for as long as the south remains a shambles which is probably forever.
What’s more likely to happen is a regression where every man will return to his tuulo. The FGS will lose prominence and the states will drift further away.

I personally am happy in my city of Kismayo

 

Nin123

Hunted
VIP
What’s more likely to happen is a regression where every man will return to his tuulo. The FGS will lose prominence and the states will drift further away.

I personally am happy in my city of Kismayo

Nc State Sport GIF by NCAA March Madness
 
What’s more likely to happen is a regression where every man will return to his tuulo. The FGS will lose prominence and the states will drift further away.

I personally am happy in my city of Kismayo


Without a popular movement to liberate the country and install FGS rule then what's the point of the constitution?

People are thinking backwards.

And overestimating the value of the piece of paper.

No one is dying to put the FGS in charge.
 
Disclaimer:
I am a political commentator. I study the politics of the day and comment upon any salient points I come across. The commentary should not be taken to represent my personal opinion on the matter unless explicitly stated as such.

The current constitutional changes have brought to the forefront an old debate, one which predates the FGS itself but most Somalis fail to comprehend. Whether by happenstance or design, the debate is buried by layers of tribal insults and sophistry such that many fail to appreciate the finer detail.

Let me say it clearly at the beginning, Puntland's stance is not based on qabyaalad or the need to always be in control. Rather, if one is fair, Puntland's (I mean here the MJ elite's) position on this debate has remained constant since the early 90s.

When the civil war happened in 1991 and the total collapse of the state followed, major atrocities took place in the country. Dadkii way kala irdhoobeen - all good will and trust was lost between the clans. Each man returned to his ancestral homeland. To prevent the further decay of the country and total balkanization, the Somali elite accross all clans attemoted to bring the nation back together again and to reconstitute the fallen state (Abdullahi Yusuf, Caydiid, Abdirahman Tuur etc). The major sticking point at the time and today was the form of government and how power would be shared. The MJ position then was quite clear: dadkii way is dileen oo way kala aamin bexeen, sida kaliya ee la isugu soo celin karo waa nidaam federaal ah oo wax la wada leeyahay waxna la kala leeyahay si loo kala badbaado - the people have killed each other and all trust has been lost, the only way to reconcile the people is with a federal system where some things are shored and others devolved. At the time, Hawiye led by caydiid and Iiddoor led by Tuur refused federalism. Irir viewed themselves as victors of the civil war and as such they felt it was their right to dictate the terms of the peace and they didn't want federalism, they wanted a North-South system based on centralism. MJs refused and went on to create their own system.

Fast forward to when the TFG was created, once again MJ stated their demands for them to return to the table: federalism and power-sharing. Just like 4.5, federalism was accepted as an imperfect solution to bring the nation back together again after a brutal civil war.

This is where many proponents of centralism and supporters of HSM's centralising policies go wrong. They claim that Somalis never agreed upon Federalism. It is true that a referendum was never held, however Federalism and 4.5 were bargaining positions to bring the main warring sides together to revive the state. They are the two original pillars upon which the Somali state was reconstituted and the reason Puntland returned to the state building process in the first place (specifically federalism for them). Now, one party of the agreement (Hawiye) cannot unilaterally walk away from one of the fundamental points upon which the peace sits, namely Federalism. To do so, they have to negotiate with the original signatories (namely Puntland here). If Hawiye (or HSM as he currently represents them) persist on this choice, then Puntland will have every right to walk away as they can legitimately claim the original agreement has been broken.

In summary, Somali underwent a brutal civil war. Peace and revival of the state was brought by compromise not the barrel of the gun. That peace rests on two pillars: 4.5 and federalism. No one party can remove either pillar without the consent of all the original signatories.
In principle, and in part, I am in agreement with the overall premise of your argument, but let me advance one strand of it as to when and how the nation could move past the impasse:
  • The 4.5 formulae could be eliminated ONLY after FMSs and FGS could implement democratic elections is all Districts, and at the Federal level, till then State Institutions incl. Parliament and Executive shall be derived on the 4.5 basis.
Let us not conflate fantasy with veracity: politics 101, here is a likely scenario: No elections could be held in 2025-2026, yet the 4.5 formulae had been banished. Then what? How does one grant State institutions, say Parliament to elect leaders, legitimacy and mandate to govern? No can do.
  • Do away with unilateral amendments, and rush not the political process, for there is an order to managing political matters: reach political agreement at first, then move on to the more contentious matters, which derive esteem from political agreements.
 

Libaax-Joore

Beesha haplogroup e-by8081
VIP
Puntland is better than qaranka baridaweyn SNM according to abgaal professor
 

DR OSMAN

AF NAAREED
VIP
In principle, and in part, I am in agreement with the overall premise of your argument, but let me advance one strand of it as to when and how the nation could move past the impasse:
  • The 4.5 formulae could be eliminated ONLY after FMSs and FGS could implement democratic elections is all Districts, and at the Federal level, till then State Institutions incl. Parliament and Executive shall be derived on the 4.5 basis.
Let us not conflate fantasy with veracity: politics 101, here is a likely scenario: No elections could be held in 2025-2026, yet the 4.5 formulae had been banished. Then what? How does one grant State institutions, say Parliament to elect leaders, legitimacy and mandate to govern? No can do.
  • Do away with unilateral amendments, and rush not the political process, for there is an order to managing political matters: reach political agreement at first, then move on to the more contentious matters, which derive esteem from political agreements.

I have one problem with 4.5 using 4.5 tribal power sharing principle itself since hawiye and dir are one clan called irir why do they get separate clan power sharing? I mean even if you used the 4.5 formula their clearly violating and double dipping and should infact get one portion as irir. .

They can't eat their cake both ways by being politically allies under irir tribal umbrella and demand their quota as separate tribes. 4.5 should be 3.5 which is darod, irir, rahanwayn and minorities. This is about tribal power sharing in a political context and since irir are one tribe in a political context they warrant one tribe portion.

Their separate tribes only traditionally not politically and 4.5 is about political power sharing and therefore they should be under irir as one clan power sharing quota which supports the 4.5 principle.

This 4.5 is clearly created in carta and influenced and meddling done by irir godfather Djibouti a very destabilizing actor in Somalia recovery. May that fat dictator get overthrown by the anfar democratic rebellion where majority rules not a minority issa. If issa is gone somalia recovery would be overnight.

@Abaq
 
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Puntland is wrong. The international community aka pimp of somalia had such a sour taste about last "election" things that happened is ceel qaalow, bosaso mps selection, the whole FEIT and SEIT nonsense that rooble shat all over with the help of puntland. The 3 am letters between farmaajo and rooble.

The international community aka overlords of somalia well welcome anything other then the shitshow of last time.

Ulusow will hand pick every single mp in 2025/2026
 
Disclaimer:
I am a political commentator. I study the politics of the day and comment upon any salient points I come across. The commentary should not be taken to represent my personal opinion on the matter unless explicitly stated as such.

The current constitutional changes have brought to the forefront an old debate, one which predates the FGS itself but most Somalis fail to comprehend. Whether by happenstance or design, the debate is buried by layers of tribal insults and sophistry such that many fail to appreciate the finer detail.

Let me say it clearly at the beginning, Puntland's stance is not based on qabyaalad or the need to always be in control. Rather, if one is fair, Puntland's (I mean here the MJ elite's) position on this debate has remained constant since the early 90s.

When the civil war happened in 1991 and the total collapse of the state followed, major atrocities took place in the country. Dadkii way kala irdhoobeen - all good will and trust was lost between the clans. Each man returned to his ancestral homeland. To prevent the further decay of the country and total balkanization, the Somali elite accross all clans attemoted to bring the nation back together again and to reconstitute the fallen state (Abdullahi Yusuf, Caydiid, Abdirahman Tuur etc). The major sticking point at the time and today was the form of government and how power would be shared. The MJ position then was quite clear: dadkii way is dileen oo way kala aamin bexeen, sida kaliya ee la isugu soo celin karo waa nidaam federaal ah oo wax la wada leeyahay waxna la kala leeyahay si loo kala badbaado - the people have killed each other and all trust has been lost, the only way to reconcile the people is with a federal system where some things are shored and others devolved. At the time, Hawiye led by caydiid and Iiddoor led by Tuur refused federalism. Irir viewed themselves as victors of the civil war and as such they felt it was their right to dictate the terms of the peace and they didn't want federalism, they wanted a North-South system based on centralism. MJs refused and went on to create their own system.

Fast forward to when the TFG was created, once again MJ stated their demands for them to return to the table: federalism and power-sharing. Just like 4.5, federalism was accepted as an imperfect solution to bring the nation back together again after a brutal civil war.

This is where many proponents of centralism and supporters of HSM's centralising policies go wrong. They claim that Somalis never agreed upon Federalism. It is true that a referendum was never held, however Federalism and 4.5 were bargaining positions to bring the main warring sides together to revive the state. They are the two original pillars upon which the Somali state was reconstituted and the reason Puntland returned to the state building process in the first place (specifically federalism for them). Now, one party of the agreement (Hawiye) cannot unilaterally walk away from one of the fundamental points upon which the peace sits, namely Federalism. To do so, they have to negotiate with the original signatories (namely Puntland here). If Hawiye (or HSM as he currently represents them) persist on this choice, then Puntland will have every right to walk away as they can legitimately claim the original agreement has been broken.

In summary, Somali underwent a brutal civil war. Peace and revival of the state was brought by compromise not the barrel of the gun. That peace rests on two pillars: 4.5 and federalism. No one party can remove either pillar without the consent of all the original signatories.
Centralism becomes only a dictatorship if no one can be in charge, maybe im missing something but whats stoping a puntite to run for president. And the other thing is that we have to move forward we can´t be held hostage by ever one and to my understanding the FGS tried to offer talks
 

Libaax-Joore

Beesha haplogroup e-by8081
VIP
Centralism becomes only a dictatorship if no one can be in charge, maybe im missing something but whats stoping a puntite to run for president. And the other thing is that we have to move forward we can´t be held hostage by ever one and to my understanding the FGS tried to offer talks
Hassan gurgurte wa horgaal Ismail Omar gelle
2209508b-b9b1-499c-b17d-8cae513a9d91.jpeg
 
To centralize a state you need to first have leverage. Hsm and co seem to think the position they are in is one in which they have the political capital to do this, but the clearly dont. Trying to jam through consitiutional changes when the financier of your army just withdrew (UAE). His head has gotten big from the ppl in his ear telling him the recent events (mou, turkey deal, 'getting rid of atmis' when they are just gonna go by a new name) have given him broad range to centralize.

Its delusional, and kinda makes me think his intl handlers are giving him a play book that results in Som remaining subordinate to intl interests. Those US bases are not 'for somalis' they are for americans and MAYBE once somalia is on its feet itll get handed over. But if you make sure theyre never on their feet, congratulations now you have 5 bases at the doorstep of BRICS's african darling ethiopia.
 

Dalalos_ibn_Adali

Republican
VIP
Puntland is on the right side of history and its not like its an unpopular decision as most Somalis support PL in 2024 a stark contrast to 2021-22. Opposing the FGS is what PL does but this time its perfectly justified and we appreciate the brave stance of the mother of FMS.
 
Disclaimer:
I am a political commentator. I study the politics of the day and comment upon any salient points I come across. The commentary should not be taken to represent my personal opinion on the matter unless explicitly stated as such.

The current constitutional changes have brought to the forefront an old debate, one which predates the FGS itself but most Somalis fail to comprehend. Whether by happenstance or design, the debate is buried by layers of tribal insults and sophistry such that many fail to appreciate the finer detail.

Let me say it clearly at the beginning, Puntland's stance is not based on qabyaalad or the need to always be in control. Rather, if one is fair, Puntland's (I mean here the MJ elite's) position on this debate has remained constant since the early 90s.

When the civil war happened in 1991 and the total collapse of the state followed, major atrocities took place in the country. Dadkii way kala irdhoobeen - all good will and trust was lost between the clans. Each man returned to his ancestral homeland. To prevent the further decay of the country and total balkanization, the Somali elite accross all clans attemoted to bring the nation back together again and to reconstitute the fallen state (Abdullahi Yusuf, Caydiid, Abdirahman Tuur etc). The major sticking point at the time and today was the form of government and how power would be shared. The MJ position then was quite clear: dadkii way is dileen oo way kala aamin bexeen, sida kaliya ee la isugu soo celin karo waa nidaam federaal ah oo wax la wada leeyahay waxna la kala leeyahay si loo kala badbaado - the people have killed each other and all trust has been lost, the only way to reconcile the people is with a federal system where some things are shored and others devolved. At the time, Hawiye led by caydiid and Iiddoor led by Tuur refused federalism. Irir viewed themselves as victors of the civil war and as such they felt it was their right to dictate the terms of the peace and they didn't want federalism, they wanted a North-South system based on centralism. MJs refused and went on to create their own system.

Fast forward to when the TFG was created, once again MJ stated their demands for them to return to the table: federalism and power-sharing. Just like 4.5, federalism was accepted as an imperfect solution to bring the nation back together again after a brutal civil war.

This is where many proponents of centralism and supporters of HSM's centralising policies go wrong. They claim that Somalis never agreed upon Federalism. It is true that a referendum was never held, however Federalism and 4.5 were bargaining positions to bring the main warring sides together to revive the state. They are the two original pillars upon which the Somali state was reconstituted and the reason Puntland returned to the state building process in the first place (specifically federalism for them). Now, one party of the agreement (Hawiye) cannot unilaterally walk away from one of the fundamental points upon which the peace sits, namely Federalism. To do so, they have to negotiate with the original signatories (namely Puntland here). If Hawiye (or HSM as he currently represents them) persist on this choice, then Puntland will have every right to walk away as they can legitimately claim the original agreement has been broken.

In summary, Somali underwent a brutal civil war. Peace and revival of the state was brought by compromise not the barrel of the gun. That peace rests on two pillars: 4.5 and federalism. No one party can remove either pillar without the consent of all the original signatories.
Old man why you lying? The first politician to advocate for federalism was Cabdiraxman Tuur not Cabdilahi Yuusf who founded Buntiland as temporary autonomous Daarood state
 

Libaax-Joore

Beesha haplogroup e-by8081
VIP
Old man why you lying? The first politician to advocate for federalism was Cabdiraxman Tuur not Cabdilahi Yuusf who founded Buntiland as temporary autonomous Daarood state
Abdirahman tuur the coward that was chased from Somaliland by muse bixi 😂
War muse bixiyo wa abtiga iskada abtigis iyo abihis hawas wan dilaaya bu yiri
Habar awal wa guska iyo xiniyaha somaliland
 
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