@Thegoodshepherd what do you think
Ever since the FGS managed to exit the TFG phase in 2012, both Culusow and Farmaajo have chosen to play nice with Somaliland. They arrived at this policy from three different reasons.
Reason#1 why both Culusow and Farmaajo have chosen to play nice with Somaliland: the Dir have ~75 MPs/senators voting in presidential elections. They are single issue voters and only care about electing a president who is opposed to playing hardball with Somaliland. Even the cuck southern Dir are single issue voters on Somaliland. Farmaajo and Culusow cared more about not antagonizing this key voting block than about Somalia’s sovereignty.
Reason #2 why Farmaajo specifically chose to play nice with Somaliland: Farmaajo was a Marehan man, like MSB. This meant that he was very aware of how bad it would look if he took a hardline against Somaliland. He basically signed everything for them, offered them the capital and the presidency, and gave them an apology.
Reason#3 why Culusow specifically chose to play nice with Somaliland: HSM knows that Harti as a clan is large enough to be a huge problem if it resolved its issues with Isaaq and turned to look south. He remembers the kind of politics Harti played in koonfur politica prior to the Las Anod fiasco in 2007. When Harti was focused on koonfur, Hawiye had a hard time. HSM wanted to keep them distracted up north at the cost of damaging Somalia’s sovereignty by allowing Somaliland to position itself as equal to Somalia. HSM prioritized weakening Darod over making sure Somalia remains united.
Somalia has leaders who don’t understand the longterm at all. Most Somali leaders had no sense of urgency regarding Somaliland. I always thought that it was weird that the job of keeping Somalia’s territorial integrity and sovereignty intact was being done by the United States and not the FGS.
The SSC military defeat of Somaliland will, in the long run, be seen as the most important fact as to why Somalia did not lose its northern region. The FGS will be seen as a total failure.